dryslot Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 I probably should make sure the outside door is latched seeing winds are out of the SE or it may end up in the back of my truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 The 12z HRRR does hint at the all so slight possibility for a brief tornado on the CAPE tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 It's almost time to sign back up for weathermodels.... I'm going to exercise self control until post thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Going to be quite breezy on the Southern Maine coast according to the 12z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 We October Gale of Yore 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 IOSN3 is going to rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: IOSN3 is going to rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 This may calve off a chunk of my street cred for advancing this, but that ICON solution looks the best to me right now for just the general overview. I mean.. if not including the tedious, electron tunneling microscopy for the purpose of 'carpet surfing' crack nuggets of excitement that we do with these wind-product this and QPF special studies that.. Just the general. The surface pressure and QPF layouts, when looking at the 500H evolution and balancing in the conceptual layout of the general mass-fields involved, appear on point. The secondary detonation/zygote takes place between 18 and 00z over NE VA and then gets sucked up the coastal Plain, then ends up passing over western LI into CT is highly acceptable to me with almost no boundary layer resistance to "tilt" the vortex - I mentioned this earlier about the low moving quicker than normal toward Q-G forcing collocation. I also like the model not falling for the tempting convection potential arcing seaward over the Gulf Stream that the NAM and even the Euro has been fiddling around with using to the change the orbit of Jupiter. It has a triple point - sort of - reflection out there as this thing is cutting toward NH and that's probably closer to reality in my mind. You know... there's an upshot here. This is a great preseason game for ginning up and dusting off the assessment/diagnostic acumen for later on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: We October Gale of Yore Did some reading on previous gales. Cannot believe some of those had Cat 2-3 conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Wife's friend lands in MHT tomorrow in the middle of a potential record low October SLP. Good thing she isn't coming in 6-12hrs sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Always cool to see the barometer slip under 29 inches. You know you’re in for something good whenever that happens . Any consensus yet on where it should bottom out regionally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Any consensus yet on where it should bottom out regionally? Generally speaking somewhere from ORH to CON. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 The RPM really nails the Cape with winds. Looks like sustained like 30-40 knots when the worst moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Starting to buy in. Seems like Cape and south shore locked in for some big gusts. Still skeptical outside of the 'normal' windy spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 The cold front seems to be moving east a bit more quickly than models show. It's not significantly quicker, but that could have major implications on how/where things evolve. Anyways, it does look like there is a meso-low popping off the NC coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 3 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: Been reading most of the posts here. Has anything changed? Seems most folks were saying no big deal or going east.. meh etc. Flying back from Atlanta this morning.. captain said lots of turbulence off the east coast and will need to fly at lower alt. So should I bring my lawn chairs in? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Well if the lawn chairs are out on the wings of the plane ………I'm surprised the pilot hasn't noticed the lawn chairs...….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 still not a fan of low level lapse rates away from the beaches. prayers for the pitch pines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 If I'm a Pilgrim and I get off the Mayflower and build my thatch hut and then this shit happens, it is beyond me why they didn't just pack up the boat and head back to England... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: still not a fan of low level lapse rates away from the beaches. prayers for the pitch pines they're garbage...completely pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Not your typical looking dual jet structure, but we're tilting negative. While approaching peak maturity the best divergent region does appear to collocate over the mesolow moving into SE MA. I don't look at H25 and think near record low pressures though with 100-120kt streaks, but I won't pretend to be able to do all of the calculus in my head better than the models. It does make me think we need a potent mesolow to make this go nuclear though. As has been stated ad nauseam, the models have been fairly consistent with some semblance of that feature. It'll be fun to watch it play out. Too bad BOX is shutting down the radar to replace a few USB cables. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: still not a fan of low level lapse rates away from the beaches. prayers for the pitch pines Yeah...I'm still on the E MA/E NH/S ME train and the CAA will probably be the usual windy conditions. The exotic stuff will be east of the low. We do raise the low level lapse rates a bit as that TROWAL and LLJ get pulled into S NH. Get a little g-wave action and some +RA and maybe we can mix something decent down after midnight. That's around the time the Nammy starts getting wild (for our standards) up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: If I'm a Pilgrim and I get off the Mayflower and build my thatch hut and then this shit happens, it is beyond me why they didn't just pack up the boat and head back to England... Imagine their reaction after the 1635 hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 NAM seems to bring the main low just east of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: NAM seems to bring the main low just east of Boston That would be zzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Lightning beginning to pick up off the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: That would be zzz Nah-a flood is fun too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Nice ribbon on radar associated with the front .. W. PA/W. VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Lightning beginning to pick up off the SC coast. there's a signal CB with it's anvil rocketing due east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: there's a signal CB with it's anvil rocketing due east Be interesting to see if any additional convection develops over the next few hours. I wish it was closer to land and an actual radar site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 41 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Well if the lawn chairs are out on the wings of the plane ………I'm surprised the pilot hasn't noticed the lawn chairs...….. back home now, flight was not that bad had its moments. latest HRRR has 50-60mph gusts in my hood.. but I will take the under ... still should be pretty windy, power outages are likely in usual areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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