MJO812 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS going meso low on roids, but well east. Its west down here but similar up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Its west down here but similar up there. I mean the meso low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Why can’t we(US)create a decent model? That model(GFS) sucked before the big upgrade, and it still does? Is it that difficult? Europeans can do it, but we can’t...holy smokes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 I think you always have to question the Nam's output though in these types of systems where it try's to handle or mishandle's the convection and always seems to struggle to where to locate the slp as it has spurious spokes of voticties rotating around where it thinks the slp should be located, Right now, I would favor something a little more tracking to the east and not as amped as the Nam portrays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Congrats picnic tables. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Maybe take a ride on the COG on thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 The more tame ideas are probably the sensible ones. Unless we see what the Pope says start to really develop down in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Well, Tame in a sense you could put it as mid high 970's not mid low 960'smb................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Well, Tame in a sense you could put it as mid high 970's not mid low 960'smb................. Yes absolutely...relatively speaking I should have mentioned. Mid 970’s is still a powerful system for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 12z GFS yesterday vs today for storm track. Woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 I don't buy any of this right now. Sell. Let's see that development before the NAM lures the entire board and region into thinking there is a mini hurricane on the way. This could end up being a glorified squall line of 40 mph winds, a few downed limbs and wires. Not enough evidence of a larger event yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I don't buy any of this right now. Sell. Let's see that development before the NAM lures the entire board and region into thinking there is a mini hurricane on the way. This could end up being a glorified squall line of 40 mph winds, a few downed limbs and wires. Not enough evidence of a larger event yet. Gfs is pretty close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 36 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I dunno, maybe I’m oversimplifying this, but to me the whole problem gets reduced to this: either we see nascent signs of a tropical disturbance develop off the SE coast today, or we don’t. If it’s the latter, the less amped 0z/6z euro-esque solution is the most likely outcome. I think it really is that simple. This jet structure does not favor significant low pressure development off the SE coast. Agree w/ Scott that the RGEM makes the most sense synoptically. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 GFS brushes the Cape and islands with a 50-60 kt 925 jet. By the time this really gets going it's legit already east of SNE. The Cape will likely see some decent wind gusts, but this is also going to be short duration wind episode...unless you want to count having the strong WNW/NW gusts Thursday as well. The rainfall rates will be the most impressive aspect of this event really...thankfully this is the fast mover it is, but the rain rates under the strongest lift are going to be pretty ridiculous. Someone could pop an inch in like 20-minutes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 56 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I dunno, maybe I’m oversimplifying this, but to me the whole problem gets reduced to this: either we see nascent signs of a tropical disturbance develop off the SE coast today, or we don’t. If it’s the latter, the less amped 0z/6z euro-esque solution is the most likely outcome. I tend to agree here re outside <-- inward influencing ..yeah. On a more globular philosophical level, whether we are infusing TC's or phantom convectively driven faux vorticity packets ... the end result is the same: the modeled depiction of the system gets a boost in either case. Obviously the convective feedback is the less likely of the two, and as to the other ... if we don't see some sort of TC detonation and pretty darn soon than ( I feel ) it is more likely the Euro'esque runs will succeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 If it was March, there would be half as many pages. I think this thing is just a product of bored summer weenies awaking after a long slumber. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: If it was March, there would be half as many pages. I think this thing is just a product of bored summer weenies awaking after a long slumber. If this was March we would have 80 pages 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 If this were any winter month, most of this board would be filled with angry rain comments. The terms "Congrats Logan 11 and PF" would be abundant. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Tobin would be closed to pedestrian traffic 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 what are the chances of a few F0/1 spin ups? I'm overdue for one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If this were any winter month, most of this board would be filled with angry rain comments. The terms "Congrats Logan 11 and PF" would be abundant. You would have people feverishly hitting F5 only to get a 404 board error. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 2 hours ago, Hoth said: Maybe for the specific date? Dunno, would have to think Sandy will hold that record indefinitely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Perhaps this is incorrect, but this is what it appears with regards to the "dual lows" at the surface. The wave which comes inland looks like the main wave which develops along the cold front. The secondary low looks to be the one which forms from the modeled SE convection. This low then completely blows up due to 1) phasing with the vigorous s/w energy with the trough and looks like enhancement from the jet max surrounding the base of the upper trough. This outcome then completely covers the solution with puke. It looks like the LLJ with the frontal wave is nothing out of the ordinary...but with what happens b/c of that other low and the significant strengthening which occurs you get a response in the LLJ to go wild...forgetting even the wind potential this then increase theta-e advection, moisture transport, and PWAT values into the region...add extra lift and extra moisture and the response is bonkers QPF. Naturally, as a low develops and strengthens along the front, you'll get a LLJ increase, however, the big question here is what is the driving point behind the strengthening of the frontal wave? Going to rule out dynamics here based on the structure of the ULJ and MLJ...so the next explanation would be a tightening thermal gradient...but is it possible this is being enhanced b/c of that secondary low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 I am more concerned with MCS development bringing down high winds. Anyone with an idea what the quickest fall Baro drop is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thanks Steve! That's a cool map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Congrats picnic tables. Interesting GFS run there, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Paul, Correct me if i'm wrong, But I think your missing the primary low over western NY that transfers to the secondary over SNE and then has that blob of convection off to the SE over the atlantic specifically on the NAM as the model can't resolve where it wants to develop the secondary SLP until it consolidates it further downstream into one slp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Should almost be euro time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Paul, Correct me if i'm wrong, But I think your missing the primary low over western NY that transfers to the secondary over SNE and then has that blob of convection off to the SE over the atlantic specifically on the NAM as the model can't resolve where it wants to develop the secondary SLP until it consolidates it further downstream into one slp. What I was doing was trying to follow the main pieces of vort energy along with SLP maps. From doing this that's how I derived what I mentioned above. You do have that main primary low over NYS which then seems to weaken ("transfer energy" to the coast)...which may be a product of occlusion. Speaking of transferring of energy to the coast I forgot what class it was but we discussed this briefly one day and the professor showed us some paper or something...anyways basically discussed how the concept of energy transfer (from low to the next across the east coast) is not actually correct. But if you sort of track that sfc low (which I highlighted as frontal wave or whatever) it seems to develop (defining this when a closed contour appears) right along the cold front. Obviously this is nothing new with fronts and I'm sure this gets enhanced by the anomalous upper-trough, but I think the entire system gets injected with steroids with what it does with this s/w energy that rides up the coast...seems like that stuff goes crazy when it interacts with the negative tilt and the jet streak rounds the base of the trough. This is too complex lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 That dynamic cooling on the GFS is pretty crazy. Oh how we can dream. Thats an elevation blue bomb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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