STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 My apologies I was not looking at the HI-Res euro what the heck did the hi-res euro show for lowest pressure from yesterday’s 12z run...same ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: More likely than not, the only flattening will be of a recycle bucket or two...this will most likely underwhelm just like last weeks dud did. I’d temper expectations for the moment. I bet Thursday has stronger wind gusts with the CAA. Wednesday/Wednesday night doesn't seem like a crazy wind producer...maybe 25-35 mph wind gusts...likely enhanced by the equator-ward traveling geese farting as they embark on their next leg to the south. The LLJ doesn't look like anything special and I'm not sure how well mixing will truly be...we don't really get into the "warm sector"...we do get scrapped by theta-e values 310-320K...higher values remain off to the south. The strongest winds Wednesday probably happen outside of precipitation too...don't think we're going to see any convective elements to enhance drawing winds down to the surface so with any precip I think it stabilizes the column very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Ya you’re right...the cold air advection is where we get some decent winds most times around here it seems. Run of the mill rain event most likely. Its always fun to see the beast/or extreme depictions, but we gotta realize those are truly rare, and don’t happen 99% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya you’re right...the cold air advection is where we get some decent winds most times around here it seems. Run of the mill rain event most likely. Its always fun to see the beast/or extreme depictions, but we gotta realize those are truly rare, and don’t happen 99% of the time. If we indeed see a low-topped line develop in PA/NY (which I think we will) and that can move through that is probably our best bet for some strong winds. I don't think, however, such a line will make it into our area prior to falling apart. There is some instability present but this will be dynamically driven and once the occlusion happens the dynamics sort of meh out pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 54 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: My apologies I was not looking at the HI-Res euro what the heck did the hi-res euro show for lowest pressure from yesterday’s 12z run...same ? No, 984mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 NAM going to be a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 966mb just east of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 NAM is clearly a warm core system up to Coastal SNE. I’d toss this far if not for the euro showing a similar solution several runs in a row now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 I’m in the western eyewall. Cute. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Good soaking for some, To bad there wasn't a strong HP to the north of that system, Then you would have some winds between the two gradients, Bulk of the stronger winds look to remain offshore on the eastern side of the SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 I haven't had a decent rain event since my 1.15" on Sept 2nd. I'll take the rain. We are at 100% peak foliage so even 35mph gusts are going to take down most all the leaves. Maples are vibrant and even oaks are changing. This usually doesn't happen because multiple wind events take down leaves as they change. This year this has not happened. Great foliage year, stick season starts Friday in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 The UL setup really isn’t that terribly anomalous for us—good for a significant Nor’easter no doubt—but 960’s??? The only way the nuke materializes is with a robust tropical connection. Either the euro and nam are wayyyy OTL on what happens near Savannah GA, or we’re going to see a small cane running up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 Yall remember Oct17 with that meso cyclone doing all the damage. If , big if , the Euro materialized then SE SNE will have issues. Gravity waves were a major issue. No way to know what will happen until we get within 18 hrs but I would pay attention. One thing that is sure to happen. Ray will call it forgettable. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 24 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The UL setup really isn’t that terribly anomalous for us—good for a significant Nor’easter no doubt—but 960’s??? The only way the nuke materializes is with a robust tropical connection. Either the euro and nam are wayyyy OTL on what happens near Savannah GA, or we’re going to see a small cane running up the coast. Yeah ...a lot of the issues with this - in the modeling I feel - is that the thickness gradients in the low levels are effectively meaningless - they are missing .. Those surface to 700 mb frontal inclinations are critical in the vertical structure of cyclogenesis' in general. Similar to why in April sometimes, a bomb on the mid range charts as suggested at 500 mb level, has a comparatively amorphous looking surface reflection - only here...we are seeing this in a surface/sourcing that is warmer. This system, as is, appears to have a ton of mid level kinematic power ... the Q-G forcing is huge... but, in the absence of crucial surface to 6km ( ~ ) frontal tapestries, the models are producing micro lows embedded inside a general region of lowering surface pressure - building without a foundation in a sloppy metaphoric sense so they don't know where to foot/focal point a low. And, because the thickness is more homogenized, these nodes like 'mimic' warm core thermodynamics. I don't believe 'warm core' is really what is going on - what is going on is ... this scenario is systemically lacking the lower tropospheric frontal components, such that most quadrants around the cyclostrophic region are the same temperature/dp layout which is something we see more typically in purer tropical/barotropic systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: More likely than not, the only flattening will be of a recycle bucket or two...this will most likely underwhelm just like last weeks dud did. I’d temper expectations for the moment. You know the difference between the 2? What underperformed last week? If you got hyped on some bad runs 3 days before the storm, your bad. It was an ocean storm from the get go, not inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Hopefully this produces more than ~1” of rain over three days like the meheaster last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yall remember Oct17 with that meso cyclone doing all the damage. If , big if , the Euro materialized then SE SNE will have issues. Gravity waves were a major issue. No way to know what will happen until we get within 18 hrs but I would pay attention. One thing that is sure to happen. Ray will call it forgettable. Lol I was thinking about that storm yesterday. That was the last time I lost power from wind. It wrecked the Stowe area and had 100mph gusts out on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 3 hours ago, dryslot said: ??? I was wondering what pickles was talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You know the difference between the 2? What underperformed last week? If you got hyped on some bad runs 3 days before the storm, your bad. It was an ocean storm from the get go, not inland. I know the difference. But to be fair Ginx, it underwhelmed SE areas too. And that’s where it was supposed to be more of something. And no, I wasn’t expecting much inland at all, so I wasn’t duped one bit. It did what I expected inland..which wasn’t much. And to be fair, it was Kev who was the one calling for a big event last week...not me. Sure the the waves were huge, and the swells in the ocean were impressive, but it was a flop for SE areas too with regard to precip and any sort of strong wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: More likely than not, the only flattening will be of a recycle bucket or two...this will most likely underwhelm just like last weeks dud did. I’d temper expectations for the moment. I don't think the rain will whiff this time.. wind will underperform, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Ahhh NAM you're so cute Goes completely bonkers with a piece of s/w energy rotating around the main s/w. Social media must be hving a field day right now with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think the rain will whiff this time.. wind will underperform, sure. Someones getting wet with that SLP track, But the winds won't be a BD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You know the difference between the 2? What underperformed last week? If you got hyped on some bad runs 3 days before the storm, your bad. It was an ocean storm from the get go, not inland. It definitely underperformed relative to consensus forecasts. I, along with many others here, never expected much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 no wind...yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think the rain will whiff this time.. wind will underperform, sure. Good point. Takes a lot to get good wind in interior SNE, so agreed for sure. We take the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think the rain will whiff this time.. wind will underperform, sure. Probably not, but if the hook to the N/NNW is a little late the weenie rains could end up more east and it ends up a run of the miller for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ...a lot of the issues with this - in the modeling I feel - is that the thickness gradients in the low levels are effectively meaningless - they are missing .. Those surface to 700 mb frontal inclinations are critical in the vertical structure of cyclogenesis' in general. Similar to why in April sometimes, a bomb on the mid range charts as suggested at 500 mb level, has a comparatively amorphous looking surface reflection - only here...we are seeing this in a surface/sourcing that is warmer. This system, as is, appears to have a ton of mid level kinematic power ... the Q-G forcing is huge... but, in the absence of crucial surface to 6km ( ~ ) frontal tapestries, the models are producing micro lows embedded inside a general region of lowering surface pressure - building without a foundation in a sloppy metaphoric sense so they don't know where to foot/focal point a low. And, because the thickness is more homogenized, these nodes like 'mimic' warm core thermodynamics. I don't believe 'warm core' is really what is going on - what is going on is ... this scenario is systemically lacking the lower tropospheric frontal components, such that most quadrants around the cyclostrophic region are the same temperature/dp layout which is something we see more typically in purer tropical/barotropic systems. I do think this evolution would make a whole lot more sense, physically, if there was a tropical disturbance off the southeast coast prior to the approach of the UL trough across the Midwest. There is a weak surface trough that stalls just off the SE coast tomorrow. Some guidance shows shower activity and clouds collocated in that region. I’ll be focusing on that area tomorrow to see if there’s any sign of tropical development... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It definitely underperformed relative to consensus forecasts. I, along with many others here, never expected much. Not seeing anything special on NAEFS, yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 How much for the Picnic Tables? NAM is tossed for it's -3C 850mb air and snow levels getting down to 1,000ft... GGEM had a foot of snow for the higher peaks in the Adirondacks and snows up near First Conn Lake. EURO more tame but did switch the picnic table elevations over to snow at the end for a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 GFS continues the east theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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