Baroclinic Zone Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Double D bust all around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 26 minutes ago, Greg said: This situation sort of reminds me about in the winter when storms do hit us but because of the super dry airmass or positioning/strength of the high pressure, the snow just has a hell of a time reaching the ground or at about half of it gets eaten up overall. I hope this isn't a harbinger of things to come. Was thinking the same thing when I was outside under big cold raindrops but every storm is different not predictors 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Was thinking the same thing when I was outside under big cold raindrops but every storm is different not predictors Could also throw out the ol’ “it’s good to see coastal storms in October” as that’s a weenie lore good news sign. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: Dream job for a snow deprived weenie! Oh man is she in for a treat. Either that or we know who the sacrificial lamb is if SNE gets crushed over and over while NNE smokes circus for 3 months. Can’t wait for her to have that first big NW flow upslope event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Not for me ... I was down on this all along... case 1 NAM is routinely too far W and NW with cyclonic influence in the west Atlantic. Not sure if that is true everywhere...it may be something unique to the oceanic-continental interfacing that exerts intense baroclinic compression in that vicinity that sometimes entices the physical processing of the model to overdo it at times. case 2 I'm not sure that is entirely untrue for all guidance frankly - if perhaps just more vividly coherently biased in the NAM than those others. Several significant cases where W-NW arcs were too extreme in models ... NWS bit hard on a Euro lie just a few recent years ago ( for example ) when that model was backing in a whopper CCB shield with 20+" of champagne snow in 55 mph wind gust clear to NE NJ and they had all of NYC in a high-end headline blizzard warning ... which busted with equal failure in the other direction. This stems back too... The big event in March 2001 that pivot into a C-NE and effectively jilted everyone ~ south ..that thing was originally slated to be an MA/NE juggernaut and that all but failed in most areas outside of central and N NE ... case 3 I mentioned two or three days ago that the isentropic surfaces on the Euro did not look that impressive ( anyway... before even considering the biases ) which made me wonder where the QPF was really coming from.. .Yeah, we could have argued for oreographic enhancing but 2 " ? heh... that's what I was seeing on some media coverage and I wasn't honestly a big fan of bigger numbers. I am actually singularly impressed that a cyclone of this satellite presentation and verification even got this far, considering the antecedent loading/kinematics were so weak. It seems this low was really almost born out of planetary torque balancing more so than a typical 'slug' of wind/max associated vorticity advection in the deep layer. Default in other words, ... big high moves E of Ontario over 2 to 3 languid days and all of the basic S of NS is in an E trade scenario probably just ends up twisting in on its self. Not sure that has the same mechanical forcing to drive a heavy rain shield W though. Some of this part is speculation... admittedly. Overall, it didn't sit well with me and I said so. This system really was an epic waste of time and coverage. It really had 0 redeeming value to it... All it did was ruin the sensible weather for three days, while simultaneously busting forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 45 minutes ago, dryslot said: Dry begets dry. I am happy as can be. Our rain deficit is going to dent the tick cycle a bit. Beautiful, dry, windy day here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 This reminds me of a blue balls event in late January 2004. We were in the bullseye for days only to have to system do what this one did. We ended up with 2 inches while NYC got 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 3 hours ago, correnjim1 said: wow sounds serious the 'swaying sky scrapers' makes it! hahaha ... oy I don't know what that is from, but it sounds like a numbed version of a p-wave event off and asteroid impact scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I am happy as can be. Our rain deficit is going to dent the tick cycle a bit. Beautiful, dry, windy day here. About the same here with some peaks of sun at times, 58/41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: About the same here with some peaks of sun at times, 58/41. It is a top 10 day up here. 66/35...warm after a crisp morning of 35F. Full sunshine. Spectacular foliage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Wow, good for Diane. From us saying glad we don’t live there, to us now saying wish we were there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not for me ... I was down on this all along... case 1 NAM is routinely too far W and NW with cyclonic influence in the west Atlantic. Not sure if that is true everywhere...it may be something unique to the oceanic-continental interfacing that exerts intense baroclinic compression in that vicinity that sometimes entices the physical processing of the model to overdo it at times. case 2 I'm not sure that is entirely untrue for all guidance frankly - if perhaps just more vividly coherently biased in the NAM than those others. Several significant cases where W-NW arcs were too extreme in models ... NWS bit hard on a Euro lie just a few recent years ago ( for example ) when that model was back 20+" of champagne snow in 55 mph wind gust to NE NJ and had all of NYC in a high end headlined blizzard warning ... which busted with equal failure in the other direction. This stems back too... The big event in March 2001 that pivot into a C-NE thing was originally slated to be an MA/NE juggernaut and that all but failed in most areas outside of central and N NE ... case 3 I mentioned two or three days ago that the isentropic surfaces on the Euro did not look that impressive ( anyway... before even considering the biases ) which made me wonder where the QPF was really coming from.. .Yeah, we could have argued for oreographic enhancing but 2 " ? heh... that's what I was seeing on some media coverage and I wasn't honestly a big fan of bigger numbers. I am actually singularly impressed that a cyclone of this satellite presentation and verification even got this far, considering the antecedent loading/kinematics were so weak. It seems this low was really almost born out of planetary torque balancing more so than a typical 'slug' of wind/max associated vorticity advection. Default in other words, ... bit high moves E of Ontario over 2 to 3 languid days and all of the basic S of NS is in an E trade scenario probably just ends up twisting in on its self. Not sure that has the same mechanical forcing to drive a heavy rain shield W though. Some of this part is speculation... admittedly. Overall, it didn't sit well with me and I said so. This system really was an epic waste of time and coverage. It really had 0 redeeming value to it... All it did was ruin the sensible weather for three days, while simultaneously busting forecasts. 2 of the worst busts I've ever been apart of living in NE NJ. Such disappointment in 2001 when I was a kid expecting 2-3 feet of snow and barely ending up with 6 inches. I can still picture that Weather Channel graphic with a huge area of purple covering pretty much all of the Mid-Atlantic into SNE saying "widespread 2-3+ feet" and Paul Kocin honking hard. Jan 15' was like 50 miles too far west with the big snows but because it's one of the most populated 50 mile areas in the country, it was a big deal. 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: the 'swaying sky scrapers' makes it! hahaha ... oy I don't know what that is from, but it sounds like a numbed version of a p-wave event off and asteroid impact scenario. Pretty sure it was a discussion out of the NO NWS or NHC for Katrina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Wow, good for Diane. From us saying glad we don’t live there, to us now saying wish we were there. See, dreams can come true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wow, good for Diane. From us saying glad we don’t live there, to us now saying wish we were there. She went right to the top of the class, rivaling J.Spin inch for inch out of the sky...after so much winter rain in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: She went right to the top of the class, rivaling J.Spin inch for inch out of the sky. Alex and Diane are good people and we get another NNE poster too! All is good even though the SNE storm is not quite working out. Also great sunset possibilities for those on the western edge of the cloud shield later today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said: Lol. Was this one of the discussions put out by the New Orleans NWS prior to Katrina? I remember that ‘high rise buildings will sway dangerously. A few to the point of total collapse’ line. That's the one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: She went right to the top of the class, rivaling J.Spin inch for inch out of the sky...after so much winter rain in recent years. I can’t even figure out some of those set ups where she got rain and even the cape got snow LOL. But good for her and hopefully she has a fun winter up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Big time fail today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 She just went from being off Kevin W's snow list to the top of it in one swoop..................... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: She just went from being off Kevin W's snow list to the top of it in one swoop..................... She’s not even going to work. She’ll be out in the snow like Winona Ryder in Edward Scissorhands....just twirling around in the dendrites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: She’s not even going to work. She’ll be out in the snow like Winona Ryder in Edward Scissorhands....just twirling around in the dendrites. Don't know how she would be able to work anyways being in awe with snow falling 24/7 outside the window D-J-F-M.................... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Could also throw out the ol’ “it’s good to see coastal storms in October” as that’s a weenie lore good news sign. It was about this time in 1995 when the coastals began their endless parade. (A parade that sadly was contaminated by some truly destructive cutters in JFM.) 2 of the worst busts I've ever been apart of living in NE NJ. Such disappointment in 2001 when I was a kid expecting 2-3 feet of snow and barely ending up with 6 inches. I can still picture that Weather Channel graphic with a huge area of purple covering pretty much all of the Mid-Atlantic into SNE saying "widespread 2-3+ feet" and Paul Kocin honking hard. Jan 15' was like 50 miles too far west with the big snows but because it's one of the most populated 50 mile areas in the country, it was a big deal. I was fortunate enough to come of age during NNJ's snow bonanza of 1956-61, with 7 storms of 18"+ (though 2/58 might've been a bit less) and 3 of them reaching 24", possibly more. Feb. '61 records include the only 50"+ depths I've seen for NJ, though our place topped out closer to 45". However, I share your grief about Jan. '15 - was hoping the grandkids in SNJ would see their first ever 10"+ event. Forecast was 12-16 as we went to bed on the 26th, which verified as 1.5" during the mid morn, all melted by 2 PM; bleah!. They did get their snowcave-building crush job a year later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 .03” of fail here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Barely .25” total. That BOX map will be all time fail. At least lots of sticks down for some damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Is this it for the rain or will we see some more tomorrow and Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Had, at best, a sprinkle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 Belichick is really going to hate meteorologists now. He probably got word of 5-10", practiced all week with a soaking wet ball and wind mills, and game time ends up 5mph with a scattered sprinkle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 29 minutes ago, dendrite said: Belichick is really going to hate meteorologists now. He probably got word of 5-10", practiced all week with a soaking wet ball and wind mills, and game time ends up 5mph with a scattered sprinkle. Eh all that practicing for rn+ will probably serve him well come week 16 @ home just before Christmas 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said: Had, at best, a sprinkle. Glad to see you changed the Avatar...it was time lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 So much Diane talk, her ears must be ringing! I should clarify, she hasn't officially accepted yet but we are definitely interested. She is currently on her way to Mass then we should be able to meet over the next several days to make things official. It will be fun to have another weenie in the area, so we can go from me JSpin and PF to 4 when we talk about never ending flurries. Watch this be the year we get nothing! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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