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October Coastal - Big Rain Potential


dendrite
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16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Faster than modeled upper level flow bump this forecast East? Certainly a nice day and beautiful evening here.  Big qpf bust on most models. 

Dry air from the north. Still had 33 ft waves just offshore. Could have been a contender. People laughing at Oct 91 analogy should look at upper air setup across the country. If this had come northwest 50 miles the coast would have more issues than the flooding ongoing right now

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4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Belichick is really going to hate meteorologists now. He probably got word of 5-10", practiced all week with a soaking wet ball and wind mills, and game time ends up 5mph with a scattered sprinkle.

Wind definitely a factor on the passing game. Go Gints, at least its a game

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dry air from the north. Still had 33 ft waves just offshore. Could have been a contender. People laughing at Oct 91 analogy should look at upper air setup across the country. If this had come northwest 50 miles the coast would have more issues than the flooding ongoing right now

The analogy should be laughed at, regardless of where it tracked.

This is simply not as anomalous.

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2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

What a failure of modeling.

Verbatim maybe, but it’s also a failure of model interpretation. We as an enterprise need to do better to interrogate QPF fields. Scoots mentioned some red flags with dry air in the lift generating layers. But it’s easier to rip and read a QPF map than make your own.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thats not even close to what I am saying. It’s not as anomalous but it is analogous

I get that...we have plenty of Miller Bs analagous to 1978, but unless sensible impact will be comparable, I don't see the value. To the contrary, it creates alot of unnecessary hype from the ill informed masses (not you).

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Verbatim maybe, but it’s also a failure of model interpretation. We as an enterprise need to do better to interrogate QPF fields. Scoots mentioned some red flags with dry air in the lift generating layers. But it’s easier to rip and read a QPF map than make your own.

It wasn’t solely the QPF output.  Brian posted images of the SD that were in the 5SD area.  The winds never materialized.  Models struggle with storms in these transitional periods.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get that...we have plenty of Miller Bs analagous to 1978, but unless sensible impact will be comparable, I don't see the value. To the contrary, it creates alot of unnecessary hype from the ill informed masses (not you).

See my edited post. Those Who thought this involved inland at any real impact were definitely misinformed, very close call for the coast. 50 to 75 miles

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thats not even close to what I am saying. It’s not as anomalous but it is analogous

I’ll give you that if you showed people unlabeled 500 mb charts it might be tough to really tell the flow pattern apart, but that’s a bullet I’m saving for the real deal.

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3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It wasn’t solely the QPF output.  Brian posted images of the SD that were in the 5SD area.  The winds never materialized.  Models struggle with storms in these transitional periods.

I’m pretty sure the 5SD is verifying, what’s not is location and thus getting it to the ground/forcing the QPF.

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