Spanks45 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Dryslot races in tonight though so it’s over around midnight give or take but an 8hour window should get us there. For whatever reason, this storm makes me ready for the first snow.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 I believe the wind threat is going to be quite high between 9z and 15z Thursday morning, which is 5 am to 10 am across the Cape and Islands as the 925mb low level jet winds crank to over 105mph during this time as which a slight tornado risk window is open. Mesolow/mesocyclone threat increases in this window as well. However, unsure what the inversion heights will be and whether or not the marine layer inflow will inhibit the storm formation along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Also lowest pressures found along the East Coast is around 995mb east of Dover, DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wx2fish is in Pittsburgh and it’s already blowing 30-35 there. Although it is sticK season there. The downslope signal has been strong for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I believe the wind threat is going to be quite high between 9z and 15z Thursday morning, which is 5 am to 10 am across the Cape and Islands as the 925mb low level jet winds crank to over 105mph during this time as which a slight tornado risk window is open. Mesolow/mesocyclone threat increases in this window as well. However, unsure what the inversion heights will be and whether or not the marine layer inflow will inhibit the storm formation along the front. That’d be 4am-10am James. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’d be 4am-10am James. 5 AM - 11 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’d be 4am-10am James. You're both wrong. It's 5AM to 11AM. LOL 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’d be 4am-10am James. That would be correct if we were on EST but we are on EDT right now. James was actually closer lol, boy did that backfire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: That would be correct if we were on EST but we are on EDT right now. James was actually closer lol, boy did that backfire. Lol...you’re correct. I always get that confused. 4 hours on DT, 5 hours on ST...got it. So I stand corrected. Thank you for clarifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 I'm kind of surprised how light the wind is right now. Had a stiff breeze earlier but now the wind is really light. Noted Keene NH past hour had calm winds. Guess no strong high pressure to the north is the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 take max gusts up to 45-50 here and NW of town. Tough call, but I'll bite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I'm kind of surprised how light the wind is right now. Had a stiff breeze earlier but now the wind is really light. Noted Keene NH past hour had calm winds. Guess no strong high pressure to the north is the reason. May be more due to evap cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I'm kind of surprised how light the wind is right now. Had a stiff breeze earlier but now the wind is really light. Noted Keene NH past hour had calm winds. Guess no strong high pressure to the north is the reason. I'm still not buying the huge winds (until we kiss the backside later overnight) outside of any convective elements. The rain is going to further stabilize the column (especially llvls) and like forky has mentioned a few times, the llvl lapse rates are garbage...including 2-6 km lapse rates. Outside of perhaps the extreme outer Cape, the LLJ likely isn't going to strengthen that much more than it is now...which is there is little momentum transfer doesn't matter much if it did anyways. The real winds will come from the pressure gradient which we get to experience as this undergoes bombogenesis as its lifting through New England (the backside winds!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 hour ago, DotRat_Wx said: As of 4:04 pm TDWR is up Not seeing it, says 852 am on my scope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Thinking 40 max here but we'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Back edge flying toward NYC. Yankees didn't need to postpone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: Back edge flying toward NYC. Yankees didn't need to postpone? I mean the backedge is flying through S NJ and SE PA i def wouldn't call it through NYC...They have several more hours to go easy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Gonna be a lot of surprised folks when it’s absolutely roaring near and after midnight. When Ryan goes big.. it’s big 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Back edge flying toward NYC. Yankees didn't need to postpone? Lol that’s a little bit of An exaggeration there Mozart. Long way to go for them in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 17 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: take max gusts up to 45-50 here and NW of town. Tough call, but I'll bite. I put that down for my call yesterday for Boston on your poll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not seeing it, says 852 am on my scope PSC is up...edit PSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I put that down for my call yesterday for Boston on your poll. Boston/Winthrop will generally be 10-30% higher than here, a relative wind hole in coastals. 50-55 for BOS but it'll probably bust, probably high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 HRRR has a meso forming SW of ACK with high winds to the East that all rotates thru Cape Cod slams Scooter all the way up the Maine coast. Possible seiche in the Gulf Of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: HRRR has a meso forming SW of ACK with high winds to the East that all rotates thru Cape Cod slams Scooter all the way up the Maine coast. Possible seiche in the Gulf Of Maine. It has been very consistent with this has some other models. This is the best chance for really good winds and across these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: It has been very consistent with this has some other models. This is the best chance for really good winds and across these areas. Just offshore Plymouth Mass, sustained 50. Impressive sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 46 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The downslope signal has been strong for a few days now. PF pointed that out a couple of days ago and touted DDH and RUT as places that do particularly well with downslope winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It has been very consistent with this has some other models. This is the best chance for really good winds and across these areas. Ryan knows. You’ll regret debbies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Just offshore Plymouth Mass, sustained 50. Impressive sounding. Wow that's pretty impressive. They're going to rip like crazy for a brief time should this verify...thankfully it should be brief otherwise power issues would be pretty significant. Heck...even brief duration of these winds would do a number Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan knows. You’ll regret debbies We'll gust 35-45 mph easily with the backside winds but I don't think we see those associated with the rain or convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Gusts close to 60 down in NJ already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: Gusts close to 60 down in NJ already. That’s very impressive. And it’s supposed to strengthen rapidly as it heads up this way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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