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October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range


mattie g
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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS and EPS suggest a somewhat legitimate Day 9 threat window for sure. Something to casually keep an eye on.

Long way off, but yeah. Possibly a threat for the western highlands as it fits climo there. Places east of the mountains- realistically, maybe a period to watch for first flakes in the air.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Long way off, but yeah. Possibly a threat for the western highlands as it fits climo there. Places east of the mountains- realistically, maybe a period to watch for first flakes in the air.

18z GFS suggests flakes in the air Day 9. Actually like 13/20 GEFS members are somewhat interesting for this time of year, lol. 

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19 hours ago, frd said:

If you believe the notion that this will be a back loaded winter, combined

with a  possibly colder and more active November leads me to think this March will have higher odds of snow and cold. With the exception of last March,  we have trended to winters lasting longer, and starting later in this decade.

.................

Granted October 2009  was much colder , then November turned warmer in time 

 

 

Yeah I never count March out -- it can be a lot of fun sometimes if things line up just right. In a couple of the "bad" years, our best storm of the season was mid or late-March. 

It will be interesting to see if there's any similarity to 2009 this time around, one obvious difference is the Oct cold in 2009 seemed much more widespread and this year it was cold west/warm east. 

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18 hours ago, frd said:

Not to jinx us, but love seeing the orientation of the PV combined with the location and from there tons of snow will be put down just to our NW and a breeding ground for some very cold air delivery, eventually a direct discharge. 

We did not have this last year. Also, it seems the atmosphere, at least so far, is conducive to showing ( and delivering ) a good pattern. 

Hopefully any turn to the milder later in November is just a reload, or a brief moderation.  Still like a normal December with snowfall opportunities.  

 

Also I like seeing as much early cold as we can over the GL region.....the quicker we can get the lakes cooled down and partially frozen, the less moderating effect they have on the cold shots coming down from Canada. Since so many of our events have at least a portion of the subforum flirting with the freezing line, every degree matters.

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8 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely a signal on the Gefs for possible winter weather  around 150 hrs or so . Probably favors just to the north in Pa and decent elevation as depicted but hey ...its early most of us would be satisfied seeing white rain or flurries 

f156.gif

I like the look on the euro too

 

image.thumb.png.36e5e0300085369518d3308c9185c060.png

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Comparing to 0z ..its stronger and quicker with the cold push and a bit stronger with the sw vort coming out the Baja . If we can time things up a bit better in future runs . Verbatim its flakes for northern folks as u mentioned :D

 

 

Fun to look at, but climo is pretty hostile in early November for anything legit. That being said, if the guidance is correct with these extreme h5 looks, it's not impossible that some parts of our region could see some frozen. Much more likely for N PA into central and N NE.

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Fun to look at, but climo is pretty hostile in early November for anything legit. That being said, if the guidance is correct with these extreme h5 looks, it's not impossible that some parts of our region could see some frozen. Much more likely for N PA into central and N NE.
Eps favors those climo regions you mentioned. That's OK tho.. Just keep sending down the cold and laying down the snow.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

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49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

O Mid-Atlantic Weenies, heed the warning of your thy collector of Winter Weenie Souls:

Proceed with caution. 

D7: Euphoria as the Euro reels you in.
giphy.gif

 

D6: On the train to the mountaintop as the King doubles down.

giphy.gif


D5: Still going strong. Euro hasn’t budged. Picking up speed to paradise!

giphy.gif


D4: Euro stepped back but we have plenty of time to bring it back. Unconcerned.

giphy.gif
 

D3: It begins.

giphy.gif

 

D2:Time is running out and you can’t escape. 
giphy.gif
 

D1: Preparing for the end.

giphy.gif

D0: The end.

giphy.gif
shVZIs4.jpg

You are a crazy man lol

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