“Let’s Talk Winter”

[hoosierwx]

From PAH

Evansville and Paducah will finish the 2019-2020 winter season (Dec-Feb) with no measurable snow. First time on record for Evansville this has occurred. Tied least snowy winter for Paducah, last set in 1991-1992.

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[Indystorm]

5 minutes ago, hoosierwx said:

From PAH

Evansville and Paducah will finish the 2019-2020 winter season (Dec-Feb) with no measurable snow. First time on record for Evansville this has occurred. Tied least snowy winter for Paducah, last set in 1991-1992.

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Absolutely amazing.   Global warming anyone?

[pondo1000]

1 hour ago, hoosierwx said:

From PAH

Evansville and Paducah will finish the 2019-2020 winter season (Dec-Feb) with no measurable snow. First time on record for Evansville this has occurred. Tied least snowy winter for Paducah, last set in 1991-1992.

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That is just unreal 

[Chambana]

13 hours ago, hoosierwx said:

From PAH

Evansville and Paducah will finish the 2019-2020 winter season (Dec-Feb) with no measurable snow. First time on record for Evansville this has occurred. Tied least snowy winter for Paducah, last set in 1991-1992.

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Insane. Really puts into perspective just how mild of a winter this really was. My dad who lives 45 minutes SE of Champaign recorded 11.3” on the season. This winter really was 2011-2012 all over again. 

[Hoosier]

Even more bizarre is that the only measurable snow for Paducah and Evansville so far in 2019-20 came outside of meteorological winter in November.  That November snow (1.2" for Paducah and 1.1" for Evansville) will prevent it from being the least snowy first to last flake season.  Paducah has actually had a few years when only a trace fell in the entire snow season.

[buckeye]

16 hours ago, hoosierwx said:

From PAH

Evansville and Paducah will finish the 2019-2020 winter season (Dec-Feb) with no measurable snow. First time on record for Evansville this has occurred. Tied least snowy winter for Paducah, last set in 1991-1992.

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Shout out to JB and the gang at WxBell!   Nice work!

[pondo1000]

Just now, buckeye said:

Shout out to JB and the gang at WxBell!   Nice work!

Time to put the analog theory to bed like the SAI. 

[buckeye]

4 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Time to put the analog theory to bed like the SAI. 

Also they can shelve the Indian Ocean Dipole that was the new hot term back in Fall and was a factor in the bullish winter forecasts for the OV.    I agree with you on analogs....they are a joke, I'm not sure why so many mets use them.   Chaos factor alone pretty much guarantees that seasonal analog forecasts will fail.   

This year the AO and the EPO ruled.   A relentless positive AO and EPO are the kiss of death...period.   EPO probably having more weight than the AO.  It seemed everytime the EPO went negative we went cold.

[pondo1000]

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Also they can shelve the Indian Ocean Dipole that was the new hot term back in Fall and was a factor in the bullish winter forecasts for the OV.    I agree with you on analogs....they are a joke, I'm not sure why so many mets use them.   Chaos factor alone pretty much guarantees that seasonal analog forecasts will fail.   

This year the AO and the EPO ruled.   A relentless positive AO and EPO are the kiss of death...period.   EPO probably having more weight than the AO.  It seemed everytime the EPO went negative we went cold.

How anyone pays Bastard’s group anything for their analog based predictions I’ll never know.

For next Fall,  here is what I want to see or not see:

NO frickin warm pool of water off Alaska. When it’s there in the Fall, it goes away just in time for winter (at least last 2 yrs it has).

Give me a mild Halloween! Last couple of years it’s been cold (even had flurries this year).

No crazy early cold/snow for November. Give me a seasonal Thanksgiving & maybe I nice step down to colder air as we progress through December. 

None of this is scientific whatsoever. I don’t care. I just want to start off differently next year. Tired if this BS! LOL

[hawkeye_wx]

I like to see people try to forecast winter, but the skill just isn't there.  You may as well flip a coin, but err on the warm side.

[buckeye]

47 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

How anyone pays Bastard’s group anything for their analog based predictions I’ll never know.

For next Fall,  here is what I want to see or not see:

NO frickin warm pool of water off Alaska. When it’s there in the Fall, it goes away just in time for winter (at least last 2 yrs it has).

Give me a mild Halloween! Last couple of years it’s been cold (even had flurries this year).

No crazy early cold/snow for November. Give me a seasonal Thanksgiving & maybe I nice step down to colder air as we progress through December. 

None of this is scientific whatsoever. I don’t care. I just want to start off differently next year. Tired if this BS! LOL

YES.   Nice mild dry October and November then the hammer comes down about the 3rd week in December and we get winter, (with a few warm ups here and there to keep things interesting and the atmosphere primed),  until mid Feb.   Yup, 6-8 weeks of memorable winter.    It's all I'm asking....   Where do I submit my order?

 

[pondo1000]

27 minutes ago, buckeye said:

YES.   Nice mild dry October and November then the hammer comes down about the 3rd week in December and we get winter, (with a few warm ups here and there to keep things interesting and the atmosphere primed),  until mid Feb.   Yup, 6-8 weeks of memorable winter.    It's all I'm asking....   Where do I submit my order?

 

Are we asking for too much?! LOL

[Hoosier]

49 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I like to see people try to forecast winter, but the skill just isn't there.  You may as well flip a coin, but err on the warm side.

There are some people who I would say are better than a coin flip, but I haven't seen anybody nail it year after year.  The good ones are more like 70% success rate.

[pondo1000]

Just now, Hoosier said:

There are some people who I would say are better than a coin flip, but I haven't seen anybody nail it year after year.  The good ones are more like 70% success rate.

70%? Who? I’ll pay more attention to them! DS did well w/ his winter forecast this year.

[cyclone77]

This is why I always follow the farmer's almanac.  60% of the time it works every time.  

[pondo1000]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

This is why I always follow the farmer's almanac.  60% of the time it works every time.  

Hah, yeah. There is no one out there who has 70% success rate. No way.

[michsnowfreak]

On 2/29/2020 at 8:54 PM, Indystorm said:

Absolutely amazing.   Global warming anyone?

Just a warm Winter and some extra bad luck for Evansville and Paducah. These winters going to happen from time to time.  Seeing as though they only average 8 to 10" for met Winter, I'm surprised this has not happened more often to be honest with you.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, pondo1000 said:

Hah, yeah. There is no one out there who has 70% success rate. No way.

I guess it depends how you grade.  I think the elite forecasters do hit the general character of the winter more often than not.  If somebody goes warmer than average, say +1 to +3 for DJF and it ends up +4, I count that as a success because of the long lead time involved.  

[buckeye]

13 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

This is why I always follow the farmer's almanac.  60% of the time it works every time.  

Not so good this year.   I believe they had my region as being....let's see if I can recall the scientific term again....hmmmm...oh yea...   "Bone chilling cold"

That being said, I give them more credit than JB.  At least the Farmers Almanac can use the excuse that their methodology, (furriness of squirrels and stripes on a caterpillar), can be flawed at times.   JB actually uses meterological science and still ends up with a forecast opposite of reality.  

I just did my usual end of season subscription cancellation.   I really wish I could find a model site as nice and thorough as wxbell's....and as cheap.  I hate giving my money to them but their model site is awesome.    I sent an email and asked if I could get a subscription discount if I just had access to the model pages and not the meterologists blogs and videos....no response 

 

[LakeEffectOH]

4 hours ago, buckeye said:

Not so good this year.   I believe they had my region as being....let's see if I can recall the scientific term again....hmmmm...oh yea...   "Bone chilling cold"

That being said, I give them more credit than JB.  At least the Farmers Almanac can use the excuse that their methodology, (furriness of squirrels and stripes on a caterpillar), can be flawed at times.   JB actually uses meterological science and still ends up with a forecast opposite of reality.  

I just did my usual end of season subscription cancellation.   I really wish I could find a model site as nice and thorough as wxbell's....and as cheap.  I hate giving my money to them but their model site is awesome.    I sent an email and asked if I could get a subscription discount if I just had access to the model pages and not the meterologists blogs and videos....no response 

 

Have you looked at https://weathermodels.com/ ?  Their prices are reasonable for hobbyist and even commercial users.  There are just as many models and maybe even more than what WXBell offers.

I am cancelling my WXBell subscription and restarting the WX Models one.

[buckeye]

2 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Have you looked at https://weathermodels.com/ ?  Their prices are reasonable for hobbyist and even commercial users.  There are just as many models and maybe even more than what WXBell offers.

I am cancelling my WXBell subscription and restarting the WX Models one.

thanks I'll check it out

[Cary67]

On 3/1/2020 at 1:19 PM, hawkeye_wx said:

I like to see people try to forecast winter, but the skill just isn't there.  You may as well flip a coin, but err on the warm side.

NOAA has it right. Just copy and paste AN temps and BN to EC for snowfall. 8/10 years it will be right.

[dilly84]

Well it appears for most of us, winter is over. Talk to most of you all 8 months barring a bad severe outbreak. Sad winter is was so incredibly horrible. Next winter is ours. 50" winter coming. 

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/3/2020 at 6:14 AM, Cary67 said:

NOAA has it right. Just copy and paste AN temps and BN to EC for snowfall. 8/10 years it will be right.

Not true. 6 of the past 10 winters here had above avg snowfall, and 4 out of 10 were colder than normal.  The bottom line is long range forecasting is very difficult and with social media all over the place jumping on extreme model runs, there needs to be much much much more caution thrown to the general public when the seasonal forecasts are issued.

[Cary67]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not true. 6 of the past 10 winters here had above avg snowfall, and 4 out of 10 were colder than normal.  The bottom line is long range forecasting is very difficult and with social media all over the place jumping on extreme model runs, there needs to be much much much more caution thrown to the general public when the seasonal forecasts are issued.

It is true that the NOAA predominantly puts out winter forecasts for the conus that are mostly AN. That may not verify but I can understand why they do. I would say your AN or near normal snowfall this year was more a matter of luck. Not that ORD hasnt had a run of AN snowfalls the last 10 years. Will see but I think it will become increasingly difficult for the pattern to line up for persistent cold rather then persistent warm. I also think you are going to keep hearing more often in subsequent winters,"If only we had some cold air to work with this system would have been great." 

[chuckster2012]

Don't look now but 00z GFS has a couple inches of snow for much of Indiana and Ohio on the 15th. It'll probably be gone by tomorrow though..

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, Cary67 said:

It is true that the NOAA predominantly puts out winter forecasts for the conus that are mostly AN. That may not verify but I can understand why they do. I would say your AN or near normal snowfall this year was more a matter of luck. Not that ORD hasnt had a run of AN snowfalls the last 10 years. Will see but I think it will become increasingly difficult for the pattern to line up for persistent cold rather then persistent warm. I also think you are going to keep hearing more often in subsequent winters,"If only we had some cold air to work with this system would have been great." 

Only time will tell. Try not to get too jaded about this unusually winter-less winter for the eastern half of the conus. I dont think the annoyances of suppression or cold and dry will exactly be going away anytime soon anymore than "I wish we had more cold air to work with".

 

FYI, I used 2010-11 thu 2019-20 for my "4 of the past 10 winters were colder than avg" but what interesting, if you count the "cold season" of NDJFM, it was an even 5 colder and 5 milder. Even more interesting....in the 10 yr period 2008-09 thru 2017-18, we actually had 6 of the 10 DJF's COLDER than avg here and 7 of the 10 snowier than avg!

 

I used 2009-10 thru 2018-19 for "6 of the past 10 winters were snowier than avg", didnt count this snow season as it is not over. Regardless of what the pattern shows, we have another month and a half before we are out of the woods for measurable snow (and more than that in rare cases). At 36.6", DTW is 0.6" above avg today, but will fall below in a few days. If 5.9"+ doesnt fall before the end of the season, this will still have been a below avg snow season, though certainly not by much.

[Cary67]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Only time will tell. Try not to get too jaded about this unusually winter-less winter for the eastern half of the conus. I dont think the annoyances of suppression or cold and dry will exactly be going away anytime soon anymore than "I wish we had more cold air to work with".

 

FYI, I used 2010-11 thu 2019-20 for my "4 of the past 10 winters were colder than avg" but what interesting, if you count the "cold season" of NDJFM, it was an even 5 colder and 5 milder. Even more interesting....in the 10 yr period 2008-09 thru 2017-18, we actually had 6 of the 10 DJF's COLDER than avg here and 7 of the 10 snowier than avg!

 

I used 2009-10 thru 2018-19 for "6 of the past 10 winters were snowier than avg", didnt count this snow season as it is not over. Regardless of what the pattern shows, we have another month and a half before we are out of the woods for measurable snow (and more than that in rare cases). At 36.6", DTW is 0.6" above avg today, but will fall below in a few days. If 5.9"+ doesnt fall before the end of the season, this will still have been a below avg snow season, though certainly not by much.

Thx, that is interesting. Wonder if ORD has seen 5/10 recent winters below normal temps also. I am sure by next winter my gullible this will be a great snow season attitude will resurface.lol

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/8/2020 at 10:28 AM, Cary67 said:

Thx, that is interesting. Wonder if ORD has seen 5/10 recent winters below normal temps also. I am sure by next winter my gullible this will be a great snow season attitude will resurface.lol

Without looking up the exact numbers, I would imagine so 

[RogueWaves]

On 3/9/2020 at 5:00 PM, Angrysummons said:

How good is the reanalysis data back from 1851-1947?? It shows the January 1st 1864 storm............not so impressive.

I heard radar was down for that storm. Can prolly toss that one..