WinterWolf Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: More annoying is not possible. It was like that from the get go after sn change. Like he just magically changed his online identity and with that, came an abundant amount of nonsense and trash trolling. Surprised he’s allowed to hang around as long as he has. Ignore button is your best friend. I still think this isn’t a big deal west of river in CT but we’ll see if a cell can drop the winds down to the surface and cause some weenies to bust on themselves before bedtime. Totally Agree. He needs a time out from Mods for sure. Who was he before screen name change? I think we’re gonna get a Good slug of Rain..heavy at that. Winds are always a disappointment most times inland here..but we’ll see if we can CAA some wind in our hoods?? It should be interesting to see how this all comes together later today and overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 HRRR winds will ebb and flow with each run showing a slightly different depiction. I'm still a little less bullish for here..thinking 40-50 stuff. I think potential is higher, but I don't see concrete evidence that states it will happen for BOS area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 I'm not so sure I agree with their notion of "window of opportunity for surface-based convection". There is a bit of a spike in some sfc-based instability on the CAMS, however, this really happens behind the area of precipitation and is tied into the steepening of the mlvl lapse rates as the main energy moves overhead...along with the dry punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Sting jet possibility? it's a good question. I'm not personally aware of any specific tech that's developed the specifically progs that kind of phenomenon, but there are recognizable attributes/synoptics that portend. Typically, neggie tilt with extreme VV peeling NW around a deep mid level height fall ...which, heh, seems similar to this don't it - But, they don't all do it.. And, the isollabaric wind acceleration in this may be potent and could mimic that/and/or make it difficult to separate the two. Edmond Fitzgerald 1975 bomb over Lake superior and more recently, the 2005 Dec even that strafed the south coast ...are both very good examples of stratospheric entrainment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 I'm not expecting much here, In between both areas of maxima on precip, And with the SLP cutting west and occluding over SNH maybe some wind in the 30 mph range and rainfall just over 1", Some will see a decent event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 No one's trolling, 40-45mph gusts looks to be the most reasonable forecast for NW of Boston. BOX agrees with that, at least as of earlier this AM. There is obviously potential for higher winds, so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm not expecting much here, In between both areas of maxima on precip, And with the SLP cutting west and occluding over SNH maybe some wind in the 30 mph range and rainfall just over 1", Some will see a decent event though. I'm prob gonna head to Cape Elizabeth at sunrise and hopefully see a 50 mph gust. Mostly hoping for rippin' seas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 minute ago, MaineJayhawk said: I'm prob gonna head to Cape Elizabeth at sunrise and hopefully see a 50 mph gust. Mostly hoping for rippin' seas It should be good down there between 9-12z tomorrow right along the coast on those ESE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: I'm prob gonna head to Cape Elizabeth at sunrise and hopefully see a 50 mph gust. Mostly hoping for rippin' seas 6SD -U winds...should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: 6SD -U winds...should be fun. That page is working again? sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm not so sure I agree with their notion of "window of opportunity for surface-based convection". There is a bit of a spike in some sfc-based instability on the CAMS, however, this really happens behind the area of precipitation and is tied into the steepening of the mlvl lapse rates as the main energy moves overhead...along with the dry punch. I dunno those backside winds are often just standard take the leaves down variety for wct. I don’t recall a damaging wind event from a dry w/nw flow. Do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I dunno those backside winds are often just standard take the leaves down variety for wct. I don’t recall a damaging wind event from a dry w/nw flow. Do you? I can't either. I don't think backside winds will be overly crazy...but it will be region wide. I'm thinking 35-45 mph gusts on the backside...maybe 50 in the exposed areas. There was this one event we had...think it was March...no clue on the year but it was between 2010-2012 and we had a crazy overperforming wind event on a NW flow...that was a completely different set-up than this was...we ended up with like full sun that day and mixed way deeper than forecast. There was a decent amount of damage reports/power outages...and trees were still naked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 ESE winds are far more impressive then NNW winds at 40-50 mph, You get more damage in that direction i have found especially if you can get them inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I dunno those backside winds are often just standard take the leaves down variety for wct. I don’t recall a damaging wind event from a dry w/nw flow. Do you? There was one nuts event in the Mid nineties(95 maybe, and it was late winter early spring), no leaves on the trees, and it was insane here. Some of the strongest winds I’ve ever witnessed, and it was a sunny Morning/midday. Winds were sustained very high, and gusts were upper sixties low seventies. Somebody was killed in Farmington I believe when a tree blew down on their vehicle. That event stands out in my mind for sure. Very impressive event. maybe somebody will remember the exact year?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 the winds right now is ESE at 23.....i'm getting worried about my roof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 38 minutes ago, dryslot said: It should be good down there between 9-12z tomorrow right along the coast on those ESE winds. I'm not right along the coast (3 mi inland), but fully expecting some + 50mph gusts in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Not many E-ESE wind events in October I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Just now, tunafish said: I'm not right along the coast (3 mi inland), but fully expecting some + 50mph gusts in the morning. Yeah, Your close enough you should see some decent gust from this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Looks like it is in the process of taking on a negative tilt now and jet streak starting to round the base of the trough. These next 2-3 hours will tell us all we've been wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Looks like it is in the process of taking on a negative tilt now and jet streak starting to round the base of the trough. These next 2-3 hours will tell us all we've been wondering. I’ll tell ya that radar is looking impressive to me heading up from the south...definitely coming together, gonna rain hard here in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR winds will ebb and flow with each run showing a slightly different depiction. I'm still a little less bullish for here..thinking 40-50 stuff. I think potential is higher, but I don't see concrete evidence that states it will happen for BOS area. It doesn't make sense unless something tracks right across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 This should still be a significant event for, say east of 495. Obviously the coastal areas have been discussed. But this has the potential of causing some damage due to wind direction, trees still have leaves. It should be interesting to see how it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Not many E-ESE wind events in October I guess. Anemometer obstructed by Mt Tolland 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: I’ll tell ya that radar is looking impressive to me heading up from the south...definitely coming together, gonna rain hard here in a few hours. Yeah timed for rush hour too. I was hoping I'd be able to beat it home...going to be close at the speed it's going. I still feel like this is all timed a few hours quicker...which typically isn't a big deal but what I think that could mean is a later bombing out. I think the only thing in question right now is whether the Cape gets the goods with those winds and whether some of those get inland (not talking about backside winds). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Winds starting to really crank up here on my hill. 12Z Euro lowest pressure 973mb Northfield NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Winds starting to really crank up here on my hill. 12Z Euro lowest pressure 973mb Northfield NH Maybe dendy can set the state record. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Maybe dendy can set the state record. Easy there Dendy...don’t count your chickens before they h... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 hmmm...the convection would actually develop on the backside of the precipitation shield...at least that's what the HRRR suggests. I recall a couple of events in the past where something similar happened. One was a winter event...maybe like 2009 and it was a crazy light show. I remember a while back...a long time ago Scott made some in-depth posts discussing all the processes involved behind that...big contributor was edge of dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Easy there Dendy...don’t count your chickens before they h... lol. It's don't count your chickens before they sh** 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 thiking about the ESE.. that might be a good direction for damage up my way.. will have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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