forkyfork Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 these LL lapse rates stink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 thanks forky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 29 minutes ago, forkyfork said: these LL lapse rates stink Why would you pick that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 I don't have a problem gusting to 44 mph here and there west of I-95 out in the hills and so forth, no.. . Folks are put off by "pedestrian" semantics ... That doesn't mean no impact - it just means reign in the . We've had storms deeper with actual lapse rates and still mysteriously failed to bring 60 mph wind much west of the immediate coastal zones before. This one, in every sounding I've seen, has some sort of positive region between the surface 100 mb up or so. I also don't like pressures falling at the same time as low rapidly approaches, because that means the approach is negating the mass restoring wind response on the front side, and adding some inversion, 44 mph seems a decent compromise. As far as the arm of the Cape, light house at Marble head or the comms tower atop Blue Hill.. I think the NAMs grid winds in the 35 ... 42 mph range from the west at LGA after the low passes is an indication of potential isoll. wind pulse btw.. I'm surprised no one's mentioned lightning and thunder ... seems with UVM that spiked, QPF that high in short duration, and LI's nearing 0, that's a pretty good indirection for thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 41 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We approve of this forecaster’s preferences: Thursday will be a raw and almost winter like day (who prefers snow to cold rain? *raises hand*) Traditionalism speaking but ... it's been awhile since we've had a sold cold rain, autumn spin up - like...years actually. When I was growing up in the region through the ..eh hm, latter part of last century, there was always a wind swept cold rain nor'easter somewhere along the ides of autumn. They were like the season's bar mitzvah - afterward the season is accountable for its own action, haha. But..sort of the unofficial kick off ceremonial rite of passage .. Or how about a shot across the bow storm. And they were always in October, too. I've thought of this month as being remarkably ... unremarkable. Like a prototypical October - to me it seems fitting symbolically anyway, that we're setting this up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That’s what I expected but he didn’t really explain it. The average person would expect major winds. He typically would state this is just one model. He is on again now so I will see what he says this round I say this with 100% certainty the average person is down right moronic when it comes to interpreting a weather forecast /map or anything conveyed by a meteorologist. At work where I’m a trainer I call the people out bc they all kno I’m a crazed weather fanatic. I’ll quiz them like they are children on what they think they got from the weather report and often they say “ooo well I saw a raindrop on the frdiay of next week so that means it’s gonna rain all day , they are always wrong “ Then I will literally say or is it possible you just have no idea how to interpret or understand or put effort into understanding what they are really saying ...blank stares...then I laugh and make them do milf squats and encourage them to message me personally for a real.. forecast 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Let's see what happens overnight/first thing in the AM. Supposedly some convection from the SE will be breaking off and coming up the coast and then boom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Let's see what happens overnight/first thing in the AM. Supposedly some convection from the SE will be breaking off and coming up the coast and then boom. It's funny ..when I know I'm making a more profound insightful weather post, I get 0 "likes" but when I say anything like "big wind" or "snow" even accidentally ... I get three likes and two thankyou yanks. Again...why isn't anyone mentioning thunderstorms in this thing? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's funny ..when I know I'm making a more profound insightful weather post, I get 0 "likes" but when I say anything like "big wind" or "snow" even accidentally ... I get three likes and two thankyou yanks. Again...why isn't anyone mentioning thunderstorms in this thing? I am not overly impressed with thunder chances with this one...although an opportunity may exist across SE MA where it looks like there will be a spike in theta-e. Even with the dynamics/forcing present, it doesn't appear elevated instability is really enough to spark thunder chances...might have just enough to yield some convective elements which would help with some localized bursts of stronger gusts but I would like it more if we could poke a couple hundred J of elevated CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's funny ..when I know I'm making a more profound insightful weather post, I get 0 "likes" but when I say anything like "big wind" or "snow" even accidentally ... I get three likes and two thankyou yanks. Again...why isn't anyone mentioning thunderstorms in this thing? Noyes sure is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I am not overly impressed with thunder chances with this one...although an opportunity may exist across SE MA where it looks like there will be a spike in theta-e. Even with the dynamics/forcing present, it doesn't appear elevated instability is really enough to spark thunder chances...might have just enough to yield some convective elements which would help with some localized bursts of stronger gusts but I would like it more if we could poke a couple hundred J of elevated CAPE I'm not talking about crispy CB's rollin' out under the tropopause next to clear air side sun on a hot late afternoon... I'm talking sheet lightning and occasional thunder... and heavier convective elements contained (with regional LI's nearing 0 there's instability off the deck) and those extreme height falls while the lower thickness are still supporting 50 F, there's possibility for mixing vertically from that alone - I'd think for the tree-leaner mongering folks might be interested in that sort of thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Noyes sure is As I was just discussing with Wiz' ... I'm thinking more along the lines of elevated convection with sporadic lightning ... I wasn't going "damaging" adjectives my self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not talking about crispy CB's rollin' out under the tropopause next to clear air side sun on a hot late afternoon... I'm talking sheet lightning and occasional thunder... and heavier convective elements contained (with regional LI's nearing 0 there's instability off the deck) and those extreme height falls while the lower thickness are still supporting 50 F, there's possibility for mixing vertically from that alone - I'd think for the tree-leaner mongering folks might be interested in that sort of thing... We're on the same page in terms of what you meant regarding the type of convection. I agree there is some instability off the deck, but IMO it's just too weak to really generate a higher probability for thunder. I think that instability is just enough to really enhance rainfall rates locally. I know we have the super strong support from the trough and s/w energy, but I'm not sure if that alone is enough to generate much in the way of thunder potential. However, I think there is thunder potential across RI/SE MA...with instability being enhanced by steepening lapse rates and northeast racing dry slot. This is where you also get richer llvl theta-e advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Euro looks like some serious winds around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not talking about crispy CB's rollin' out under the tropopause next to clear air side sun on a hot late afternoon... I'm talking sheet lightning and occasional thunder... and heavier convective elements contained (with regional LI's nearing 0 there's instability off the deck) and those extreme height falls while the lower thickness are still supporting 50 F, there's possibility for mixing vertically from that alone - I'd think for the tree-leaner mongering folks might be interested in that sort of thing... Euro lightning product Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 Kevs boy all in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro looks like some serious winds around here. It’s hard to blow up a barometer so quickly without big winds in these parts. 6 hr falls are top of the chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Kevs boy all in All that is missing is a landphoon capable of displacing baby sharks from the Atlantic onto the hilltops of SNE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 There's pretty siggy lift on some of the guidance. Someone's gonna get smoked in the rainfall dept at the least. Maybe lollis to 4-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 The 3km nam sim radar had what looked to be supercell south of MVY earlier. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro looks like some serious winds around here. Couple spin ups SE SNE possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 18Z Euro is much more reasonable with wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 18Z Euro is much more reasonable with wind gusts We damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Kevs boy all in James, is that you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 18Z Euro is much more reasonable with wind gusts 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 18Z Euro is much more reasonable with wind gusts Weaker system ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 60-70 mph gusts ... I'll take the under on that Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Weaker system ? Less convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 More consolidated on the 18z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: 60-70 mph gusts ... I'll take the under on that Euro Probably should annotate my wind posts with 25 % reduction. Still think 35 to 45 inland gusts 60 coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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