CAPE Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 If the 12z EPS is correct, the last week of October will feature EC/WA ridge with high temps of 60 to 70. The previously advertised cold snap has disintegrated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 No more cold snap. Could it switch back to the old look as quickly as it switched away? Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: If the 12z EPS is correct, the last week of October will feature EC/WA ridge with high temps of 60 to 70. The previously advertised cold snap has disintegrated. What was the last run to feature the cold snap? I went back and looked through a few and didn’t see anything that poked out to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: What was the last run to feature the cold snap? I went back and looked through a few and didn’t see anything that poked out to me. 2-3 days ago? Look at some of the panels posted in this thread a page or so back. EPS was never as bullish as the GEFS, but it had a cold look several runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: If the 12z EPS is correct, the last week of October will feature EC/WA ridge with high temps of 60 to 70. The previously advertised cold snap has disintegrated. Simply looking at the NAO and the AO you think otherwise to a degree. But man, that PNA loves to be negative, we can not shake that. Plus, we can not build any West Coast ridging. Of course the model error may have been those typhoons, however, many mets mid week already called for a late month cold snap. Goes to show you how difficult it is to predict the pattern. Can you imagine putting out a seasonal forecast ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 10 hours ago, frd said: Simply looking at the NAO and the AO you think otherwise to a degree. But man, that PNA loves to be negative, we can not shake that. Plus, we can not build any West Coast ridging. Of course the model error may have been those typhoons, however, many mets mid week already called for a late month cold snap. Goes to show you how difficult it is to predict the pattern. Can you imagine putting out a seasonal forecast ? I know there isn't necessarily a correlation, but after the persistent false advertisement by the guidance last winter in the LR (wrt epic patterns and esp blocking) I am interested to see what the reality is for this period in which all the major globals were depicting a pattern featuring significant HL blocking and anomalous cold for the east. Yes it seems there was some error on the Pacific side compared to what was projected by models several days ago, impacting the placement and strength of the NE Pac ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Definitely frustrating seeing that trough end up in the west. There are some positives with the pattern that opens up Nov, imo. PSU brought this up in an earlier post iirc....I will be curious if we do get periods of HLB in the NAO region if the winter wavelength produces a situation of cold highs pushing/ overrunning. Even with a neutral/-PNA. Not the pattern that was advertised a few days ago but not a total loss either. I mean, when did we see this kind of positive make it inside of D5 last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 21, 2019 Author Share Posted October 21, 2019 All the discussion about a cold snap disappearing, yet here we are, a good 8-10 days out from when the chill was looking to begin. Last I heard, models can be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 21 minutes ago, mattie g said: All the discussion about a cold snap disappearing, yet here we are, a good 8-10 days out from when the chill was looking to begin. Last I heard, models can be wrong. The trend is not your friend. or.. We have seen this many times before. It is preseason, and I honestly dgaf if it is 70 the last week of October lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The trend is not your friend. or.. We have seen this many times before. It is preseason, and I honestly dgaf if it is 70 the last week of October lol. All cold prior to December 5 th is useless anyways ...... bring the hammer after December 5 th and put some Bing Crosby on the airwaves.... I would enjoy a warmer day or two in later November anyways to put the lights on the trees, so pretty to look at but so tedious to do. Takes 1/20 th of the time to undo those wrap-arounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 55 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Definitely frustrating seeing that trough end up in the west. There are some positives with the pattern that opens up Nov, imo. PSU brought this up in an earlier post iirc....I will be curious if we do get periods of HLB in the NAO region if the winter wavelength produces a situation of cold highs pushing/ overrunning. Even with a neutral/-PNA. Not the pattern that was advertised a few days ago but not a total loss either. I mean, when did we see this kind of positive make it inside of D5 last year? A great pattern for those North of us in about 30 to 45 days, somewhat a gradient pattern for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 11 minutes ago, frd said: A great pattern for those North of us in about 30 to 45 days, somewhat a gradient pattern for them. Agreed. That block placement isn't ideal for the MA. I guess my point was that it looks like red paint will actually verify in that region instead of getting pushed/fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 30 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Agreed. That block placement isn't ideal for the MA. I guess my point was that it looks like red paint will actually verify in that region instead of getting pushed/fading. That alone will be good to see, We have had pretty persistent NA blocking during the warm months, so if this look verifies, might be a good sign as we go forward. Now the lack of cooperation on the Pacific side is another story. Lots can change there as we move into early winter, but I don't want to see that big azz NE Pac ridge become a fixture in the location the ensembles currently have it as we head into Nov. That would be a problem for the lowlands of the MA more times than not even in mid winter. Not a fan of SE ridge and gradient patterns for my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Looks like we get a SE Ridge flexin pattern. The new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs says Parka jackets on Halloween How has the GFS been performing this year? Sorry, I’ve been off forums for a year or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs says Parka jackets on Halloween Almost freezes at DCA... IAD is 27... RIC reach 32... BWI 33 Cold (highs in the 40s) for a few days... then back to 65-70 degrees in the first week of November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Actually Gefs and Eps both look slightly below avg after the 29th or so for several days .Remember that Halloween years ago it was like 80.... and my girls were little then in full costume and they ripped them off because they were sweating to death lol. They finished trick or treatin in there short sleeves 12z EURO looks like it... ugh... 850 hPa temperature anomaly on Days 9 and 10 (October 30th and 31st) are +8 to +12, respectively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 The trend is not your friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 I don’t get all the lamenting the pattern coming up. I only see the SE ridge truly flex for 48-72 hours as the cold initially dumps west. But after that I see a broad trough with a suppressed SE ridge and a pattern we would likely be on the right side of the gradient in Winter with. I like the look. Now that is totally dependent on the NAO blocking being legit but right now it looks it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t get all the lamenting the pattern coming up. I only see the SE ridge truly flex for 48-72 hours as the cold initially dumps west. But after that I see a broad trough with a suppressed SE ridge and a pattern we would likely be on the right side of the gradient in Winter with. I like the look. Now that is totally dependent on the NAO blocking being legit but right now it looks it. Lets see if that look holds, or gets pushed back or ends up with the trough reloading in the west. The "lamenting" is simply pointing out that the models have backed way off on the previously advertised 'favorable' pattern for the last week of this month. Not a big deal because it's not like it was gonna snow or anything. lol. It's preseason, and I am specifically interested in seeing if the -NAO actually does materialize in real time, or if it's just more false advertising on the LR guidance. Also screw those gradient patterns with a persistent SE ridge. If that becomes the mean pattern for winter, that's a winner for places further north the majority of the time. Depending on legit NA blocking is a fool's errand until proven otherwise at this point. You may do ok at times, but that's generally not a good pattern for coastal areas of the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Lets see if that look holds, or gets pushed back or ends up with the trough reloading in the west. The "lamenting" is simply pointing out that the models have backed way off on the previously advertised 'favorable' pattern for the last week of this month. Not a big deal because it's not like it was gonna snow or anything. lol. It's preseason, and I am specifically interested in seeing if the -NAO actually does materialize in real time, or if it's just more false advertising on the LR guidance. Also screw those gradient patterns with a persistent SE ridge. If that becomes the mean pattern for winter, that's a winner for places further north the majority of the time. Depending on legit NA blocking is a fool's errand until proven otherwise at this point. You may do ok at times, but that's generally not a good pattern for coastal areas of the MA. It depends how suppressed the pattern ends up. That h5 look in Jan or Feb I bet it’s not a bad bet to get a wave under us. Quite a few gradient systems worked in 2014 and 2015. The suppression then was due to a favorable PV location but an NAO block with 50/50 can mirror that same effect and offset a west based epo ridge. But last winter when we saw that same look I remember finding quite a few good results historically from that type pattern. The problem was the NAO part never materialized and so the pacific ridge dominated the pattern. But even with that fact we still got a couple waves to stay under us in February! It wasn’t a total shutout. Just not the epic pattern we wanted. Add in a true NAO block and its a pretty good pattern. Keep in mind many of our snows don’t come with a “perfect” pac/atl combo. That often just least to a huge trough and dry. Often it’s some convoluted combo that works. More recently it’s been a good pacific finding a way so I can see being biased toward that, but historically a good Atlantic offsetting a mediocre pacific is even more likely to produce snow. But I agree 100% with that fact that relying on the NAO is risky and I would prefer a good pacific look that doesn’t require the Atlantic to offset it at all. So yea this isn’t ideal. But it’s too early for me to go overly negative. One thing my research has shown is that every winter is an island. There is almost no pattern or predictability from one season to the next. I won’t let last years frustrations cloud this years potential...YET lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 21, 2019 Author Share Posted October 21, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t get all the lamenting the pattern coming up. I only see the SE ridge truly flex for 48-72 hours as the cold initially dumps west. But after that I see a broad trough with a suppressed SE ridge and a pattern we would likely be on the right side of the gradient in Winter with. I like the look. Now that is totally dependent on the NAO blocking being legit but right now it looks it. You must be new around here... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 06z GEFS maintains the -NAO and relaxes the WAR a bit compared to the #majorfreakingdisaster of yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Many ensembles now bring a slug of rain in here Saturday night into Sunday. Outdoor Halloween party Saturday night so hopefully it skips my yard and right to @nw baltimore wx s or @C.A.P.E.s yard lol 6z GFS had a pretty good soaking for the area. Tents and parkas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 I guess @mattie g can change the tag since it reached 4 pages It would be nice to see some more rain... have each system bring 0.5" to 1.0" each time they come through the area and our drought will be lessened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs pretty progressive with our first real cold push and hard freeze . Now has Tuesday as the transition day . Lots of 40s highs next week . I'm personally rooting for it . Heck yes! And thanks for response re: GFS. Let’s hope for a crisp rest of autumn and seasons in seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: 6z GFS had a pretty good soaking for the area. Tents and parkas! Sounds like @WxUSAF during a cold smoke bomb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 2 hours ago, yoda said: I guess @mattie g can change the tag since it reached 4 pages It would be nice to see some more rain... have each system bring 0.5" to 1.0" each time they come through the area and our drought will be lessened Pleasantly surprised by the relatively quick turnaround in this thread's fortunes. Doesn't hurt that we actually got some rain and that the pattern definitely flipped. That, plus the fact that we're seeing some decently chilly stuff at not terribly long range will certainly get the juices flowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 30 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs pretty progressive with our first real cold push and hard freeze . Now has Tuesday as the transition day . Lots of 40s highs next week . I'm personally rooting for it . We’ll see what the euro throws out at 12z, but some stark differences between euro and gfs starting this weekend. Euro going cutoff low happy? Gfs too progressive? Hard to say when both models are maybe playing into their biases. Gfs solution looks way more fun, so I’m rooting for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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