CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Euro makes some sense. I dunno...soundings show a decent inversion too as WAA floods aloft. BOX with a reasonable AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Catskill Killer. Breezy rains incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Although like Chris said, very dynamic system. I suppose a micro low or two may pop, but that is a nowcast deal i think. The interior won't see much wind at all. Looks wedgy there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 7 hours ago, dryslot said: I think it was Becks dark, You have to have some very bad things happen to sink a pontoon boat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Although like Chris said, very dynamic system. I suppose a micro low or two may pop, but that is a nowcast deal i think. The interior won't see much wind at all. Looks wedgy there too. Quick go through of some point-and-click soundings across the interior have an inversion...doesn't look overly strong, but as we've seen in the past even a very weak inversion will limit winds. GFS bufkit is actually sustained like pretty much tropical storm force across at CHH. We'll have to see much much rain does fall (thankfully this is a quick mover) but there could be tree damage/power outages Thursday...still looks like some decent winds on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Although like Chris said, very dynamic system. I suppose a micro low or two may pop, but that is a nowcast deal i think. The interior won't see much wind at all. Looks wedgy there too. Not with warm SST’s unless by inkand you mean VT It is going to roar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Not with warm SST’s unless by inkand you mean VT What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not with warm SST’s unless by inkand you mean VT It is going to roar Not where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: What? That 80F water! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not where you are. Winds off the water would scrub out the low level cold....at least I think that's what he is saying. Edit...meant to quote Jerry, clicked on wrong quote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 8 hours ago, dryslot said: I think it was Becks dark, You have to have some very bad things happen to sink a pontoon boat. i've seen it happen in person. 2 primary factors: excessive amounts of beer; and excessive amounts of people on the boat. talking 2-3x capacity. the other way it can happen: pontoon falls off. i've not seen that happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: What? If it was winter we’d see an inversion. The warm SST’s will allow the Lower levels of atmosphere to remain warm relatively speaking well north and west.. thus offering strong winds inland . Different story if waters were cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: If it was winter we’d see an inversion. The warm SST’s will allow the Lower levels of atmosphere to remain warm relatively speaking well north and west.. thus offering strong winds inland . Different story if waters were cool Sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Winds off the water would scrub out the low level cold....at least I think that's what he is saying. We get plenty of stout LLJs in October, and they don't all produce widespread wind gusts. If SSTs drove our wind potential, we'd never get wind events in January and February. While it may have some influence, it's not very high up the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If it was winter we’d see an inversion. The warm SST’s will allow the Lower levels of atmosphere to remain warm relatively speaking well north and west.. thus offering strong winds inland . Different story if waters were cool SST's are going to be > sfc temps Also SST's are what in Long Island...lower 60's? That's not exactly "warm". We're dealing with a stable airmass here...if we got into the warm sector it would be a different story. If you want wind just wait to Thursday...we'll get our wind then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 will be very interesting to see if the deep convection off the GA coast develops a weak SLP today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 E MA/E NH/ME would be fairly windy on the 6z NAM as it pulls a blizzard loop and the LLJ gets pulled a bit westward as it swings northward. But yeah.......NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Yeah, I can’t wait until I get my NW winds gusting to 35 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Although like Chris said, very dynamic system. I suppose a micro low or two may pop, but that is a nowcast deal i think. The interior won't see much wind at all. Looks wedgy there too. This will sadden several. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 52 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: At least that kept the language on the narrative clean, Can only imagine if alcohol would have been involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just because many don't have access . Mslp. No conjecture about wind. Just showing model timing and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, I can’t wait until I get my NW winds gusting to 35 mph. And that's how the interior areas get wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: SST's are going to be > sfc temps Also SST's are what in Long Island...lower 60's? That's not exactly "warm". We're dealing with a stable airmass here...if we got into the warm sector it would be a different story. If you want wind just wait to Thursday...we'll get our wind then To me our best bet for 45+ is tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Just because many don't have access . Mslp. No conjecture about wind. Just showing model timing and track. Any conjectures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 Since it looks like we set low barometric pressures in the area for October probably uncharted territory for deepening rate in Oct too, hard to find analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Any conjectures? Looking at some things right now but since this is overnight tomorrow I will wait for tomorrows runs before having to get help to pull my genny out of the shed. Oct 17 keeps dancing in my head though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: will be very interesting to see if the deep convection off the GA coast develops a weak SLP today. Bingo...this is pretty much the key between anomalous (that trough digging in is already going to be pretty anomalous...in terms of strength) and super-anomalous. The NAM goes wild with some convective blob across GA lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Looking at some things right now but since this is overnight tomorrow I will wait for tomorrows runs before having to get help to pull my genny out of the shed. Oct 17 keeps dancing in my head though. I thought the post you made last night was a pretty solid layout for what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: To me our best bet for 45+ is tomorrow night I don't think we're in the game for that. The Cape and Islands get the good winds here. This just isn't a good wind setup for us. I would suspect 35-45 mph gusts Thursday...NAM is a bit stronger with this potential but NW winds around the backside of systems is typically good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't think we're in the game for that. The Cape and Islands get the good winds here. This just isn't a good wind setup for us. I would suspect 35-45 mph gusts Thursday...NAM is a bit stronger with this potential but NW winds around the backside of systems is typically good for us. Couple of caveats to wind. Gravity waves and monsoon rains can tap and wash out inversions to the point damaging winds can occur. Trees are leaved and many are dead, lowering wind speed potential for damage. Still early on the wind dept. Sucks BOX radar decided to go off line, yes decided. OKX velocity is bent right at my location. I used BOX during high wind events and it works great here. We wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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