Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This storm is a great reason why the whole field will be replaced by robots soon enough. It's ok to mention that the impacts might not be what was first though a couple of days ago. That message was seen on guidance yesterday, but even now...I am seeing 2-3" to the north of Boston and 3-6" just south of the city. I don't understand why we can't just convey what will happen when things begin to change. We keep continuing with this notion to continue to sensationalize everything and it does nothing but make the science and the mets look bad. In my business, we are always trying to push situational awareness out and at least convey as accurately as we can when things change. Sometimes it's a little too late, and you can't knee jerk either...but we all know when it's time to hold 'em or fold 'em. Its been like this as long as I have been around. Remember all your early childhood disappointments when 8 to 12 turned to 1 to rain. You didn't probably realize the rain option because all you heard was snow. Nothing has changed hype wise just more access to hype. Rather than news at 6 and 11 its news every press of your finger all built on the initial hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I think there is a tendency to get too specific too early. It's one thing when we talk about impacts here on the board, but when actual forecasts are going out that describe in detail how the storm will evolve 72+ hours in advance stretches beyond our capabilities. QPF is a great example, it's just a poorly forecast variable by the models and even over 48 hours it can change quite a bit. I know with my colleagues I see way too much trust in models, and especially the latest model run. The hill I'm prepared to die on this winter is holding onto watches longer. We shouldn't be crying wolf on 40% of them. I do understand people want to prepare and sometimes we go out of our comfort zone to help do that and risk not having a good forecast due to what you describe above. It seems like we have trouble (or maybe fear?) of adjusting to near term trends/guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The HRRR now through hr 18 is .25". This is not a big deal at all. I will take the way over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I will take the way over here That's just T+18hrs out. More probably after, but euro is not far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Forecasts have improved immensely. Nws are hereos in tragic conditions. Hype is off the hook in this country. Being first, being the loudest wins. If wrong, like bad news reporting, rarely gets walked back and move on to the next hype. Pete Repete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Wow, stunning blue sky morning. Talk about blown forecast for these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I do understand people want to prepare and sometimes we go out of our comfort zone to help do that and risk not having a good forecast due to what you describe above. It seems like we have trouble (or maybe fear?) of adjusting to near term trends/guidance. I think one of the hardest things to do is pull the plug on your own forecast. And I know people I work with struggle to know when to take the forecast in a new direction (positive or negative busts) in the near term. Like it's fine to say gusts to 70 mph are possible on the Cape, but if that's the upper bound what's the lower bound? 48 hours out 30 mph might be just as likely as 70 mph, but we never hear the 30. 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Forecasts have improved immensely. Nws are hereos in tragic conditions. Hype is off the hook in this country. Being first, being the loudest wins. If wrong, like bad news reporting, rarely gets walked back and move on to the next hype. Pete Repete That I'll totally agree with. The NWS is struggling with that mentality given all the social media-rologists out there. My opinion is I would rather the NWS be the right answer than the first answer. If nothing else maybe the HazSimp process will move us towards a more traffic light mentality. Have a yellow light/caution product that "gets the word out" without details, and when it's time to honk you have the red light/warning. As things currently stand we don't have a great product set for events we know will be below warning criteria but will still have impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 I looked at the NAM. Might luck out in Foxboro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Sun is out but breezy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think one of the hardest things to do is pull the plug on your own forecast. And I know people I work with struggle to know when to take the forecast in a new direction (positive or negative busts) in the near term. Like it's fine to say gusts to 70 mph are possible on the Cape, but if that's the upper bound what's the lower bound? 48 hours out 30 mph might be just as likely as 70 mph, but we never hear the 30. That I'll totally agree with. The NWS is struggling with that mentality given all the social media-rologists out there. My opinion is I would rather the NWS be the right answer than the first answer. If nothing else maybe the HazSimp process will move us towards a more traffic light mentality. Have a yellow light/caution product that "gets the word out" without details, and when it's time to honk you have the red light/warning. As things currently stand we don't have a great product set for events we know will be below warning criteria but will still have impacts. Its like DIT is running the world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I looked at the NAM. Might luck out in Foxboro? All those people who bet the under..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Its like DIT is running the world. He runs the board so people like him do run the world. Look at his boy Trump, prime example. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: All those people who bet the under..... It’s down to 41 now so we heavily bet the over quickly before the number climbs before kickoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Proving pretty difficult to get any rain in here today. Painfully slow process Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He runs the board so people like him do run the world. Look at his boy Trump, prime example. My post was a joke and not political. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Scooter rage this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Mine post was a joke and not political. Nor is mine. Simply stating hype and social media darlings rule the world. Isn’t that what you were referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nor is mine. Simply stating hype and social media darlings rule the world. Isn’t that what you were referring to? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 No rage, and who knows...watch us get 5" now..lol. I just feel like the field is becoming more and more of a joke all around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No rage, and who knows...watch us get 5" now..lol. I just feel like the field is becoming more and more of a joke all around. It better pound between now and 18z if the hi-res stuff is going to be right. Inch an hour for the next 4 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No rage, and who knows...watch us get 5" now..lol. I just feel like the field is becoming more and more of a joke all around. Maybe you're too tuned in to the Social media piece? Turn off the Twitter/FB machines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Mea Culpa..Scott was right. I should have listened. Wish casting this into a big deal wasn’t going to make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No rage, and who knows...watch us get 5" now..lol. I just feel like the field is becoming more and more of a joke all around. The meteorology field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Maybe you're too tuned in to the Social media piece? Turn off the Twitter/FB machines. It's not social media unfortunately. Anyways, I'm done. Watch us get 5" and me look like a fool..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It better pound between now and 18z if the hi-res stuff is going to be right. Inch an hour for the next 4 hours? PYM south look good. But BOS north seems to be on the line. Looking at GYX, that rain shield is not gaining latitude really. Look at 850 theta-e. Where is the WAA? if anything is dries out again this ftn north of the pike. In fact, best WAA doesn't come until it occludes and unravels tomorrow aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Mea Culpa..Scott was right. I should have listened. Wish casting this into a big deal wasn’t going to make it happen. Models didn't make much sense. Pumping out high qpf results when you could clearly see mid levels and the surface low looked to consolidate SE. The mesoanalysis page is truly a godsend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Maybe you're too tuned in to the Social media piece? Turn off the Twitter/FB machines. This is good advice for pretty much everything...not just weather. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 Mostly clear and 44F. Trying to stay away from windows today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: Mostly clear and 44F. Trying to stay away from windows today. But it’s a perfect day to clean them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 yesterday on FB, NWS BOX posted a rainfall map with totals at the MA/NH border around 1.5-2.0”. around the same time, NWS GYX posted a rainfall map with totals at the MA/NH border around 0.25”. it must have been pretty crazy, seeing that gradient on the models. Hard to believe that the state line can stop qpf like that! Seriously, though, GYX and BOX need to coordinate more. that is just not a good look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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