Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I’ll give you that if you showed people unlabeled 500 mb charts it might be tough to really tell the flow pattern apart, but that’s a bullet I’m saving for the real deal. I posted surface maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Was dreading driving through a huge nor Easter to get home. The wind was gusty, but the moon was out the guinea pigs and I are alive and back home in MA. My uhaul driver and I got seperated at the 81 and 78 split in PA. I told him we were going 81 to 84, switch in Scranton. He went on 78 and I went 81. But that was just a minor mishap. I got to my house about 1hr a head of him. Uhaul unloaded and returned. Will unpack tomorrow. The whole Nashville gig was just a disaster from Day 1. You all can't even imagine some of the crap that company pulled...but im breathing Nashville out of my system and breathing New England back in. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Strongest winds seem now. Solid gusts near 40 easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 3 hours ago, #NoPoles said: Was dreading driving through a huge nor Easter to get home. The wind was gusty, but the moon was out the guinea pigs and I are alive and back home in MA. My uhaul driver and I got seperated at the 81 and 78 split in PA. I told him we were going 81 to 84, switch in Scranton. He went on 78 and I went 81. But that was just a minor mishap. I got to my house about 1hr a head of him. Uhaul unloaded and returned. Will unpack tomorrow. The whole Nashville gig was just a disaster from Day 1. You all can't even imagine some of the crap that company pulled...but im breathing Nashville out of my system and breathing New England back in. I’m certainly not one for the south either. Welcome back Diane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 4 hours ago, #NoPoles said: Was dreading driving through a huge nor Easter to get home. The wind was gusty, but the moon was out the guinea pigs and I are alive and back home in MA. My uhaul driver and I got seperated at the 81 and 78 split in PA. I told him we were going 81 to 84, switch in Scranton. He went on 78 and I went 81. But that was just a minor mishap. I got to my house about 1hr a head of him. Uhaul unloaded and returned. Will unpack tomorrow. The whole Nashville gig was just a disaster from Day 1. You all can't even imagine some of the crap that company pulled...but im breathing Nashville out of my system and breathing New England back in. Welcome back Diane! Time for a celebratory gtg! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 It’s totally clear here. Stars out.. not a cloud in the sky. Nice day ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Looks like the storm is heading west toward LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 5 hours ago, #NoPoles said: Was dreading driving through a huge nor Easter to get home. The wind was gusty, but the moon was out the guinea pigs and I are alive and back home in MA. My uhaul driver and I got seperated at the 81 and 78 split in PA. I told him we were going 81 to 84, switch in Scranton. He went on 78 and I went 81. But that was just a minor mishap. I got to my house about 1hr a head of him. Uhaul unloaded and returned. Will unpack tomorrow. The whole Nashville gig was just a disaster from Day 1. You all can't even imagine some of the crap that company pulled...but im breathing Nashville out of my system and breathing New England back in. Welcome back! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Welcome back! Does this mean she is in the circle of trust? I totally forgot about that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 7 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Verbatim maybe, but it’s also a failure of model interpretation. We as an enterprise need to do better to interrogate QPF fields. Scoots mentioned some red flags with dry air in the lift generating layers. But it’s easier to rip and read a QPF map than make your own. This...QPF charts are ripped and read way too much and I think they are misinterpreted. I always thought this was never a setup which was going to produce region-wide inches of rain. Any areas of torrential rain was going to be more localized and tied into bands of stronger lift which would move onshore and came with higher RH through those lift zones. How I view QPF maps is this... When looking at the QPF output, I ask myself what kind of setup we're dealing with and does the setup favor the potential for the QPF values being shown (over a widespread area). Depending on the set-up if the QPF maps are showing like a widespread 3-5'' of rain but it doesn't look like a set-up that will produce that, I will figure 3-5'' is like a ceiling which may fall locally. I was scrolling through social media last night and saw dozens of posts about various fb groups and twitter saying model bust or storm bust...I heavily disagree...chalk it into user bust lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s totally clear here. Stars out.. not a cloud in the sky. Nice day ahead When I walked outside this morning I look up and was shocked to see stars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 5 hours ago, #NoPoles said: Was dreading driving through a huge nor Easter to get home. The wind was gusty, but the moon was out the guinea pigs and I are alive and back home in MA. My uhaul driver and I got seperated at the 81 and 78 split in PA. I told him we were going 81 to 84, switch in Scranton. He went on 78 and I went 81. But that was just a minor mishap. I got to my house about 1hr a head of him. Uhaul unloaded and returned. Will unpack tomorrow. The whole Nashville gig was just a disaster from Day 1. You all can't even imagine some of the crap that company pulled...but im breathing Nashville out of my system and breathing New England back in. Welcome home! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Storm looks pretty sweet on satellite this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Today may be wetter then yesterday around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 This storm brought out some horrific forecasts. I mean a few days ago it looked like it could be a doozy and even I got on board. But by 08/00z models (especially euro) started sagging south and some inherent red flags that I had, came out. To get a good firehose you need to inflow and something to help lift that. We had some inflow(although sort of on the nrn edge), but I couldn't see a good mechanism to get the WAA isentropic lift. Even the GFS 850 theta-e progs had low theta-e air getting entrained in from time to time. It was also fairly uniform..no gradients or mechanism to generate lift with WAA processes. All in all I think it didn't help being on the nrn edge because this did sag south, but even the Cape and ACK have rains way lower than expected. If this were winter, I think precip would have been further NW as thermal gradients will dictate better WAA processes and precip that is more widespread. But seriously though.Just replace us with robots. If all we do is rip and read model progs and use zero intuition...what's the use. The field is becoming a joke. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Nice tropical storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This storm brought out some horrific forecasts. I mean a few days ago it looked like it could be a doozy and even I got on board. But by 08/00z models (especially euro) started sagging south and some inherent red flags that I had, came out. To get a good firehose you need to inflow and something to help lift that. We had some inflow(although sort of on the nrn edge), but I couldn't see a good mechanism to get the WAA isentropic lift. Even the GFS 850 theta-e progs had low theta-e air getting entrained in from time to time. It was also fairly uniform..no gradients or mechanism to generate lift with WAA processes. All in all I think it didn't help being on the nrn edge because this did sag south, but even the Cape and ACK have rains way lower than expected. If this were winter, I think precip would have been further NW as thermal gradients will dictate better WAA processes and precip that is more widespread. But seriously though.Just replace us with robots. If all we do is rip and read model progs and use zero intuition...what's the use. The field is becoming a joke. IMO, social media is a huge blame. These charts of snow maps showing 30'' of snow at 220-hr out get tossed around social media, they're re-tweeted or shared on facebook thousands and thousands of times, the public catches wind and all hell breaks lose. In storms like this then you get QPF maps tossed about or whatever. But I agree...so much is just rip and read...and for what reasons IDK. One of my professors from school was a meteorologist for News 12 in NY for like 20+ years and when he retired a few years ago he was talking about how on TV (it would be interesting to hear Ryan's perspective on this too) now everything is about fancy graphics, making things look pretty, and doing a whole bunch of social media...with all this extra stuff you have to do now there isn't a whole heck of a lot of time to really do in-depth forecasting and model analysis. I'm not sure how it is across other sectors but social media is a giant, giant problem. But the rip and reading stuff drives me nuts. Time for a rant myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Nice CJ occurring as Ray would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Totally impressive ocean out there. Waves average is 33 feet near the center. Lots of overwash near shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Pretty looking storm but for me so far it’s “the vigorous drizzle of ‘19” in terms of notoriety 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 If a bear shat in the woods 15 years ago, no one knew about it. Now we know where he shat and what he ate. Some of us want to know these details while others don’t. So it’s your responsibility to pick and choose what you want to read or listen to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This should have already been upgraded. I presume they didn’t want to jump from 20% probs to “it’s a storm” in one advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Already doubled my rain total from yesterday. which is not saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Already doubled my rain total from yesterday. which is not saying much. 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Today may be wetter then yesterday around these parts. Bring 'em up up up. Rain, wind, tides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: This storm brought out some horrific forecasts. I mean a few days ago it looked like it could be a doozy and even I got on board. But by 08/00z models (especially euro) started sagging south and some inherent red flags that I had, came out. To get a good firehose you need to inflow and something to help lift that. We had some inflow(although sort of on the nrn edge), but I couldn't see a good mechanism to get the WAA isentropic lift. Even the GFS 850 theta-e progs had low theta-e air getting entrained in from time to time. It was also fairly uniform..no gradients or mechanism to generate lift with WAA processes. All in all I think it didn't help being on the nrn edge because this did sag south, but even the Cape and ACK have rains way lower than expected. If this were winter, I think precip would have been further NW as thermal gradients will dictate better WAA processes and precip that is more widespread. But seriously though.Just replace us with robots. If all we do is rip and read model progs and use zero intuition...what's the use. The field is becoming a joke. What do you/we think is the next step tho - This isn't going to end well for traditionalist, I'm afraid. As machine intelligentsia gains 'skill' that inexorably leads to a future that doesn't requiring human staffing. I mean I don't mean to lecture - obviously you know this. But I often muse of this issue and you're reminding me of it. It may be hard to project a vision of what that will mean, but it is not beyond the realm of possible to automate all of this shit. Like, everything, and actually do it without the cost of Human error too, which for better or worse, appears to be the goal ( intended or not ). True, the technological ambit is not there yet, but its coming ... If we really wanna get Sci-Fi futuristic there, which I'm sure this isn't being read beyond this point in this shimmering modern era of virtuosity to the written form... just wait until the "weather modification net" comes on-line. Ho -ho man. That'd be a sad sad day. Part of my own fascination with the weather has always been the mystery of what is in store. It's taken me to middle age here, after enough epiphanies over time as to why in the hell I am so obsessed with where the models are going - and seeing that relay into the actual - that's is satisfying curiosity. We all do this, in our own inimitable ways. But at the heart of it all, it's really motivated from the same seeds. It's the intrigue, and the entertainment of it is the satisfaction of that wonder. I suspect much of which is rooted into that evolutionary aspect of Humanity that sets our species apart, and that is that we have exceptionally evolved sense of curiosity. When one wakes up from a cat nap on a warm humid summer afternoon because a clap of thunder cut into their fugue, what's the first thing that passes through their mind: It's a raging curiosity to see where that is coming from - at the heart of this nutty compulsion it's just curiosity. The weather modification net destroys that outlet that taps into the primal sort of drive about discovery and seeing the world around us. They'll use some exotic frontiers of electromagnetic spectra to enforce quantum momentum of all particulate barionic matter that amasses the atmosphere, such that there is no uncertainty - i.e., weather controls. Yep. No more storms anywhere where it can adversely physically impact a society. They'll have them spin thousands of KM's removed over horizons, while regularly watering the land and replenishing general hydro between 2:45 and 4 am, precisely, every night. Course, there'll always be a nitwit that tries to sue for getting wet despite the schedule. By day, always sun, with puffy picturesque cu placed with the deliberation of an artist's brush upon the skyward canvas, instructed in its x-y-z coordinate with precisely calculated mass and ultimately, utter irrelevancy to anything that resembles waking up to a clap of thunder on a warm humid summer afternoon. Every day, day in ...day out. For ever. The ultimate in mordancy conveyed via the splendor of a technologically enabling utopia. Until such time as the 'net fails, and then a more fractal -guided previous dynamic would resume. That would be the storm... people trying to sabotage the system, because in the absence of the weather's chaos, they cannot make sense of it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It does, but of course, it’s useless. Didn’t expect much here but the close ones are always harder to stomach. The NHC has gone from lemon to named system three times this year FWIW. Yea and much of that has to do with communication to the public on a case by case basis. In this situation the classification would do little to change the publics’ perceived impacts/precautions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: This storm brought out some horrific forecasts. I mean a few days ago it looked like it could be a doozy and even I got on board. But by 08/00z models (especially euro) started sagging south and some inherent red flags that I had, came out. To get a good firehose you need to inflow and something to help lift that. We had some inflow(although sort of on the nrn edge), but I couldn't see a good mechanism to get the WAA isentropic lift. Even the GFS 850 theta-e progs had low theta-e air getting entrained in from time to time. It was also fairly uniform..no gradients or mechanism to generate lift with WAA processes. All in all I think it didn't help being on the nrn edge because this did sag south, but even the Cape and ACK have rains way lower than expected. If this were winter, I think precip would have been further NW as thermal gradients will dictate better WAA processes and precip that is more widespread. But seriously though.Just replace us with robots. If all we do is rip and read model progs and use zero intuition...what's the use. The field is becoming a joke. I thought the models performed okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Totally impressive and a great analogy to 91 albeit further East on the East Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If a bear shat in the woods 15 years ago, no one knew about it. Now we know where he shat and what he ate. Some of us want to know these details while others don’t. So it’s your responsibility to pick and choose what you want to read or listen to. 2004? Say wut? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Totally impressive and a great analogy to 91 albeit further East on the East Coast Not to be fussy but is it a really an analog? I mean, ...yeah, this probably does have some cyclonic phase stressing that's more hybrid that purely baroclinic - sure... I buy that. But, that 1991 thing had a full bird cane engulfed in side of it. This does not have that, that which goosed 1991 toward the warm phase diagram area. I guess it's a bit of a philosophical thing. I mean, it "looks" similar -sure. hugely so ha. But is it physically the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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