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October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range


mattie g
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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Op Euro doesn’t look nearly as warm on Turkey day as the GFS.  Just something I noticed compared to even 0z.  But I am looking at crappy h5 plots on TT

Euro has highs near 50/low 50s. Seasonal. Gfs is near 60. GGEM is mid 40s. GEFS close to euro.

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro has highs near 50/low 50s. Seasonal. Gfs is near 60. GGEM is mid 40s. GEFS close to euro.

Thanks for the confirmation.  That works ok.  I was thinking incoming torch simply because if that cutter storm winds up..well you know the rest. But maybe we avoid it...still 8 days..wont get married to any solution 

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19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Thanks for the confirmation.  That works ok.  I was thinking incoming torch simply because if that cutter storm winds up..well you know the rest. But maybe we avoid it...still 8 days..wont get married to any solution 

All depends on timing of the frontal passage. We will torch ahead of that front it seems, although maybe just for 12-24 hours. Air behind the front looks seasonal, not particularly cold.

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29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Haven't been able to look at much guidance but looks like the weekend storm is still a possibility . Euro runs a primary up through WV and there looks like a redevelopment off Va. Beach . If we can get any primary from reaching that far north maybe we could get a small wintery event.  Saturday appears pretty chilly leading in then the mid and upper level temps get eroded until the coastal takes over leaving us with possibly some mini coma head spits of qpf per Euro.  Parts of Pa gets some minor accumulation verbatim.  Definitely worth tracking . A couple  variables are  how far south does the Fri morning FP get and timing of  the Saturday system moving in  .  But ultimately I'm just keying in on the track for now 

FWIW, on EURO at 12z, storm depicted on ky/tn border today compared to mid ky yesterday!

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

@Wonderdog

Just Comparing to the 0z run ...today at h5 is more neutral with the trough orientation vs 0z which was more positive.  Primary definitely makes it further north this run and it's an overall stronger system as it hits the coast . Would love for that sw ejecting energy to come a bit further se before trying to turn the corner but then it could also slide off exit stage right .

That system in January would most likely be a winter storm of some sort.

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27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

@Wonderdog

Just Comparing to the 0z run ...today at h5 is more neutral with the trough orientation vs 0z which was more positive.  Primary definitely makes it further north this run and it's an overall stronger system as it hits the coast . Would love for that sw ejecting energy to come a bit further se before trying to turn the corner but then it could also slide off exit stage right .

Unless I'm reading it incorrectly, it's 12 hours later. Or maybe earlier. :)

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20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 

P002 +  Control have pretty good similarities with Dec 10 th 1992 . 92 dug in a bit deeper. It's obviously a couple weeks earlier but pretty cool stuff . I've memorized alot of h5 setups in the Kocin books and thought a few members looked familiar . 92' was a mauling in Western Md and roughly 4-8 " around here . What a wicked setup in 92 . 

18z Gefs 

Hr 204

f204.gif

Wait a minute...that’s T-day...ok we’ll take it.  Lots more runs to go

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10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Interesting discrepancy between the new GFS and the GEFS for the weekend storm. GEFS emphatically says it goes under us while GFD cuts it west. Wonder how the new dynamical core is playing here.

Wow. Never seen it like that before. Just about all of the members that I can see at PSU take it under to the coast. 

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15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Just looking at the 850 anomaly for T-day looks solidly chilly based on the GEFS...at 198hrs...that is my short term focus right now.  h5 looks so interesting to me also at 198hrs yet the surface is not. 

Strong agreement for a pretty strong storm cutting west leading into Turkey day. Right now it looks like the front will clear just before or on Thanksgiving. Delay that a little and the holiday could be really warm. Personally, I don't care one way or the other. If it's warm then fine and if it's cold then better. We'll have a clear view of early Dec by then and that's 100% of my focus.

I'm warming up to the idea of a broad conus trough with enough blocking help to make it interesting. GFS/GEFS are going hog wild with a nasty -EPO ridge popping and a lot of ens members are showing cold to very cold temps in the conus stretching from the intermountain west to the east coast.  GEFS has nearly unanimous agreement for a pretty stout -NAO building D5+. 

I'm impressed with how this month is shaking out and agree with PSU about how there seems to be some persistence building with features that have been sorely missing for quite a few years now. Majority of our snow events happen with a flawed pattern. Early Dec doesn't look like a perfect pattern or anything but so far it sure looks like one that can work out to me. 

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31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Strong agreement for a pretty strong storm cutting west leading into Turkey day. Right now it looks like the front will clear just before or on Thanksgiving. Delay that a little and the holiday could be really warm. Personally, I don't care one way or the other. If it's warm then fine and if it's cold then better. We'll have a clear view of early Dec by then and that's 100% of my focus.

I'm warming up to the idea of a broad conus trough with enough blocking help to make it interesting. GFS/GEFS are going hog wild with a nasty -EPO ridge popping and a lot of ens members are showing cold to very cold temps in the conus stretching from the intermountain west to the east coast.  GEFS has nearly unanimous agreement for a pretty stout -NAO building D5+. 

I'm impressed with how this month is shaking out and agree with PSU about how there seems to be some persistence building with features that have been sorely missing for quite a few years now. Majority of our snow events happen with a flawed pattern. Early Dec doesn't look like a perfect pattern or anything but so far it sure looks like one that can work out to me. 

This is an example of a look that probably won’t work in November but repeat this in winter with a more suppressed jet and broader wavelengths and that block/50/50 combo to our north could bully the mediocre pacific pattern in our favor. It would be difficult for anything to cut in that look mid winter. 

818CECB7-62EA-4758-8CE3-FE7B606C403B.thumb.png.a03b1b10b433c50d9ac6464340dfea74.png

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Strong agreement for a pretty strong storm cutting west leading into Turkey day. Right now it looks like the front will clear just before or on Thanksgiving. Delay that a little and the holiday could be really warm. Personally, I don't care one way or the other. If it's warm then fine and if it's cold then better. We'll have a clear view of early Dec by then and that's 100% of my focus.

I'm warming up to the idea of a broad conus trough with enough blocking help to make it interesting. GFS/GEFS are going hog wild with a nasty -EPO ridge popping and a lot of ens members are showing cold to very cold temps in the conus stretching from the intermountain west to the east coast.  GEFS has nearly unanimous agreement for a pretty stout -NAO building D5+. 

I'm impressed with how this month is shaking out and agree with PSU about how there seems to be some persistence building with features that have been sorely missing for quite a few years now. Majority of our snow events happen with a flawed pattern. Early Dec doesn't look like a perfect pattern or anything but so far it sure looks like one that can work out to me. 

Is the SOI crashing during the last week and is that a precursor to a moderate or strong  -NAO?

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29 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Is the SOI crashing during the last week and is that a precursor to a moderate or strong  -NAO?

I generally don't pay much attention to the SOI honestly. However, very unlikely for there to be a direct connect to the NAO. The only reliable precursor I know of for predicting a -NAO in the future is to have one in the present. 

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6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like a decent soaker incoming after some light rain today.. Maybe an inch+. Been dry lately so no complaints other than I have a lot of outside stuff to get done.

Honestly I'm pretty optimistic seeing the wet coming in with some consistency. I personally believe getting that first then have cold come works best.

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