Rtd208 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 So the big question, does the Euro cave to what the GFS has been showing the last couple of runs? Although the GFS did have a couple of runs where it showed a slower more dynamic/phased system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: So the big question, does the Euro cave to what the GFS has been showing the last couple of runs? Although the GFS did have a couple of runs where it showed a slower more dynamic/phased system. Considering other guidance is robust including GEFS suggests that the op gfs is otl. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Looks like a huge storm....but I don't really care for two reasons: 1) Its October. 2) Thankfully its October because the track blows. Looks like its for real, though. Better than nothing... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Seems the more intense guidance is reflecting a more tropical connection to the development of the coastal—NAM/Euro—vs the GFS and Ukie. All major guidance continues to trend west, and further from a classic Miller B.. Overall appears like a blend between the two evolutions, A/B at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like a huge storm....but I don't really care for two reasons: 1) Its October. 2) Thankfully its October because the track blows. Looks like its for real, though. Better than nothing... Euro op was much weaker last nite and east by good 100 miles Sun 12z had 974 mb mslp Thursday 8am 0z had 986 as of Thursday 8pm 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Seems the more intense guidance is reflecting a more tropical connection to the development of the coastal—NAM/Euro—vs the GFS and Ukie. All major guidance continues to trend west, and further from a classic Miller B.. Overall appears like a blend between the two evolutions, A/B at the moment... We're due for a good Pope storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro op was much weaker last nite and east by good 100 miles Sun 12z had 974 mb mslp Thursday 8am 0z had 986 as of Thursday 8pm It still shows alot of rain and wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 27 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro op was much weaker last nite and east by good 100 miles Sun 12z had 974 mb mslp Thursday 8am 0z had 986 as of Thursday 8pm Yeah, figured those other exotic solutions were a little wild. Still doesn’t change my mind that it’s nothing really crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, figured those other exotic solutions were a little wild. Still doesn’t change my mind that it’s nothing really crazy. Pickles missed some important deets. You got smoked on the Euro, model fact not any interpretation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Could be a pretty decent forced line of low topped convection that rolls through PA/NY, however, that probably weakens significantly prior to moving into our area..kinda a shame b/c that could produce a decent little swath of some wind damage. At least we'll get some heavy rain and a little wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro op was much weaker last nite and east by good 100 miles Sun 12z had 974 mb mslp Thursday 8am 0z had 986 as of Thursday 8pm ??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 It’s still a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pickles missed some important deets. You got smoked on the Euro, model fact not any interpretation. The whole thing is weird to me. Guidance is sort of all over with where what and how that secondary low forms and the wind fields around it. Verbatim I feel like only a small area just east of low center feels anything noteworthy for winds. But, where does the low track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: ??? Yea it wasn’t weaker. Looked just as wound up, but further west. Down to 970’s south of CT. The euro continues to show a microcane type feature as well. The the 3hr gust output is obviously hugely overdone (as usual), but linking it to highlight this mesoscale feature.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea it wasn’t weaker. Looked just as wound up, but further west. Down to 970’s south of CT. The euro continues to show a microcane type feature as well. The the 3hr gust output is obviously hugely overdone (as usual), but linking it to highlight this mesoscale feature.... Man Pope.. that’s a Fir Flattener right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Should be rockin and rollin Weds night. Coast is best of coarse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Toss that all day 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 LOL sell all that inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 sounds like fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 6z euro floods Moosup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Still quite dynamic on the 06z Euro as it closes off @H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: LOL sell all that inland. Obviously. Take 30% off those numbers at least. Probably 40% -50% off, inland. Anyway, the exact output with those graphics wasn’t the point. It never is at 72+ hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Obviously. Take 30% off those numbers at least. Probably 40% -50% off, inland. Anyway, the exact output with those graphics wasn’t the point. It never is at 72+ hrs.. The only point i was making was that it was west and still quite dynamic from my model interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Obviously. Take 30% off those numbers at least. Probably 40% -50% off, inland. Anyway, the exact output with those graphics wasn’t the point. It never is at 72+ hrs.. I know what you meant by posting that, it’s just so high inland all the time. That’s all I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Winds 80-100 seem likely 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 This doesn't seem like that big of a deal. Seems like there may be some sort of convective feedback going on as well within the models. This system though looks quite progressive and looks like it begins to occlude either over us or just west and the entire dynamics just sort of start crapping out. Probably be a decent slug of precip which moves through, but it does so quickly enough to probably keep flooding to poor-drainage areas. Winds probably be stronger on the backside Thursday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 20 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Winds 80-100 seem likely Km/hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 The inland winds 25-35mph should really rip down that vibrant foliage, so there's a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 I’d be much more inclined to sell the wind threat if this was winter or especially early spring. Mid October climo (SST’s) will —in general—translate to much more efficient mixing down to the surface in the warm sector pre-occlusion and in the eastern half of the system post occlusion. In terms of population impacted we need to see if this west trend persists. What do the impacts looks like if this occludes over Hartford CT or Providence RI vs Portsmouth NH? Worst impacts in terms of wind and surge shift from coastal ME to coastal MA and RI...Low probs at this point, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man Pope.. that’s a Fir Flattener right there. More likely than not, the only flattening will be of a recycle bucket or two...this will most likely underwhelm just like last weeks dud did. I’d temper expectations for the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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