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October Coastal - Big Rain Potential


dendrite
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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

This...QPF charts are ripped and read way too much and I think they are misinterpreted. 

I always thought this was never a setup which was going to produce region-wide inches of rain. Any areas of torrential rain was going to be more localized and tied into bands of stronger lift which would move onshore and came with higher RH through those lift zones. 

How I view QPF maps is this...

When looking at the QPF output, I ask myself what kind of setup we're dealing with and does the setup favor the potential for the QPF values being shown (over a widespread area). Depending on the set-up if the QPF maps are showing like a widespread 3-5'' of rain but it doesn't look like a set-up that will produce that, I will figure 3-5'' is like a ceiling which may fall locally. 

I was scrolling through social media last night and saw dozens of posts about various fb groups and twitter saying model bust or storm bust...I heavily disagree...chalk it into user bust lol

I've actually noticed a "dumbing down" of the general skill from the human side of operational weather as the state of the art of the field has become ever more reliant upon automations and/or point-and-click conveniences avail in general. 

Just one in the myriad of ways that we are living in an expose of how technology effects Human society.  It's a fantastic subject for digress and it is taking every molecule in my body not to go off into a patently unreadable diatribe ( haha) as only I seem capable of creating... But, sufficed it is to say, we seem to be passing through an evolutionary turn - it's a great sociological experiment along an evolutionary inevitability we've arrived upon as a species so powerful in our ability to alter the environment with the extremeness that we do.  We'll leave it at that...

In the mean time, ... I distinctly recall reading AFDs both at the local and at the continental/more regional scalesj as recently as the 1990s, that were far in a way more intellectually guiding?  They just sounded smarter. The biggest difference I can detect between now and then is the technology servicing the disparate eras.

Now, part of that could be just our own evolution as individual reader/consumers of the information. We do get more sophisticated until 80 years of age - when the other direction kicks in. Maybe stem-cell research will have an answer for that one day.  But, mm. I don't have a photographic memory, but I have a very good one when it comes to having read and/or seen things in the past. I can compare in mind's eye pieces written from NCEP in their Extended range discussions, that were truly instrospective and insightful back in the day .. they were almost more speculative in fascinating ways. These days, there seems to be a cow-tied tendency to regurgitate what was just seen on a model prog/synoptic chart.  Yeah...we know, "SCHRIPEL."  We just saw that too. It gets so much so that I don't read read them anymore.  I've noticed the same thing with TPC... They don't hash out risk areas anymore, unless some ensemble systemic-based output does first.  

I don't think it is necessarily bad?  Despite the overtones here.. Because, otherwise, why invent the technology. Eventually, we have to use it.  I guess there's plenty of room for interpretation there, in that reliance needs to be gauged - obviously relative to the skill of the tech being employed.  So perhaps 'over-reliance' is the simple conclusion here. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We now have Subtropical Storm Melissa

Well...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/111450.shtml

Quote

000
WTNT34 KNHC 111450
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2019

...NOR'EASTER CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BECOMES A
SUBTROPICAL STORM...
...CHANGE IN STORM STATUS DOES NOT CHANGE EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM WIND
AND COASTAL FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to be fussy but is it a really an analog? 

I mean, ...yeah, this probably does have some cyclonic phase stressing that's more hybrid that purely baroclinic - sure... I buy that. But, that 1991 thing had a full bird cane engulfed in side of it. This does not have that, that which goosed 1991 toward the warm phase diagram area.  

I guess it's a bit of a philosophical thing.  I mean, it "looks" similar -sure.  hugely so ha.  But is it physically the same? 

Levi posted this, looks hybrid warm seclusion 

IMG_20191011_111211.jpg

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