cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, snowlover2 said: Funny you say that. Here is the 0z GFS for next weekend. Excellent, that would be just what we all need lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Excellent, that would be just what we all need lol. Watch it switch out to a 50 mile wide weenie band a day out. Models really do suck us in as bad as tantalizing sports teams. Euro showed 5-8 straight runs of over a foot for Milwaukee, and now in Round One I have the mix line hanging miles to my NW and projected to do so for the next five hours. The main event will blast ChiTown with heavy snow while we see sloppy seconds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I think we all can agree that this was one of the most underwhelming storms of all time The rain underperformed The ice underperformed (not complaining about this part) The winds underperformed Hell even the severe threat down south under performed to an extent 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 10 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I think we all can agree that this was one of the most underwhelming storms of all time The rain underperformed The ice underperformed (not complaining about this part) The winds underperformed Hell even the severe threat down south under performed to an extent That's the one thing that did perform pretty close to my expectations. Over 900 wind reports over the two days plus at least three brief but strong (EF2+) tornadoes with embedded supercells. The whole discrete supercells ahead of the line thing always seemed like more of an outside chance than a bona fide threat with this event, to me at least. Lots of soundings with shear vectors parallel to the front, even if there wasn't gnarly VBV in the vertical profile, and the speed shear made for extreme amounts of SRH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Interesting weather feature: along with this storm, yesterday there was a 232 kt wind at 250mb in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Extended about as bad as it gets, just brutally boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Extended about as bad as it gets, just brutally boring yep..after next weekend ...nothing...18z GFS continues to show a system over the northern Gulf and then rides up the east coast... but not really huge amounts of cold air dumping in behind it...no clippers..a north wind for days over the Gulf eats out all of the moisture..will take days of a south wind to recover....IF another SW flow sets up later in the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Not shocking after the extended cold seen in November and December that it’s mild from late Dec-mid Jan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 15 hours ago, nwohweather said: Not shocking after the extended cold seen in November and December that it’s mild from late Dec-mid Jan It was chilly during the first half of November...but ever since then, it has been unacceptably mild and boring...going on for 8 weeks now. How is this not shocking? As I always say, people have incredibly low expectations for winter in this sub-forum. Not singling you out, of course...but it's maddening. Where is the cold air...especially the cold nights????? They have vanished. Since November 16th, 85% of the days at ORD had a low temp of 20F or higher...with the coldest temp of only 10F. And the 85% will continue to increase during the rest of January, if the medium-range guidance is to be believed. What is happening??? Heck, I would be upset if 50% of the days during this period had a low temp of 20F or higher...but 85%+ is a whole new level of *******. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: It was chilly during the first half of November...but ever since then, it has been unacceptably mild and boring...going on for 8 weeks now. How is this not shocking? As I always say, people have incredibly low expectations for winter in this sub-forum. Not singling you out, of course...but it's maddening. Where is the cold air...especially the cold nights????? They have vanished. Since November 16th, 85% of the days at ORD had a low temp of 20F or higher...with the coldest temp of only 10F. And the 85% will continue to increase during the rest of January, if the medium-range guidance is to be believed. What is happening??? Heck, I would be upset if 50% of the days during this period had a low temp of 20F or higher...but 85%+ is a whole new level of *******. AGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Everyone acts like normal weather is comprised of average highs and average lows. It's a combination of extreme highs and extreme lows averaged out. November was WAY below normal, December was WAY above Normal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 58 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: It was chilly during the first half of November...but ever since then, it has been unacceptably mild and boring...going on for 8 weeks now. How is this not shocking? As I always say, people have incredibly low expectations for winter in this sub-forum. Not singling you out, of course...but it's maddening. Where is the cold air...especially the cold nights????? They have vanished. Since November 16th, 85% of the days at ORD had a low temp of 20F or higher...with the coldest temp of only 10F. And the 85% will continue to increase during the rest of January, if the medium-range guidance is to be believed. What is happening??? Heck, I would be upset if 50% of the days during this period had a low temp of 20F or higher...but 85%+ is a whole new level of *******. What is unacceptable about it? Reminds me of the line Joe Bastardi of Accuweather used to say, "Enjoy the weather because it's the only one you get." Regardless it is an ENSO neutral winter with temps running a little bit above average, not a solid La Nina delivering clippers like a automotive assembly plant. Wouldn't be shocked if February absolutely roars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: It was chilly during the first half of November...but ever since then, it has been unacceptably mild and boring...going on for 8 weeks now. How is this not shocking? As I always say, people have incredibly low expectations for winter in this sub-forum. Not singling you out, of course...but it's maddening. Where is the cold air...especially the cold nights????? They have vanished. Since November 16th, 85% of the days at ORD had a low temp of 20F or higher...with the coldest temp of only 10F. And the 85% will continue to increase during the rest of January, if the medium-range guidance is to be believed. What is happening??? Heck, I would be upset if 50% of the days during this period had a low temp of 20F or higher...but 85%+ is a whole new level of *******. As I always say, some people just have incredibly high expectations for winter in this sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 To be fair the last month has averaged +10 departures around here in the "heart" of winter. That is almost as rare as Feb 2015. The positive departure anomalies have greatly increased in frequency. It's called global warming. It was 67 degrees the other day here with sunshine, once I get that first taste of spring it's tough to go back to the cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, nwohweather said: What is unacceptable about it? Reminds me of the line Joe Bastardi of Accuweather used to say, "Enjoy the weather because it's the only one you get." Regardless it is an ENSO neutral winter with temps running a little bit above average, not a solid La Nina delivering clippers like a automotive assembly plant. Wouldn't be shocked if February absolutely roars I just don't understand how this winter could be thought of as anything close to what winter should be. I know these characterizations tend to be IMBY-focused...but IMBY in NE IL, we've had 3 separate snowfalls of 0.3" to 1.5" since November 15th...amounting to about 4" total (!!!)...and each one stayed on the ground for 1-2 days. And, several days in the 40s and 50s. That's winter?? Of course there is still time for things to change...but it has been brutal so far. One of the worst 11/15 - 1/15 periods in the past 20 years. Not sure how else to sugar coat it... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 hours ago, Jonger said: Everyone acts like normal weather is comprised of average highs and average lows. It's a combination of extreme highs and extreme lows averaged out. November was WAY below normal, December was WAY above Normal. I get your point...but it's probably more accurate to say 10/30 - 11/13 (2 weeks) was good, then 11/14 - 1/14 (9 weeks) was horrendous. Not exactly an equal balance...and of course the 2-week good period is a distant memory since snowpack retention is poor during the first two weeks of November. I know you know that...but timing matters too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: To be fair the last month has averaged +10 departures around here in the "heart" of winter. That is almost as rare as Feb 2015. The positive departure anomalies have greatly increased in frequency. It's called global warming. It was 67 degrees the other day here with sunshine, once I get that first taste of spring it's tough to go back to the cold. Mar 2012 and Feb 2015 were both rare months. We've had warm winters in the past, especially the 1930s and some 1800s. However, as you mentioned, the warm-ups have become too frequent and long-lasting. If we break it down a bit, it becomes quite clear. 05-06: quite warm after Dec, 06-07: a no show until mid Jan, 07-08: overall was warm, 11-12: warm, 12-13: warm until late Jan, 15-16: warm, 16-17: warm after Dec, 18-19: warm until mid Jan, 19-20: warm since Dec..? Hard to say if it's related to CC, but the trend is undeniable. We've shattered snowfall and cold records in between, but warmth still prevails. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: To be fair the last month has averaged +10 departures around here in the "heart" of winter. That is almost as rare as Feb 2015. It looks like it's averaged a bit warmer in Buffalo than here, but still it's been very mild since the 3rd week of December. Neither December or January will show up in the all time warm lists because of the cooler start to December in what looks like a cold end to January. But I'm sure if you take an intra month 30 day period, it's up there. But i always believe the heart of Winter is mid January to mid February, I never consider mid December to mid January the "heart" of Winter. As for rarity, February 2015 is in a very elite minority group (much like march 2012), I have to say this mild stretch does not come close to it, at least here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 John Dee knows your pain, Beavis. As an Ultimate snow weenie he worked his tail off down here and then hightailed it out of our shitty winter climate decades ago. I feel your passion my man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Having said that.. as much as I adore a true winter weenie's dream climate there is not too many folks I know that went to the extremes as him and moved to the LES Belt outside of Bo, and Will from this forum. Huge props and respect to them. I say I could move up there and live that dream, and I could have and still could easily. I remain in MKE. Hope I don't regret that later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, UMB WX said: John Dee knows your pain, Beavis. As an Ultimate snow weenie he worked his tail off down here and then hightailed it out of our shitty winter climate decades ago. I feel your passion my man. Thank you Yes...good for John! It will happen soon. After many years of putting up with me, my wife is on board too. It’s not even about subzero temps and crazy winds and 3 feet of snow on the ground. Just want to wake up in the morning, relax with a cup of coffee, and know that every morning during the heart of winter you can look outside at the wintry landscape, then take part in it. You should be able to count in winter during DJF...or at least Dec 15th to Feb 15th...year after year. Just like we count on summer in JJA. All of my complaints on this board come from this passion...it’s not personal. No hard feelings to anyone. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Right on, Beavis. I getcha and happy to hear your plans are still on to move north and find what you crave. Funny - just before you replied I let the dogs out and smiled big watching them run off in to the 2" (lol) snowpack and do their thing. Grabbed my afternoon coffee and admired the bird feeders flocked with birds and the white landscape. Snow is definitely my best therapy and this small dose was much needed ATM. I REALLY hope the late week event works out white for as many in this sub-forum as possible. Sometimes bigger isn't always better. The landscape left behind by even 2" felt like sleeping with a big one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 33 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Having said that.. as much as I adore a true winter weenie's dream climate there is not too many folks I know that went to the extremes as him and moved to the LES Belt outside of Bo, and Will from this forum. I say I could move up there and live that dream, and I could have easily. I remain in MKE. Hope I don't regret that later. I don't recommend anyone moving here just for the snow. There's a real sense of isolation that has to become normal. I've heard lots of stories of people moving here to retire or whatever and only make it a winter or two. Loving snow is one thing, loving up to seven months of it some years, is another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, weatherbo said: I don't recommend anyone moving here just for the snow. There's a real sense of isolation that has to become normal. I've heard lots of stories of people moving here to retire or whatever and only make it a winter or two. Loving snow is one thing, loving up to seven months of it some years, is another. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, weatherbo said: I don't recommend anyone moving here just for the snow. There's a real sense of isolation that has to become normal. I've heard lots of stories of people moving here to retire or whatever and only make it a winter or two. Loving snow is one thing, loving up to seven months of it some years, is another. Not many truer words spoken. And ultimately why I remain in MKE. I wonder every winter why I'm still down in the cities - and what you said above is what my non-weenie brain resonates with. This winter I have a cousin that moved east on HWY 2 by roughy 7 miles only and the struggle to keep up with a 7 mile move to Saxon, Wi. has been so surreal to follow through him. The brutally long winter struggles are real up there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 They probably have close to a 30" snow pack in parts of the snow belt in, WI. Hardly any of it has come from LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 if you want to move for snow, i'd suggest colorado, california, washington, oregon...you know, somewhere that doesn't suck 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: if you want to move for snow, i'd suggest colorado, california, washington, oregon...you know, somewhere that doesn't suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just move to Quebec City. They avg. 120" a year of pure synoptic snow. Just brush up on that French though lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 7 hours ago, beavis1729 said: It was chilly during the first half of November...but ever since then, it has been unacceptably mild and boring...going on for 8 weeks now. How is this not shocking? As I always say, people have incredibly low expectations for winter in this sub-forum. Not singling you out, of course...but it's maddening. Where is the cold air...especially the cold nights????? They have vanished. Since November 16th, 85% of the days at ORD had a low temp of 20F or higher...with the coldest temp of only 10F. And the 85% will continue to increase during the rest of January, if the medium-range guidance is to be believed. What is happening??? Heck, I would be upset if 50% of the days during this period had a low temp of 20F or higher...but 85%+ is a whole new level of *******. It's called we were in a +AO/+NAO/+EPO pattern. So no, it is/was not shocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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