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October Coastal - Big Rain Potential


dendrite
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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The "Perfect Storm" idiots were my favorite.

There's a reason I've been camping out in the winter thread. This has been a snoozer outside of far SE Areas. It's s nice storm for them but back our way it's run of the mill October wx. 

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To be fair, this isn't your run of the mill storm coming up the coast. It's a slow/stalled system that's wobbling. Very hard to accurately predict where and how much the heavy rain bands will be in the days leading up to this.

Still, the models did a poor job in the days leading up to this relatively.

Hopefully this isn't a bad sign for winter forecasting. If so, we're going to be in for a long frustrating winter.

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58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's a reason I've been camping out in the winter thread. This has been a snoozer outside of far SE Areas. It's s nice storm for them but back our way it's run of the mill October wx. 

Chilly, breezy and periods of rain, heavy at times, is what October weather is all about. 

The spots that get 2-3"+ rainfall though is a pretty decent event regardless of any wind.

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9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Tomorrow looks pretty wet here. Rain totals could be decent 

Run of the mill at the coast ( not you Will) might be the worst take I have seen in these threads in years. But anytime it doesn’t effect interior Mass you will see similar posts in here. Look up 12/21/09

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Run of the mill at the coast ( not you Will) might be the worst take I have seen in these threads in years. But anytime it doesn’t effect interior Mass you will see similar posts in here. Look up 12/21/09

For this time of year it’s rather anomalous, but I’m not sure the impacts outside of erosion are going to be substantial. If this were 50-70 miles NW it’s a different story. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For this time of year it’s rather anomalous, but I’m not sure the impacts outside of erosion are going to be substantial. If this were 50-70 miles NW it’s a different story. 

True totally always a coastal issue only with some heavy rain at the east facing coast nearest the mid level forcing. If this were winter there would be a different tone and I would be nearing 10 inches lol .8 so far, reports over 1.5 at the south coast of RI

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37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Chilly, breezy and periods of rain, heavy at times, is what October weather is all about. 

The spots that get 2-3"+ rainfall though is a pretty decent event regardless of any wind.

Lol, isn’t October the month that features the most sunny days??  Or am I thinking of another month??  

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54 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

To be fair, this isn't your run of the mill storm coming up the coast. It's a slow/stalled system that's wobbling. Very hard to accurately predict where and how much the heavy rain bands will be in the days leading up to this.

Still, the models did a poor job in the days leading up to this relatively.

Hopefully this isn't a bad sign for winter forecasting. If so, we're going to be in for a long frustrating winter.

Its a pretty standard occurence for the majority of folks.

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This storm is a great reason why the whole field will be replaced by robots soon enough. It's ok to mention that the impacts might not be what was first though a couple of days ago. That message was seen on guidance yesterday, but even now...I am seeing 2-3" to the north of Boston and 3-6" just south of the city. I don't understand why we can't just convey what will happen when things begin to change. We keep continuing with this notion to continue to sensationalize everything and it does nothing but make the science and the mets look bad. In my business, we are always trying to push situational awareness out and at least convey as accurately as we can when things change. Sometimes it's a little too late, and you can't knee jerk either...but we all know when it's time to hold 'em or fold 'em. 

 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This storm is a great reason why the whole field will be replaced by robots soon enough. It's ok to mention that the impacts might not be what was first though a couple of days ago. That message was seen on guidance yesterday, but even now...I am seeing 2-3" to the north of Boston and 3-6" just south of the city. I don't understand why we can't just convey what will happen when things begin to change. We keep continuing with this notion to continue to sensationalize everything and it does nothing but make the science and the mets look bad. In my business, we are always trying to push situational awareness out and at least convey as accurately as we can when things change. Sometimes it's a little too late, and you can't knee jerk either...but we all know when it's time to hold 'em or fold 'em. 

I think there is a tendency to get too specific too early. It's one thing when we talk about impacts here on the board, but when actual forecasts are going out that describe in detail how the storm will evolve 72+ hours in advance stretches beyond our capabilities. QPF is a great example, it's just a poorly forecast variable by the models and even over 48 hours it can change quite a bit. I know with my colleagues I see way too much trust in models, and especially the latest model run.

The hill I'm prepared to die on this winter is holding onto watches longer. We shouldn't be crying wolf on 40% of them. 

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