OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Well after grinding all night to finish (between actually doing the forecast) I've come up with a multiple regression equation that explains roughly 60% of the variance in wind gusts at PWM. 32 + (50% 925 wind) + (90% lapse rates sfc to 925) - (5% of sfc to 925 depth) Based on the 06z NAM bufkit for PWM, that gives me a first guess gust of 47.6 knots at PWM. I kind of like it. Still have to test this against some independent data, but results are promising. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is looking like a possible big deal NH or Maine coast. Most guidance nails that area. Euro nails Cape Cod the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well after grinding all night to finish (between actually doing the forecast) I've come up with a multiple regression equation that explains roughly 60% of the variance in wind gusts at PWM. 32 + (50% 925 wind) + (90% lapse rates sfc to 925) - (5% of sfc to 925 depth) Based on the 06z NAM bufkit for PWM, that gives me a first guess gust of 47.6 knots at PWM. I kind of like it. Still have to test this against some independent data, but results are promising. Run that for RKD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro nails Cape Cod the worst Euro also doesn't have 09z output to show what happens between there and Penobscot Bay. I think the LLJ maxes out somewhere around Cape Ann to PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Few inches of rain here and maybe gust into the 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: Even 60+ up here as it gets tugged in. Kraft with you? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Run that for RKD. Spits out 50 knots around 12z. I'm pretty happy my equation will actually produce HWW criteria. My first attempts really fell short on the high end events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 It's just going to come down to how and when any little meso low forms. Even on the euro, you can see these features when looking at the little narrow 1hr and 3hr QPF swaths. Big winds would be just east of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: Spits out 50 knots around 12z. I'm pretty happy my equation will actually produce HWW criteria. My first attempts really fell short on the high end events. Strong work on that equation BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 The good news is it all makes sense. The higher your wind and lapse rates the higher the potential wind gust, and the higher the 925 depth the lower your potential wind gust (inverse relationship there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Strong work on that equation BTW. In an ideal world the independent analysis will show that the first guess is within 10 knots 100% of the time (as the study I modeled this off of found). Hopefully it's even better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 James gonna be blown to PTown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: In an ideal world the independent analysis will show that the first guess is within 10 knots 100% of the time (as the study I modeled this off of found). Hopefully it's even better than that. There is definitely some meso scale features that will drive the winds too. Tough to nail those as well. I'm also starting to wonder if areas esp in SE MA should focus again on the CAA stuff. Pretty good agreement on 40-50kt potential there from the SW. Not a usual direction for that with foliation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Nice work Chris. Grinding math and diaper changes simultaneously is no easy feat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: There is definitely some meso scale features that will drive the winds too. Tough to nail those as well. I'm also starting to wonder if areas esp in SE MA should focus again on the CAA stuff. Pretty good agreement on 40-50kt potential there from the SW. Not a usual direction for that with foliation. Looks a little sting-y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: James gonna be blown in PTown Wet weenies ftw no matter how it’s done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's just going to come down to how and when any little meso low forms. Even on the euro, you can see these features when looking at the little narrow 1hr and 3hr QPF swaths. Big winds would be just east of that. It seems that this shouldn’t remain a mystery for long. The mesolow—if it develops—is currently developing off the Carolina coast. That much is consistent across the guidance which has it. We watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Just now, jbenedet said: It seems that this shouldn’t remain a mystery for long. The mesolow—if it develops—is currently developing off the Carolina coast. That much is consistent across the guidance which has it. We watch. Well there might be a series of weak ones, is what I mean. Almost g-wave features. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Is it safe to say around this time tomorrow that the heaviest precip. should be done with over southern NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Thinking 45-50 for all of SNE either with storm or after with 65-74 CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, 512high said: Is it safe to say around this time tomorrow that the heaviest precip. should be done with over southern NH? Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, 512high said: Is it safe to say around this time tomorrow that the heaviest precip. should be done with over southern NH? Your window is like 10 pm to 4 am or so I think. HREF is painting quite a bullish picture for QPF for the upslope in NH and VT. Even taking 60-80% of QPF is like 3-4". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Not a good time for no radar coverage for a chunk of populated SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Hopefully this one is better than last week's nor'leaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Can't wait for my TROWDAL. Do the dews. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Been reading most of the posts here. Has anything changed? Seems most folks were saying no big deal or going east.. meh etc. Flying back from Atlanta this morning.. captain said lots of turbulence off the east coast and will need to fly at lower alt. So should I bring my lawn chairs in?Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Euro also doesn't have 09z output to show what happens between there and Penobscot Bay. I think the LLJ maxes out somewhere around Cape Ann to PWM. You dont get hourly Euro output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: You dont get hourly Euro output? No we don't. We are already paying for WeatherBell, we aren't going to get approval for WeatherModels too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 The HRRR definitely has traceable features that have associated wind maxes within the larger LLJ. So there will likely be some convective elements that get ingested into the system that will have locally higher wind potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: No we don't. We are already paying for WeatherBell, we aren't going to get approval for WeatherModels too. Switch lol only 10 month and a helluva lot more data. Also he gives you a test site lab.weathermodels.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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