yoda Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We’ll see what the euro throws out at 12z, but some stark differences between euro and gfs starting this weekend. Euro going cutoff low happy? Gfs too progressive? Hard to say when both models are maybe playing into their biases. Gfs solution looks way more fun, so I’m rooting for it. Especially when its tossing out 2-3" of rain pretty much area wide through 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Looks like 12z EURO is keeping the cutoff low idea through 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Looks like 12z EURO is keeping the cutoff low idea through 168 It is, but a bit more progressive than previously. Ggem looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Well, gfs not folding yet as of 18z for the weekend and next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 15 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Well, gfs not folding yet as of 18z for the weekend and next week. How’s it all look now? Sorry, comp broken and phone super slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 A little comparison focusing on HDD from BAMWX GWHDD verifications for the 8-14 day lead in the GEFS and EPS so far. The EPS has a glaring warm bias with its longer lead HDD forecasts https://mobile.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1186645988397735936 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Northern and central North America gain significant snow cover in the next 10 days with this pattern. Likewise Siberia/Eurasia snow cover exploding and the area below 60 N looks to do well. DT's video shows a powerful upper low end of the month there, should end up strong . Sure looks active for us as well. Active is good . And yeah, more snow in Denver for my daughter. Some have all the luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 12z GFS looks very nice starting next Wednesday wrt temps as the CF comes though on the 30th... 31st and Nov 1st highs are in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area with lows in the 20s and 30s each night... mid 50s to near 60 from the 2nd to the 4th for highs... then back to the upper 40s for the 5th to the 7th for high temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Euro is way slower and torchy, GGEM in the middle. Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro is way slower and torchy, GGEM in the middle. Shocker. Torchy? So 90s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Torchy? So 90s? Probably a couple days with +10-15F departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Low 70s in early November is fine. I have adjusted to the new normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 38 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Low 70s in early November is fine. I have adjusted to the new normal. I’m totally fine with it amidst equally chilly BN departures. Except we have permanent +5F departures basically now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m totally fine with it amidst equally chilly BN departures. Except we have permanent +5F departures basically now. That is truly the new normal. +3 to +5 month after month. If DJF ends up + 1 or 2, it's a major win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That is truly the new normal. +3 to +5 month after month. If DJF ends up + 1 or 2, it's a major win. Less warm , is the new cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Well, someone is wrong here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: Well, someone is wrong here Luckily no one really cares given the time of the year, but I will go out on a limb and say the GFS will 'trend' towards the Euro idea. The pattern is active and progressive, so big discrepancies at range are not uncommon when comparing op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Luckily no one really cares given the time of the year, but I will go out on a limb and say the GFS will 'trend' towards the Euro idea. The pattern is active and progressive, so big discrepancies at range are not uncommon when comparing op runs. True, but as a follow up. The GFS is falling out currently. Both models were challenged though by the huge amplifications in the Pac jet with the recent Typhoons. Seems the GFS always trends towards the Euro, however recent verification scores point out the GEFS doing better. And of course no model is perfect, and a blend seems to be a smart move to utilize each model's inherent strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Euro and GGEM slower yet again to drag the front through late next week. Now both send things out in 2 pieces. Gfs was still catching up their old solution. Which also means the cold air is more and more modified by the time it gets here. All 3 still indicate some reinforcing cold shots aimed a bit closer to us after in early Novie, but damn the SE ridge just never wants to die this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Euro and GGEM slower yet again to drag the front through late next week. Now both send things out in 2 pieces. Gfs was still catching up their old solution. Which also means the cold air is more and more modified by the time it gets here. All 3 still indicate some reinforcing cold shots aimed a bit closer to us after in early Novie, but damn the SE ridge just never wants to die this year. Yeah remember a week or so ago when all 3 global ensemble means were advertising that epic pattern for the end of October? We really need to stop falling for that shiit lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah remember a week or so ago when all 3 global ensemble means were advertising that epic pattern for the end of October? We really need to stop falling for that shiit lol. Going to get ugly if this gfs cold bias leads to constant D8+ teasing like I’m afraid it will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 Looks like plenty of east coast ridging and mild temps for the foreseeable future. Nothing too extreme but several degrees above average(nothing new). Cool shot still showing up on the means for early November- probably seasonal temps or maybe slightly below for a few days. Beyond that- more ridging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 First widespread snow event of the year (for NOVA anyway) shows up on 6z GFS for around 11/7. Jersey gets slammed and points north and northeast. Let the tracking begin! Only 12 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 51 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like plenty of east coast ridging and mild temps for the foreseeable future. Nothing too extreme but several degrees above average(nothing new). Cool shot still showing up on the means for early November- probably seasonal temps or maybe slightly below for a few days. Beyond that- more ridging? Yeah, first week probably ends on the slightly cool side. I think first freeze for the non-DCA sights is a good bet. But after, probably goes mild again if MJO keeps progressing and PV keeps consolidating. This next week is a sneaky torch. This mornings low is already +15F from normal lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 All 3 ensemble systems put a ridge bridge across the Pole around D7 and through the end of their runs. That should help keep beating on the strat vortex and keep us BN in early Novie. Certainly seems a trend in recent years to have a warm early fall, chilly November, then torcherific December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: All 3 ensemble systems put a ridge bridge across the Pole around D7 and through the end of their runs. That should help keep beating on the strat vortex and keep us BN in early Novie. Certainly seems a trend in recent years to have a warm early fall, chilly November, then torcherific December. Yup. Nice and chilly leading into Thanksgiving then all the sudden this pig ridge sets up and everyone is complaining to turn on the AC. You can set your watch to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Maybe our first shot of winter as we approach mid November. Perfect timing....EPS agrees with the cross polar flow. Would think this look grows colder in time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Certainly a very cold look for next weekend on the ensembles. I’d wait until this weekend before being comfortable with how cold that ends up. Colder looks in the long range tend to modify with time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 On 10/28/2019 at 1:56 PM, BristowWx said: Yup. Nice and chilly leading into Thanksgiving then all the sudden this pig ridge sets up and everyone is complaining to turn on the AC. You can set your watch to it. Yeah I seem to remember last year's advertised long range cold didn't verify very often, if I'm not mistaken. Be nice to see long range trends be somewhat better this year. Save a lot of angst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Certainly a very cold look for next weekend on the ensembles. I’d wait until this weekend before being comfortable with how cold that ends up. Colder looks in the long range tend to modify with time. Would it be reasonable to say that, more often than not, most LR modeled extremes (hot, cold, HL blocking, etc) tend to moderate somewhat as we get closer in time? That has been my general experience. I figure it has something to do with compounding of modeled errors out in time creating a tendency to overdo things a bit..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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