October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

[midatlanticweather]

I have rain and snow in my forecast Thursday night! We will see. Lol

[JakkelWx]

Models have backed off of the idea of a +NAO this month. Very promising news.

 

[Wonderdog]

Looks like we might be close to a nice storm late next week. GFS has subtle changes between 0z and 6z runs today. Looks like a good tracking event for our first shot of some snow.

[mappy]

WBAL mentioned snow in their forecast for Thursday. Was surprised. Euro is a mix up this way briefly, so very briefly. Lol at those gfs runs. Weenie season starting early this year! 

[Eskimo Joe]

14 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS with high temps 30F below normal in 10 days. Lol

I’ll take the over. 

As for snow, I consider any non accumulating snow that is noticeable to everyone, and not just us squinting at microscopic flakes, to be great in November. Measurable is a total win. 

What time will Barney hit my house?

[frd]

 

Great Lakes to cool off and snow in SE Canada.  Very impressive forecast  map. 

The question later in the month is whether there is a whole sale pattern change,  or just a relaxation , even a version of an Indian summer if you may.  

I remember Joel Myers saying in the old days , 1970's and 1980's you can only pull the rubber band so much before it pulls back or snaps.  In this case keeping a highly anomalous winter like pattern for an extended period of time makes you wonder the implications for the first 1/3 of the meteorological winter.  

Of course, there are things that argue after a brief to moderate relaxation we go back to what the base state may want to provide, which is an active storm track(s), and penetrations of cold air. this takes place as wavelengths continue to lengthen.   

 

 

 

[frd]

Taken with a grain of salt , but nice to see the AO negative and staying negative. I think the Euro Ensemble index more likely to be correct.  ( last image ) 

 

[CAPE]

10 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Wait a minute..you takin' this seriously?

Gonna be fun around here this winter with the "new" GFS.

[Chris78]

17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Gonna be fun around here this winter with the "new" GFS.

Alot of reaping by the end of the year lol

[psuhoffman]

10 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If nothing else this is a good way to learn about the strengths and weaknesses of the new FV3 GFS.

Leans very suppressed/squashed compared to CMC/EURO/ICON at the moment.

Actually if the new gfs still has a cold bias and we adjust for that it would explain the discrepancy with last nights euro. Remove the colder profile and the enhanced baroclonocity from that and you get a weaker wave sliding off (that is slightly farther north) with very little frozen anywhere. 

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually if the new gfs still has a cold bias and we adjust for that it would explain the discrepancy with last nights euro. Remove the colder profile and the enhanced baroclonocity from that and you get a weaker wave sliding off (that is slightly farther north) with very little frozen anywhere. 

Likely.

I mean, it's fun to see it on a model, but...GFS.  In early November. 

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Gonna be fun around here this winter with the "new" GFS.

I’ve had arguments with people in the NWP field and I get that predicting snow is only one factor but snowfall is one of the most high profile events they do predict. Below tropical in impact but snowfall is more common and impacts a much larger population in the U.S.  Severe also but that’s more a nowcast then medium/long range thing.  When it comes to medium range snowfall is the prime time game for many and yet they roll out a model that sucks at it. I just don’t get it.  And I’ve defended our NWP on almost everything. 

[CAPE]

This is a touchy setup to be fair- fast flow, cold pressing, plus a SS vort in the SW that could try to partially phase with NS energy as it ejects. That looks less likely on recent runs, and ofc that's what folks in NE are rooting for. This is good practice for us, because odds are no matter how it plays out, it's probably mostly if not all rain for this region. Not sure I saw any flat wave scenarios on the Euro ens members that had much more than a r-s mix on the northern fringe

[Newman]

Not sure if some of y'all have seen, but Pivotal Weather now has free Hi-res ECMWF maps. Snowfall, precip type, and all. And in 6 hour intervals, not 24 hours. Just keep in mind for this winter.

Sample:

[NorthArlington101]

My brief amateur take on the 12z GFS is that not much changed other than the timing -- was earlier and hence less impactful for Central VA. Precip actually took a slight jog north, looked kinda EURO-y but more south for most of the run until it flipped to a NC snowstorm at the end.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

My brief amateur take on the 12z GFS is that not much changed other than the timing -- was earlier and hence less impactful for Central VA. Precip actually took a slight jog north, looked kinda EURO-y but more south for most of the run until it flipped to a NC snowstorm at the end.

It tries to do a bit of a phase job- definitely more dig in the NS- but positive tilt/progressive and it's too little, too late.

[CAPE]

Slight differences in the LR on the GFS- the big blue ball of doom for the 13th is gone. The negative 15-20C departures are now +3 lol. No more Barney. 

Then we really torch after that.

[NorthArlington101]

12z GEFS was a respectable improvement over 6z for the northerners in the forum.

[CAPE]

12z Euro has a moderate snow for N half of PA into SNE.

[MDstorm]

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

12z Euro has a moderate snow for N half of PA into SNE.

Euro then snows on us day 8-9.

[JakkelWx]

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

12z Euro has a moderate snow for N half of PA into SNE.

Also has another coastal after that:

 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, MDstorm said:

Euro then snows on us day 8-9.

 

2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Also has another coastal after that

 

 

Sure does. I went to watch the Steelers-Colts game for a bit, then came back and looked at the rest of the run. Interesting. Long way out.

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 

Sure does. I went to watch the Steelers-Colts game for a bit, then came back and looked at the rest of the run. Interesting. Long way out.

Lots of Barney either way. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Lots of Barney either way. 

Guidance keeps spitting out looks like this, and it is real, things could get interesting early.

[WxUSAF]

I just hope when a pattern relax happens that it’s a reload and doesn’t flip back to big SE ridge. But hopefully this is the dominant background forcing (IO forcing the MJO in favorable phases, ENSO, QBO, etc) showing it’s hand.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Likely.

I mean, it's fun to see it on a model, but...GFS.  In early November. 

Definitely. I’m not negative on winter at all. I see some positive signs. Some things that aren’t great. But all in all I see more I like than not. That probably means not a blockbuster but not a dud either. Maybe better than “most” of our winters. The details of a storm in early November won’t impact my expectations for winter much. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Given the euro solution and the gfs ens (via psu) not sure I’d totally give up on the upcoming weekend system.

[poolz1]

A heck of a high pressure chain that stretches over the pole.  GEFS with 4 or 5 cold shots over the next 15 days.  

[NorthArlington101]

GFS is still very suppressed. Congrats Carolinas.

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS is still very suppressed. Congrats Carolinas.

I don't think this is going to work out well for the FV3.