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October Coastal - Big Rain Potential


dendrite
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21 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Stiff breeze, but dry so far.

Latest discussion out of Taunton looks serious. Making last minute preparations, hoarding IPA and Slim Jims. Good luck, everyone.


MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES
AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

wow sounds serious

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1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

yesterday on FB, NWS BOX posted a rainfall map with totals at the MA/NH border around 1.5-2.0”. around the same time, NWS GYX posted a rainfall map with totals at the MA/NH border around 0.25”. it must have been pretty crazy, seeing that gradient on the models. Hard to believe that the state line can stop qpf like that!

Seriously, though, GYX and BOX need to coordinate more. that is just not a good look

I agree it's not a great look, but sometimes in the short term you just have to go with what you think is going to happen, it's in the best interest of your users. 

I stand by my 0.25" since it hasn't rained yet at ASH.

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53 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This storm is a good tune up for winter. Gotta let it get within 24hrs before going full Bruce Schwoegler. 

I agree totally, Its going to be a rough winter if some just rely on modeling, The GFS looks like you may have to weight even less then before as every storm will be a snowstorm with its cold bias this winter, Still don't know how the last Euro upgrade is going to shake out either until we get the first legit threat.

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11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

partly sunny here and 60.   Breezy.  Big ol bust as most forecasts had a wind/rainstorm all day.

Yesterday morning all local stations said yesterday was going to be cloudy with showers developing as the day went on, and today pretty much a wash out.  In actuality Lol..., yesterday was the Washout (rained steady all day), and today is Sunny.    

I mean that’s a total fail on all accounts.  Holy smokes.  

Tough one for the local Pros. 

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yesterday morning all local stations said yesterday was going to be cloudy with showers developing as the day went on, and today pretty much a wash out.  In actuality Lol..., yesterday was the Washout (rained steady all day), and today is Sunny.    

I mean that’s a total fail on all accounts.  Holy smokes.  

Tough one for the local Pros. 

We say modeling is better but we're still prone to busts such as this one.  Up to 64 here....maybe a run at 70?  LOL.

on a personal note glad we got a good drink yesterday-badly needed here.

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We say modeling is better but we're still prone to busts such as this one.  Up to 64 here....maybe a run at 70?  LOL.

on a personal note glad we got a good drink yesterday-badly needed here.

Anytime something is progged to back in/stall etc, there’s a huge bust potential with that type of set up..in either direction it seems.  

Yes yesterday’s rain was good. 

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Anytime something is progged to back in/stall etc, there’s a huge bust potential with that type of set up..in either direction it seems.  

Yes yesterday’s rain was good. 

Location, location, location.  No bust at ACK (about 0.1% of Boston's wx bailiwick) - they've reported heavy rain in recent hours and winds 30sG50 since I first looked at 7 this morning.  Maybe all that RA and many hours of sustained TS-force wind loosens a few tree roots? 

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This situation sort of reminds me about in the winter when storms do hit us but because of the super dry airmass or positioning/strength of the high pressure, the snow just has a hell of a time reaching the ground or at about half of it gets eaten up overall.  I hope this isn't a harbinger of things to come.:yikes:

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3 hours ago, Hoth said:

Stiff breeze, but dry so far.

Latest discussion out of Taunton looks serious. Making last minute preparations, hoarding IPA and Slim Jims. Good luck, everyone.


MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES
AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

Lol. Was this one of the discussions put out by the New Orleans NWS prior to Katrina? I remember that ‘high rise buildings will sway dangerously. A few to the point of total collapse’ line. 

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