CAPE Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Partially? Perpetually- as in constantly; never ending. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Perpetually- as in constantly; never ending. Shit, I read that all wrong. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Shit, I read that all wrong. I figured you did lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: You were saying .18z gets snow to the southern part of the forum . Both ops flake on us now Yes it was suppressed at 12z, but it's trying.. a little harder at 18z. I am not buying it though, not in early Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 right where we want it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: right where we want it Lol right. It will trend to NNE, where the Euro ens has it. That makes too much sense though, so maybe NC can get snow in Nov..they 'stole' our early Dec storm last year after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Lol right. It will trend to NNE, where the Euro ens has it. That makes too much sense though, so maybe NC can get snow in Nov..they 'stole' our early Dec storm last year after all.People forget that Central VA cashed out. Got a 1’ in Cville, I think even up to Fredericksburg got 5”. It’s definitely a mental game but I like seeing a suppressed look right now. Better than SNE model porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: That exact line was said in October 29, 2011 by many . Last year 11/15 as well . Actually first flakes are very common in early mid Nov up this way . It's all bonus baby before December Well if the bar is a few flakes in the air...then yeah sure. Veterans day(or before) snowstorms don't happen too often, even up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Meanwhile, Happy Hour GFS delivers snow for our area with its "day after tomorrow" killer vortex on the 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 GFS with high temps 30F below normal in 10 days. Lol I’ll take the over. As for snow, I consider any non accumulating snow that is noticeable to everyone, and not just us squinting at microscopic flakes, to be great in November. Measurable is a total win. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I thought the gfs was really close to something too. Man, the GFS is ALWAYS close to something as long as the thermometer is within spitting distance of freezing and the smallest bit of moisture is nearby...lol If they ain't improved it, does it still have value when it comes winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Man, the GFS is ALWAYS close to something as long as the thermometer is within spitting distance of freezing and the smallest bit of moisture is nearby...lol If they ain't improved it, does it still have value when it comes winter?I think this is the first winter with the fully upgraded FV3. We’ll find out, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Biggest Metro snow in my lifetime was Veterans Day, November 11, 1987. About a foot fell in thundersnow in less than 6 hours. A 20 minute drive from University of Maryland, College Park to Greenbelt took me 4 hours with cars abandoned everywhere. No one predicted it! I always start tracking around this date. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Factor in the progressive bias of the gfs and the amped bias of the euro and we should be shoveling next Friday. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Talk about weather porn lol. GFS has a huge cold snap incoming around the next weekend timeframe. Even caused an interesting choice of words by Dr. Maue: That's one hell of a cold blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Talk about weather porn lol. GFS has a huge cold snap incoming around the next weekend timeframe. Even caused an interesting choice of words by Dr. Maue: That's one hell of a cold blastI saw that tweet and was hoping he was just trolling with his choice of words describing the cold. Highs in the teens and 20s in the upper Midwest won’t devastate anyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 lol @ devastate What a tool. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 I imagine he’s trolling but hard to tell with him sometimes. Sort of like his views on climate. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I imagine he’s trolling but hard to tell with him sometimes. Sort of like his views on climate. He is on a growing list of people I completely ignore. I don’t have time for assclowns in my life. 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Now that’s exactly where I want a storm. Loved that GFS run. Definitely some Central VA bias but a good step forward for all. Legit window here for everyone. Would like to see a slight shift south on the Euro or CMC. Changed the map because that old one was bugged out... 42” in NC lol. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Now that’s exactly where I want a storm. Loved that GFS run. Definitely some Central VA bias but a good step forward for all. Legit window here for everyone. Would like to see a slight shift south on the Euro or CMC. Get that porn out of here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 24 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Now that’s exactly where I want a storm. Loved that GFS run. Definitely some Central VA bias but a good step forward for all. Legit window here for everyone. Would like to see a slight shift south on the Euro or CMC. Changed the map because that old one was bugged out... 42” in NC lol. Wait a minute..you takin' this seriously? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Wait a minute..you takin' this seriously?Meh, a little bit. I recognize the unlikelihood and definitely wont be disappointed when this fades into oblivion but the window is there and the GEFS/EPS have had a decent amount of support for first flakes over the past couple of runs. We only get a dozen (maybe a couple dozen) or so shots at cold and precip a year so I’ll pay attention to a look in November if a global model has a storm in 6-7 days. Keeps me entertained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 If nothing else this is a good way to learn about the strengths and weaknesses of the new FV3 GFS. Leans very suppressed/squashed compared to CMC/EURO/ICON at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Yay models are back to being an hour earlier Looks like 00z EURO says just kidding about the snow (@weathafella mentioned it already in the SNE forum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Wait a minute..you takin' this seriously? Yes. Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Does anyone know the difference between the Euro and Euro High Res? And why one has pType and Surface Precip for free and the other does not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 5 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: If nothing else this is a good way to learn about the strengths and weaknesses of the new FV3 GFS. Leans very suppressed/squashed compared to CMC/EURO/ICON at the moment. 0z Euro is flat, suppressed, and weak. Doesn't come together the same way in the upper levels. Precip gets as far north as SE PA. Verbatim maybe a R-S mix on the northern fringe. There are a significant number of ens members with a storm. The ones with legit snow almost all have it to our north favoring NE. These members develop a stronger coastal low further north. Mean total snow for extreme N MD is 0.8" through next Sat morning. Anywhere south of that is 0.1-0.2. The 2" line in N PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: 0z Euro is flat, suppressed, and weak. Doesn't come together the same way in the upper levels. Precip gets as far north as SE PA. Verbatim maybe a R-S mix on the northern fringe. There are a significant number of ens members with a storm. The ones with legit snow almost all have it to our north favoring NE. These members develop a stronger coastal low further north. Mean total snow for extreme N MD is 0.8" through next Sat morning. Anywhere south of that is 0.1-0.2. The 2" line in N PA. This winter is a bust. I’m out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Scraff said: This winter is a bust. I’m out. Need to cash in over the next 2 weeks with fantastic cooperation on the Pacific side bringing the cold. Sense of urgency!! Good to see persistence in the LR with the favorable PNA/EPO/WPO. If the pattern plays out as advertised, there probably will be some relaxation towards the end of the month, which would be a good thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now