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October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range


mattie g
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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We’ll see what the euro throws out at 12z, but some stark differences between euro and gfs starting this weekend. Euro going cutoff low happy? Gfs too progressive? Hard to say when both models are maybe playing into their biases. Gfs solution looks way more fun, so I’m rooting for it. 

Especially when its tossing out 2-3" of rain pretty much area wide through 144

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Northern and central  North America  gain significant snow cover in the next 10 days with this pattern. Likewise Siberia/Eurasia snow cover exploding and the area below 60 N looks to do well.  DT's video shows a powerful upper low end of the month there, should end up strong .    

 

Sure looks active for us as well. Active is good . 

And yeah, more snow in Denver for my daughter. Some have all the luck! 

 

 

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12z GFS looks very nice starting next Wednesday wrt temps as the CF comes though on the 30th... 31st and Nov 1st highs are in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area with lows in the 20s and 30s each night... mid 50s to near 60 from the 2nd to the 4th for highs... then back to the upper 40s for the 5th to the 7th for high temps

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1 minute ago, frd said:

Well, someone is wrong here 

 

Luckily no one really cares given the time of the year, but I will go out on a limb and say the GFS will 'trend' towards the Euro idea.

The pattern is active and progressive, so big discrepancies at range are not uncommon when comparing op runs.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Luckily no one really cares given the time of the year, but I will go out on a limb and say the GFS will 'trend' towards the Euro idea.

The pattern is active and progressive, so big discrepancies at range are not uncommon when comparing op runs.

True, but as a follow up.

The GFS is falling out currently. Both models were challenged though by the huge amplifications in the Pac jet with the recent Typhoons. 

Seems the GFS always trends towards the Euro, however recent verification scores point out  the GEFS doing better.  

And of course no model is perfect,  and a blend seems to be a smart move to utilize each model's inherent strength.   

 

 

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Euro and GGEM slower yet again to drag the front through late next week. Now both send things out in 2 pieces. Gfs was still catching up their old solution. Which also means the cold  air is more and more modified by the time it gets here.  All 3 still indicate some reinforcing cold shots aimed a bit closer to us after in early Novie, but damn the SE ridge just never wants to die this year.

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro and GGEM slower yet again to drag the front through late next week. Now both send things out in 2 pieces. Gfs was still catching up their old solution. Which also means the cold  air is more and more modified by the time it gets here.  All 3 still indicate some reinforcing cold shots aimed a bit closer to us after in early Novie, but damn the SE ridge just never wants to die this year.

Yeah remember a week or so ago when all 3 global ensemble means were advertising that epic pattern for the end of October? We really need to stop falling for that shiit lol.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah remember a week or so ago when all 3 global ensemble means were advertising that epic pattern for the end of October? We really need to stop falling for that shiit lol.

Going to get ugly if this gfs cold bias leads to constant D8+ teasing like I’m afraid it will.

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Looks like plenty of east coast ridging and mild temps for the foreseeable future. Nothing too extreme but several degrees above average(nothing new). Cool shot still showing up on the means for early November- probably seasonal temps or maybe slightly below for a few days. Beyond that- more ridging?

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51 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like plenty of east coast ridging and mild temps for the foreseeable future. Nothing too extreme but several degrees above average(nothing new). Cool shot still showing up on the means for early November- probably seasonal temps or maybe slightly below for a few days. Beyond that- more ridging?

Yeah, first week probably ends on the slightly cool side. I think first freeze for the non-DCA sights is a good bet. But after, probably goes mild again if MJO keeps progressing and PV keeps consolidating. This next week is a sneaky torch. This mornings low is already +15F from normal lows.

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All 3 ensemble systems put a ridge bridge across the Pole around D7 and through the end of their runs. That should help keep beating on the strat vortex and keep us BN in early Novie. Certainly seems a trend in recent years to have a warm early fall, chilly November, then torcherific December. 

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

All 3 ensemble systems put a ridge bridge across the Pole around D7 and through the end of their runs. That should help keep beating on the strat vortex and keep us BN in early Novie. Certainly seems a trend in recent years to have a warm early fall, chilly November, then torcherific December. 

Yup.  Nice and chilly leading into Thanksgiving then all the sudden this pig ridge sets up and everyone is complaining to turn on the AC.  You can set your watch to it. 

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On 10/28/2019 at 1:56 PM, BristowWx said:

Yup.  Nice and chilly leading into Thanksgiving then all the sudden this pig ridge sets up and everyone is complaining to turn on the AC.  You can set your watch to it. 

Yeah I seem to remember last year's advertised long range cold didn't verify very often, if I'm not mistaken. Be nice to see long range trends be somewhat better this year. Save a lot of angst.

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Certainly a very cold look for next weekend on the ensembles. I’d wait until this weekend before being comfortable with how cold that ends up. Colder looks in the long range tend to modify with time.

Would it be reasonable to say that, more often than not, most LR modeled extremes (hot, cold, HL blocking, etc) tend to moderate somewhat as we get closer in time? That has been my general experience. I figure it has something to do with compounding of modeled errors out in time creating a tendency to overdo things a bit.....

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