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October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range


mattie g
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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea he skews warm

Right now ( I mean this past decade) reality is skewing warm.  I think that frustrates most people on this forum, which makes us quick to lash out.  I know I constantly have to fight against a natural desire to pay attention when someone predicts "COLD COLD", but dismiss those saying "WARM, WARM" as idiots.

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Right now ( I mean this past decade) reality is skewing warm.  I think that frustrates most people on this forum, which makes us quick to lash out.  I know I constantly have to fight against a natural desire to pay attention when someone predicts "COLD COLD", but dismiss those saying "WARM, WARM" as idiots.

I won’t name names because there is nothing wrong with this, but some of the seasonal forecasters with the higher scores tend to go chalk and predict what climo says is likely most of the time. Fact is our current climo says we have a below avg snow winter 65-70% of the time.  Take non nino years (yea mod nino is the winner but even weak and strong ones up the chances of a + climo year some) and the chances are like 90% we go below climo.  In the last 25 non nino winters going back to 1984...only 2 have been +climo. 1996 and 2014. 

So basically if you predicted above avg snow every nino and below to avg every other winter you will have had a 84% verification score in the last 37 years.  I could do that. Anyone could do that. But 1996 and 2014 did happen. And climo runs in cycles and you never know when it will shift. So just going climo every year you will miss the anomalies. It’s also no fun and I am in this for run. If my job depended on it I probably would go climo and pimp my great success rate.  

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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I won’t name names because there is nothing wrong with this, but some of the seasonal forecasters with the higher scores tend to go chalk and predict what climo says is likely most of the time. Fact is our current climo says we have a below avg snow winter 65-70% of the time.  Take non nino years (yea mod nino is the winner but even weak and strong ones up the chances of a + climo year some) and the chances are like 90% we go below climo.  In the last 25 non nino winters going back to 1984...only 2 have been +climo. 1996 and 2014. 

So basically if you predicted above avg snow every nino and below to avg every other winter you will have had a 84% verification score in the last 37 years.  I could do that. Anyone could do that. But 1996 and 2014 did happen. And climo runs in cycles and you never know when it will shift. So just going climo every year you will miss the anomalies. It’s also no fun and I am in this for run. If my job depended on it I probably would go climo and pimp my great success rate.  

This sounds like textbook advertisement for setting one's expectations based on the median instead of the mean.

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5 hours ago, cbmclean said:

This sounds like textbook advertisement for setting one's expectations based on the median instead of the mean.

I’ve lead that crusade plenty of times during years where the whining about what is really just a typical winter is getting out of hand. But most of the culprits of that whining don’t want to hear it. Probably because they aren’t happy with what a “typical” winter here is (admittedly our median kinda sucks) and that want to be able to whine and complain with righteous indignation 70% of the time as if the universe spit in their eye. 

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Boy this guy Webb is really something else. He is posting at the 33 forum at 3:30 am about the 00z GEFS/EPS being warmer to support his ideas which may or may not be correct but he just has this inherent need to be right and prove everyone else who doesn't support his ideas is wrong. He even seems to get a bit argumentative at times. I mean wow.

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6z GEFS looks good thru 240 still imo given calendar date. PAC looks to want to reload towards the end of that period. NAO ridging is evident both surface and 500mb with some hp ridging beginning to develop late in that period N of Alaska. Whether right or wrong looks like avg mid/late Nov weather to me at worst thru 240 with a balance of positives in both the Atl and Pac sides. If you want to sneak peek past that period which isnt usually the wisest thing, the 5-day averages on the GEFS increase AO ridging, still have signs of ridging in the NAO, squash the SE ridge that briefly flexed, and has BN 2m temps for the area. While some negatives appear briefly the general themes we have seen look to continue. I can certainly see a reload in the pattern for a short period but I also do not see anything earth shattering that says to cancel winter while it is still late autumn. If someone pressed me and said find something that could be of concern I would say we need to see how the ridge N of Hawaii plays out and what effect it might have on LP near the Aleutians. On the Atl side I would say lets see if the hint of a SE ridge links up as a full/mid lat ridge (like early Oct when we had record heat as the pattern reloaded) and/or how transient/stubborn that ridge becomes. Steady as she goes next 10 days.

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Since we are jumping on every model run, let’s jump on the gfs for Saturday 

Not just Sat./Sun but Thanksgiving and Dec 3rd. What we see,  if I may, is the normal progression of autumn as it approaches winter. Gradually seeing the colder air get closer to the MA at the same time precipitation does. Pattern to me is favorable. Too far out for details on what eventually happens. I like what I see, however. 

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4 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

Not just Sat./Sun but Thanksgiving and Dec 3rd. What we see,  if I may, is the normal progression of autumn as it approaches winter. Gradually seeing the colder air get closer to the MA at the same time precipitation does. Pattern to me is favorable. Too far out for details on what eventually happens. I like what I see, however. 

after the mild start in september, it's been a pretty classic start to fall/winter with a pretty dramatic turnaround in temps after a very warm summer.  looks like this pattern is locked in for now.  i see some mild temps towards the end of the week, but that's average for this time of year.

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

after the mild start in september, it's been a pretty classic start to fall/winter with a pretty dramatic turnaround in temps after a very warm summer.  looks like this pattern is locked in for now.  i see some mild temps towards the end of the week, but that's average for this time of year.

I can also imagine a scenario where a brief but potent warm temp day before thksgvng....just based on what is either a strong cold front or developing rainstorm...if that comes to fruition.  I have now seen it on CMC and GFS op runs...but who knows.  still 10 days out

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10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I can also imagine a scenario where a brief but potent warm temp day before thksgvng....just based on what is either a strong cold front or developing rainstorm...if that comes to fruition.  I have now seen it on CMC and GFS op runs...but who knows.  still 10 days out

i still think it's an accomplishment getting to this point after a very prolonged warm/wet pattern.  last winter was only saved by the shear volume of precip events, but it was predominantly mild and summer ended up being above normal.  spring was amazing though.

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Just now, 87storms said:

i still think it's an accomplishment getting to this point after a very prolonged warm/wet pattern.  last winter was only saved by the shear volume of precip events, but it was predominantly mild and summer ended up being epic.  spring was amazing though.

Agree on all points.  Back in October I thought first freeze wouldn't be until December especially at DCA and couldn't imagine what a cold day would feel like again. 

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12z GEFS is pretty blah from a sensible weather POV, but has some improving action over the pole in the 2nd half of the run. Around D8 or so the 1000mb AO goes negative and then increasingly negative after into December. At 500mb it’s more neutral after D8 and signs the PV May rotate back to our hemisphere.

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12 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Would probably be dropping/steady temps through the day on Thanksgiving which would be nice if it actually happened.  

Yes because I imagine a warm Wednesday leading into it under that scenario until the front passes...windy too...but we are still 9 days out so not sold on any idea just yet

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