HoarfrostHubb Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Would be nice to get most of the leaves down early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: He said in that tweet, thunder storm winds in the negative trough. I know Forky can't read but et tu? I'm not putting that much effort into cranky to read a twitter thread. He has neg trough winds and frontal winds so idk what the difference is. Based on the graphic I would think "frontal winds" is more CAA NW gradient related. Whatever though...it's just weird terminology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Maybe he's thinking Lake Quinsigamond? "That party boat was the pride of the Shrewsbury side, coming back from some dive bar in Worcerster. As the pontoon boats go it was drunker than most with the crew and good captain all heavin". The wreck of the evan pontoonin? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: We take 25% off. What makes me a little unsettled for gusts higher than 40 are how the mesolows fuji around each other on the Euro. Those dry slot gravity waves took us out before too. Just checked with Fisher, baro low record in Oct in Boston is 982, good possibility this takes it down. Dont think this has enough spatial time to ramp up huge areal area winds but if as modeled depict, some areas could be in for a good blow 40% off all the time Just like hobby lobby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Now batting 0z nammy o/u mslp 970 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: We may see the Edmund Fitzgerald scenarios but on area SNE lakes Yeah those seasonal docks and loosely moored camp ground row boats might end up in lyrical lore alright 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 21 minutes ago, dryslot said: The wreck of the evan pontoonin? Nah. I say he likely had already wrecked a half dozen St Pauli Girls before that post.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Nah. I say he likely had already wrecked a half dozen St Pauli Girls before that post.. I think it was Becks dark, You have to have some very bad things happen to sink a pontoon boat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: 40% off all the time Just like hobby lobby Nah, not at the 12 hr before kickoff run. 25 to 30% works here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 29 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm not putting that much effort into cranky to read a twitter thread. He has neg trough winds and frontal winds so idk what the difference is. Based on the graphic I would think "frontal winds" is more CAA NW gradient related. Whatever though...it's just weird terminology. Lol its actually in that post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 FWIW BOX is going with 35-50 kt gusts on the coastal plain right now. I don't think that's an unreasonable forecast. These never seem to work out here in NW Essex county however. I'll pretty much always take the under on these events for wind in these parts. October 29-30 2017 was an exception here though, LWM gusted to 51mph before it stopped reporting. I would guess we had a few 65/70 gusts that night. Surprisingly that event doesn't get talked abut much as it was an interesting setup. Those big pines were snapping all over that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Congrats Rutvegas on the 0z Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: Congrats Rutvegas on the 0z Congrats Boston on the cane on the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Nice rainstorm for many on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said: FWIW BOX is going with 35-50 kt gusts on the coastal plain right now. I don't think that's an unreasonable forecast. These never seem to work out here in NW Essex county however. I'll pretty much always take the under on these events for wind in these parts. October 29-30 2017 was an exception here though, LWM gusted to 51mph before it stopped reporting. I would guess we had a few 65/70 gusts that night. Surprisingly that event doesn't get talked abut much as it was an interesting setup. Those big pines were snapping all over that night. Yea, it will be mundane here. No doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 wow Hi-Res nam damaging winds islands, cape east essex/ Cape Ann (65-80mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Gfs shifted west with the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs shifted west with the low Oh' how I pray for a valley dryslot. Deep rain deficit here but would rather make it up slowly. Not too worried about winds, out here those are only a worry for the 1k+ club in the hill towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 If model trends hold, somewhere in WNE or ENY will see a period of prolific rains. Luckily this will move relatively fast until it possibly retros over Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Canadian a tad west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 I'm working on some VERY preliminary research up here on stable/neutral wind events and unsurprisingly the best correlation is 925 mb wind speed followed by 925 mb to surface lapse rates. I'm still working out the regression equation but it's roughly 50% of the 925 mb and 80% of the lapse rates (positive is more unstable). But since lapse rates rarely are in excess of 10 C/km, that only "adds" at most 10 knots to the forecast gusts. So 925 wind speed does a lot of the work in my regression. Would suggest 30-35 knots is a fine place to start. That's using the GYX sounding and PWM gust (we don't track gusts here on the hourly). Overall I think my first pass is failing to capture the higher end events. So now I'm working on using the GYX upper air and PWM T/gust to see if that significantly changes things (lapse rates are often more unstable at PWM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 6z NAM is a beast!!! 965 mb goes over eastern CT.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Moves into southern VT after... up to 973 mb after bombing out the frames before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Pretty much sits on southern VT as is weakens wow this run was nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 One interesting aspect of the ensembles is that just about every single member is a bomb (GEFS and EPS). So it's not like there are a bunch of clunkers dragging the mean down, it's location dragging the mean down. I think it highlights the ingredients are all there for a big system. While some of these runs are clearly dealing with latent heat release issues, the negatively tilting trof and favorable location within the upper jet structure are good positives to have on your side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: One interesting aspect of the ensembles is that just about every single member is a bomb (GEFS and EPS). So it's not like there are a bunch of clunkers dragging the mean down, it's location dragging the mean down. I think it highlights the ingredients are all there for a big system. While some of these runs are clearly dealing with latent heat release issues, the negatively tilting trof and favorable location within the upper jet structure are good positives to have on your side. Anywhere in dacks or Catskills show potential spots for “surprise “ elevation snow 2.5-3k . I.E Favorable areas for dynamic cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Anywhere in dacks or Catskills show potential spots for “surprise “ elevation snow 2.5-3k . I.E Favorable areas for dynamic cooling It's not out of the question. Even in NH I have a few bufkit locations showing flashes of isothermal above 1500 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 57 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 6z NAM is a beast!!! 965 mb goes over eastern CT.. We destroy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Freakin' NAM. LOL. Tossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Freakin' NAM. LOL. Tossed. Just wait 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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