Autumn/Winter 2019-2020 Banter/Complaint Thread

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I wouldn't mind saving a little daylight for ohhh....let's see...early-mid December when it gets dark at 5:00 EST in Eastern Indiana?!  But that's an argument for another thread.

That's what holiday lights are for..

[madwx]

4 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I wouldn't mind saving a little daylight for ohhh....let's see...early-mid December when it gets dark at 5:00 EST in Eastern Indiana?!  But that's an argument for another thread.

4:22 for the earliest sunset here which can be brutal

[Stebo]

5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I wouldn't mind saving a little daylight for ohhh....let's see...early-mid December when it gets dark at 5:00 EST in Eastern Indiana?!  But that's an argument for another thread.

I would rather we stay in DST.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Just gonna vent real quick. 

Getting missed to the south 3 times in October really sucks for a weenie like me. Waiting for climo to even things out but I’m sure that will happen while I’m in New Zealand for my honeymoon Dec 22 - Jan 8 you can lock it in.

at least it’s been fun to track something

[kevlon62]

Dial something wintry up for the Penn State showdown.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Just gonna vent real quick. 

Getting missed to the south 3 times in October really sucks for a weenie like me. Waiting for climo to even things out but I’m sure that will happen while I’m in New Zealand for my honeymoon Dec 22 - Jan 8 you can lock it in.

at least it’s been fun to track something

Risking a total thread derailment, but where in New Zealand? I was out there two years ago in January and it was awesome.
 

I have traveled internationally a lot, but it was one of the few places where I gave serious consideration to moving to. We priced out property but ultimately decided against it, mostly due to the costs involved in the grandparents coming out to see the babies. 

[osubrett2]

2 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

while I’m in New Zealand for my honeymoon Dec 22 - Jan 8 you can lock it in.

 

58 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Risking a total thread derailment, but where in New Zealand? I was out there two years ago in January and it was awesome.
 

I have traveled internationally a lot, but it was one of the few places where I gave serious consideration to moving to. We priced out property but ultimately decided against it, mostly due to the costs involved in the grandparents coming out to see the babies. 

Totally OT here, but I leave for my honeymoon trip to New Zealand on Sunday. Spending 6 days on the South Island, driving from Queenstown to Wanaka to Lake Tekapo to Christchurch. Taking a flight to Rotorua. Spending 4 days on the North Island, driving from Rotorua to Tauranga to Auckland. And then finishing up with 4 days in Fiji.   
 

I would love to hear both of your travel plans!

[SchaumburgStormer]

Just now, osubrett2 said:

 

Totally OT here, but I leave for my honeymoon trip to New Zealand on Sunday. Spending 6 days on the South Island, driving from Queenstown to Wanaka to Lake Tekapo to Christchurch. Taking a flight to Rotorua. Spending 4 days on the North Island, driving from Rotorua to Tauranga to Auckland. And then finishing up with 4 days in Fiji.   
 

I would love to hear both of your travel plans!

Stop by Dunedin and see Baldwin Street. There is also a penguin reserve there where you basically walk through trenches into little "pillboxes" and are able to see them in their natural habitat. Its amazing. Lots of awesome scenic areas which are easy to get to.

On the off chance you end up in Wellington, stop by the "Museum of New Zealand (Te Papa Tongarewa)". Some of the exhibits are incredible, incluyding the WW1 exhibit on Gallipoli, which was one of the most incredible and moving war exhibits I have ever seen. 

And if you're a drinked and enjoy Jim Beam and Coke, or Canadian Club and Seven Up, they have them in cans pre-mixed to 4.5%. I would HIGHLY recommend the pear cider. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

11 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Risking a total thread derailment, but where in New Zealand? I was out there two years ago in January and it was awesome.
 

I have traveled internationally a lot, but it was one of the few places where I gave serious consideration to moving to. We priced out property but ultimately decided against it, mostly due to the costs involved in the grandparents coming out to see the babies. 

 

10 hours ago, osubrett2 said:

 

Totally OT here, but I leave for my honeymoon trip to New Zealand on Sunday. Spending 6 days on the South Island, driving from Queenstown to Wanaka to Lake Tekapo to Christchurch. Taking a flight to Rotorua. Spending 4 days on the North Island, driving from Rotorua to Tauranga to Auckland. And then finishing up with 4 days in Fiji.   
 

I would love to hear both of your travel plans!

We are flying into Auckland, spending a couple days in that area (coromandel peninsula, city center ect...), then heading to Rotorua and Taupo. We are both avid outdoors-people, and will be hiking the northern circuit of Tongariro National Park and tent camping on an active volcano. Driving south from there we plan on checking out some of the wineries around Hasting/Napier, then spending a day in Wellington before hopping on the ferry to the south island. Plan on doing a trip to Tasman National Park for the beaches, and maybe stop over in Marlbourgh. Christchurch is probably where we will spend New Years as we currently have a hotel reserved, and from there drive over the Arthurs Pass region and doing short hikes along the way to Greysmouth. Currently looking at booking a helicopter tour of Franz Joseph or Fox glaciers, there are mountain huts only accessible by helicopter right on the edge of the glaciers that we are looking at spending a night at as well. From there we plan to drive and hike around the Haast pass region, and Fiordland National Park for some more camping, then end our trip with couple days in and around Queenstown, before flying back to the states.

Our south island itinerary is less set in stone, as we are still putting things together, but that is a general idea. Definitely want to try and squeeze in penguins in Dunedin if possible. I've seen wild penguins before but my wife hasn't. What i've learned from planning this trip is New Zealand is an incredible country and our trip is only half as long as it properly needs to be.

[sokolow]

Tis the season (for garbage field conditions)

 

[hlcater]

Pivotal weather has greatly diversified the amount of data available with the ECMWF. This is gonna be *really* nice.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcmslp&rh=2019110312&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

[cyclone77]

The obligatory sure glad the models come out an hour earlier post.  

[sokolow]

IMG_REAL_SAD_EMOJI

KLOT:

Quote

 

Oh and we cannot forget about temperatures that everyone across the CWA will feel, and on Thursday these will "peak" at 20 to 25 degrees below normal. Wind chills on Thursday morning will be in the teens area wide, even lower teens in northern areas. If you think that`s cold don`t look at the extended forecast below...

 

 

 

 

Friday night through Tuesday...

The longer term starts cold and will only get colder. First, Friday with had a start in the teens in outlying areas and incoming clouds looks to keep highs similar to Thursday, though with less wind. The incoming clouds will be from returning warm advection and a wave passing north of the area. This looks moisture scant so have no precipitation mention Friday night. For Saturday highs are forecast back into the lower to mid 40s. A true dislodge of cold air will be occurring this weekend and is forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF to be spreading into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions by the end of the weekend into the first part of next week. Similar to the cold front of the short term, the concerns will be the possibility of some snow with and just after frontal passage and lake effect snow showers and lakeshore flooding. This front will be stronger though, so the winds and lakeside impacts (especially for northwest Indiana), as well as the significance of below normal temperatures look to be noteworthy. Current forecast highs for Monday, Veterans Day, are the coldest on record for that date/holiday for both Chicago and Rockford. Lows that night and Tuesday night also could near record lows, which is impressive considering there does not look to be snow cover.

 

IMG_REAL_SAD_EMOJI

[luckyweather]

Little Switz in mke is turning their lifts this weekend, Tyrol Basin in Madison opened their terrain park last weekend, Lutsen is already open, almost a lock alpine valley will open next weekend, no problem making snow in this environment, granite peak in wausau opens next weekend. The area ski hills have had record late seasons with the lingering cold into spring the past few seasons, now getting open about as early as possible this season - should be another good year for snow sports enthusiasts.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

3 hours ago, luckyweather said:

Little Switz in mke is turning their lifts this weekend, Tyrol Basin in Madison opened their terrain park last weekend, Lutsen is already open, almost a lock alpine valley will open next weekend, no problem making snow in this environment, granite peak in wausau opens next weekend. The area ski hills have had record late seasons with the lingering cold into spring the past few seasons, now getting open about as early as possible this season - should be another good year for snow sports enthusiasts.

Lutsen already open??? I knew they were making snow. Wife and I went to Trollhaugen last weekend, November 2nd is now the earliest i've ever skied. Most of the Twin Cities hills will be operational by next weekend. 

[IWXwx]

Bone chilling, record-breaking cold in early November with bare ground.  It's gonna be a long winter....

[luckyweather]

Not in the sub, but the spigot has shutoff in Colorado, at least for now, and so the snowpack is transforming into a fragile structure, developing facets that will probably produce some big slides after the snow comes back, as they’ll be the trigger layer for sliding. Thought I’d share as it’s interesting stuff, though not really a topic we’ll ever get the chance to discuss here, except maybe this season, at the rate we’re going ;-)

[cyclone77]

So shall we largely ignore the NCEP guidance beyond the 48-72hr mark this season?  The GFS has flopped hard on the first two systems of note.  I know it's definitely gonna be hard to take it seriously until it scores a win or a tie at the least.

[Stebo]

29 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

So shall we largely ignore the NCEP guidance beyond the 48-72hr mark this season?  The GFS has flopped hard on the first two systems of note.  I know it's definitely gonna be hard to take it seriously until it scores a win or a tie at the least.

It was bad and the Euro was money. I can't say ignore but it certainly isn't off to a good start.

[bowtie`]

I can't find my insulated socks.

[Hoosier]

Basically downtown Chicago... sorry mimillman 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
220 PM CST MON NOV 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     SNOW             1 SW NORTHERLY ISLAND   41.85N 87.62W
11/11/2019  E0.6 INCH        COOK               IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

Positive thing is that this cold will take a nice bite out of lake temps so that when the next legit snowstorm comes around, the marine layer might not be so much of an issue. 

[Hoosier]

On 11/11/2019 at 9:03 PM, Hoosier said:

Positive thing is that this cold will take a nice bite out of lake temps so that when the next legit snowstorm comes around, the marine layer might not be so much of an issue. 

Lake temps Nov 11 vs Nov 17.  4-5 degree drop near the shore but only a couple degrees farther out in the middle of the lake.

 

SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
903 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES...

CHICAGO SHORE..........43.

CHICAGO CRIB..........41.

MICHIGAN CITY..........46.

SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY..........46.

 

SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
904 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES...

CHICAGO SHORE..........39.

CHICAGO CRIB..........36.

MICHIGAN CITY..........41.

SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY..........44.

[King James]

Hoosier and another poster mentioned how 4 of the 5 wettest years on record in Chicago have been very recent

I was reading last night, inspired by a social media post, about the lake levels up in Door County.

Also read about the beach erosion and loss of property in New Buffalo

I know lake levels fluctuate. However I also read that every peak water level has been higher than the previous peak.

Does anyone have any thoughts about how weather is directly affecting beach erosion. Will it slow down? Is it possible for the Great Lakes to spill their banks?

Just up early today and interested in this topic.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/lake-michigan/

[IWXwx]

1 hour ago, King James said:

Hoosier and another poster mentioned how 4 of the 5 wettest years on record in Chicago have been very recent

I was reading last night, inspired by a social media post, about the lake levels up in Door County.

Also read about the beach erosion and loss of property in New Buffalo

I know lake levels fluctuate. However I also read that every peak water level has been higher than the previous peak.

Does anyone have any thoughts about how weather is directly affecting beach erosion. Will it slow down? Is it possible for the Great Lakes to spill their banks?

Just up early today and interested in this topic.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/lake-michigan/
 

I haven't read into it, but anecdotally, Lakes Michigan and Huron water levels may just be fluctuating more wildly than in the past. For example, it was less than seven years ago  (around January, 2013) Michigan/Huron hit their lowest level on record.

[cyclone77]

It's kind of funny, we have almost 8" of snow for the season but it really feels like I haven't seen it snow yet in a way.  About 95% of the snow that fell and accumulated fell when it was pitch black out.  Will be looking forward to the first true daytime event.  Even a nice snow shower during the day would be nice.  

[hawkeye_wx]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

It's kind of funny, we have almost 8" of snow for the season but it really feels like I haven't seen it snow yet in a way.  About 95% of the snow that fell and accumulated fell when it was pitch black out.  Will be looking forward to the first true daytime event.  Even a nice snow shower during the day would be nice.  

This.  While we did see some morning and afternoon snow, the heart of each of our three snow events began in the evening and ended by sunrise.  I swear it works out that way far more often than odds say it should.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

It's kind of funny, we have almost 8" of snow for the season but it really feels like I haven't seen it snow yet in a way.  About 95% of the snow that fell and accumulated fell when it was pitch black out.  Will be looking forward to the first true daytime event.  Even a nice snow shower during the day would be nice.  

 

3 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This.  While we did see some morning and afternoon snow, the heart of each of our three snow events began in the evening and ended by sunrise.  I swear it works out that way far more often than odds say it should.

So not surprisingly given my location compared to yours, the snows have been much better timed with daylight.  However temps have been a bit of an issue both times.  The Halloween event was too warm to stick to most paved surfaces and the Veterans Day storm did eventually stick to paved surfaces but not at first and the overall total was small.  

[IWXwx]

FWA is off to a good start with 6.9".  They should be comfortably into double figures by the end of the month, especially since it appears that whoever is measuring is liberal, as I am nearby and only have recorded 4.2", and I clear the board every six hours and when the snow ends, per protocol.

It surprised me that ORD is sitting at only 3.7".  It's unusual for Chicago to be behind us, but things will even out as time goes by.

[IWXwx]

6 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

It's kind of funny, we have almost 8" of snow for the season but it really feels like I haven't seen it snow yet in a way.  About 95% of the snow that fell and accumulated fell when it was pitch black out.  Will be looking forward to the first true daytime event.  Even a nice snow shower during the day would be nice.  

 

5 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This.  While we did see some morning and afternoon snow, the heart of each of our three snow events began in the evening and ended by sunrise.  I swear it works out that way far more often than odds say it should.

When there are only nine and a half hours of daylight, the odds are already against us for daytime snow.

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

FWA is off to a good start with 6.9".  They should be comfortably into double figures by the end of the month, especially since it appears that whoever is measuring is liberal, as I am nearby and only have recorded 4.2", and I clear the board every six hours and when the snow ends, per protocol.

It surprised me that ORD is sitting at only 3.7".  It's unusual for Chicago to be behind us, but things will even out as time goes by.

ORD has 8.4".  I think you are looking at only the November total but ORD also had the late October storm.