CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 It really doesn’t develop a good circulation/wind response until well NE of us. Tip dropped a dime on that too earlier. Sell wind for now unless coast or cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: So just some garden variety rain and breezy conditions at best...right? Heh. not sure it’s a good idea to allow one’s self to be wrangled into day 5 precision impact calls ... I’m inclined to think less impact given these unilateral model scenarios of the system moving at like 70 miles an hour bulk velocity… It’s a zygote circulation south of Long Island and it’s deepening as it’s passing ... at an impressive rate yes, but it’s borderline whether it’s in time to really impact southern New England. I’d say the greatest impact is the upper coast of Maine up to Nova Scotia and so forth given the present modeling tenor Heights are too high from Texas well prior being ejected out of the West, out along the gulf coast/Florida/adjacent southwest Atlantic basin. This whole amplitude is kind of like a rock skipping off a pond - spatial metaphor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Not if blocking takes place =) That’s kind of a problem - it’s hard to develop blocking with an antecedent fast flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That’s kind of a problem - it’s hard to develop blocking with an antecedent fast flow How do you know that? Conjecture 50 /50 shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 It’s called fluid mechanics ... Aspects certain folk had to learn all proper like y’all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It’s called fluid mechanics ... Aspects certain ****head to learn all proper like y’all Thanks Nostradamus. I know more about fluid mechanics than you I can promise you that, on paper and in practice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thanks Nostradamus. I know more about fluid mechanics than you I can promise you that, on paper and in practice I’m sure you do. fast flows are physically prohibitive of blocking. Unfortunately resumes aside that principal exist regardless of whether we want to believe it or not Navier-Stokes for the “wind” Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I’m sure you do. fast flows are physically prohibitive of blocking. Unfortunately resumes aside that principal exist regardless of whether we want to believe it or not Navier-Stokes for the “wind” Ha! How the heck do you "know" what the flow will be like in 2.5 months is my point. You don't, you are making a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: How the heck do you "know" what the flow will be like in 2.5 months is my point. You don't, you are making a guess. Well .. obviously. But it’s an educated guess, One based upon classic meteorological principles combined with empirical trend analysis - the latter of which spans two decades now; and as such, both converging on a very possible predominating winter characteristic It’s hilarious… People seem to ignore and/or want to battle this concept yet the instant the hemisphere tries to cool off from the north south what’s the first thing that happens? we get a storm developing moving at ludicrous speed amid a cosmic jet - right out of the gates right out of the gates. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well .. obviously. But it’s an educated guess, One based upon classic meteorological principles combined with empirical trend analysis - the latter of which spans two decades now; and as such, both converging on a very possible predominating winter characteristic Good luck, like I said 50 50 shot. Funny thing is a couple of transient blocks is all that's required. 2 snowiest decades of my life with your fast flow with literally 10s of blockbuster crawlers 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 lol, Nam, 965mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: lol, Nam, 965mb Even down here it is a sub 990 low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Good luck, like I said 50 50 shot. Funny thing is a couple of transient blocks is all that's required. 2 snowiest decades of my life with your fast flow with literally 10s of blockbuster crawlers What does any of that and your snow experience have to do with fast flow? u seem to be taking some kind of exception to the notion of a fast flow like you don’t want it to happen ...?more than analyzing objectively/considering weather can so I’m done with this conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 I think this ends up uderwhelming those of us on land. A little too far off the coast for meaningful wind impact or prolonged +RA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 NAM has some sort of accelerated jet or stinger on south side of low. 110kts at 925? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: What does any of that and your snow experience have to do with fast flow? u seem to be taking some kind of exception to the notion of a fast flow like you don’t want it to happen ...?more than analyzing objectively/considering weather can so I’m done with this conversation. I have zero problems with people forecasting fast flow a week to 10 days out, 2.5 months is voodoo but lets get back on topic. Helluva subsume off the NJ coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: What does any of that and your snow experience have to do with fast flow? u seem to be taking some kind of exception to the notion of a fast flow like you don’t want it to happen ...?more than analyzing objectively/considering weather can so I’m done with this conversation. Well, it does seem like we have been discussing "fast flow" as the current paradigm for quite a while now. More than just 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Well, it does seem like we have been discussing "fast flow" as the current paradigm for quite a while now. More than just 2019. We have yes. Point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM has some sort of accelerated jet or stinger on south side of low. 110kts at 925? Just from looking at the 500 mb evolution it almost looks like -I thought - convective feedback at first and then the low gets relayed into the troughs quasi-g forcing. The other aspect is that the entire structure this thing is much slower than the global models in this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 NAM actually slows stalls and captures as it approaches the Maine coast. Pretty spectacular model.run at any rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM has some sort of accelerated jet or stinger on south side of low. 110kts at 925? That jet on all models is extreme, the NAM incorporates it unlike the others at 18Z although the Euro did at 12 Z. As pointed out earlier in this thread that jet is a huge player Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 What’s the source of that… I mean that could also be a troposphere fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That jet on all models is extreme, the NAM incorporates it unlike the others at 18Z although the Euro did at 12 Z. As pointed out earlier in this thread that jet is a huge player Is that the jet coming from down in the gulf/tropical feed you were showing earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 29 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I think this ends up uderwhelming those of us on land. A little too far off the coast for meaningful wind impact or prolonged +RA. Lol I think that’d be the obvious safe way to go...cuz that’s what almost always happens with these, so bet the streak, until it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Maybe the models begin to pick on faster flow and this misses phasing. I'm not interested in 2-3" of rain so weenies on Nantucket can see tropical force gusts. Not that I have a choice of course. Seems clear to me the “models” already have. this particular run of this model appears to be an outlier solution fwiw. Things can change if the others come around. My guess is they’re going to have similar solutions though if not tonight theyll go back to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 It's a nice little system but nothing too crazy until eastern CNE/NNE. Still it's a decent rain event with some gusty winds. I don't see any blocking so this thing should be speeding through quickly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What’s the source of that… I mean that could also be a troposphere fold Yeah I think that is a trop fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: We have yes. Point? Point is that this ends up further E as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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