October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

You can tell he has a level of cockiness to him. But probably lacks experience.

He seems to be a warminsta alarmist. He is quick to tweet and declare gloom and doom when a model run shows a SE ridge, even if it looks transient.

[BristowWx]

Only seeing the Euro TT h5 maps it appears there is a strong cutter on 27 Nov.  sometimes those can be good to shake things up.    

[showmethesnow]

49 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pattern next 10 days on all ens look decent to me with an NAO ridge closing off, broad US trof which yes is slowly repositioning farther west but the broad look works, closed piece of the PV N of the GL. I guess it is after day 10 that has people concerned but I wouldnt lose sleep over it in November.

At this early stage of the season I think it is more important to focus on tendencies (that actually verify and not just model illusions) rather than anything else. And so far I have liked what I have seen. We have seen a tendency of a predominantly -EPO, +WPO. Tendency for a northern based +PNA undercut by a weakness in or off of the SW. Higher heights/blocking in the upper latitudes. Some decent signs of cooperation in the nao domain. Tendency for continual onslaughts to the PV that up the odds for a -ao. There is really a lot to like as we move into winter. Even the ns dump into the sw in the extended, which admittedly gives me nightmares of ghosts past, is more then likely a big nothing burger if you go by tendencies on the models the last month or so. We have already seen two times where the models have advertised a full throttle dump into the SW in the extended only to fairly quickly move away from it.

All in all we aren't in a bad place as we head into winter so it would be kind of silly to be panicking over a real or even imagined pattern relax showing up on the models. 

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Doesn't it seem exceptionally early to be riding the model roller coaster like it's mid winter? I'm still completely undecided on whether or not Dec is going to be a complete disaster shutout pattern or something less hostile. That's all I care about.

Worrying about a 2-3 day warmup in Nov seems over the top even for the MA sub. We'd probably be better off if it never got below normal this month. The second we had lows in the 20s the bar was raised from just getting a freeze out of the way to expecting a sig snow event. Lol

^^^this^^^ About 2-3 weeks early to expect ANY pattern to do a 'lock' for a couple weeks, much less the rest of winter. November's are a transition period, period

[showmethesnow]

29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

He seems to be a warminsta alarmist. He is quick to tweet and declare gloom and doom when a model run shows a SE ridge, even if it looks transient.

We have our share of THOSE people on here. The weenies are better off following those that are more impartial and putting the alarmists,  who conflate everything to serve their purposes, on ignore.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

We have our share of THOSE people on here. The weenies are better off following those that are more impartial and putting the alarmists,  who conflate everything to serve their purposes, on ignore.

Nothing alarming about the 12z EPS, unless you are looking for unseasonably warm weather.

[BristowWx]

15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nothing alarming about the 12z EPS, unless you are looking for unseasonably warm weather.

I’m not looking for unseasonable warmth.  

[BristowWx]

From what I can see from the EPS at h5 it looks like Greenland area looks good with high pressure.  The trough is in the middle of CONUS...that’s at 240.  All I can see

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

From what I can see from the EPS at h5 it looks like Greenland area looks good with high pressure.  The trough is in the middle of CONUS...that’s at 240.  All I can see

Shifts into the east as we move through the extended. Haven't really digested what it shows but nothing is throwing up red flags on a quick glance. 

[Wonderdog]

NWS has 40% chance of rain and snow showers next Saturday night!!!

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Shifts into the east as we move through the extended. Haven't really digested what it shows but nothing is throwing up red flags on a quick glance. 

The final chapter of this winter story has not been written.  Safe travels back from AZ. 

[Rtd208]

That guy Webb is all over the other forum and he is certainly on the warm train.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

That guy Webb is all over the other forum and he is certainly on the warm train.

He thinks 1 run is a trend.

[OSUmetstud]

18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

He thinks 1 run is a trend.

Eric webb? No. He's been posting about a warm signal for like a week on Twitter. He isn't living and dying on one model run. 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Exactly. Seasonal guidance has been rock steady at Dec featuring a mostly to exceptionally bad long wave pattern. If we kick off Dec with a non shutout or even a good winter wx pattern then it's a pretty big win all things considered

Way late to the party but my thoughts are that I’m not getting bent about marginal flaws in long range runs.   The seasonal guidance is crap mostly because of the worst look up top I’ve ever seen all winter. So anything that looks ok in that regard is a win right now imo. We’re still weeks away from legit high probability tracking season anyways so sweating specific flaws now  is silly. 

Now if we start to see a big blue ball settle over the entire arctic circle with nothing but a ring of red around the mid latitudes ala the seasonals then I will begin to edit my expectations. 

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Eric webb? No. He's been posting about a warm signal for like a week on Twitter. He isn't living and dying on one model run. 

Yes but he posted one run of a model as it confirmed his call. 

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but he posted one run of a model as it confirmed his call. 

From what I have seen(and I don't go out of my way to read any of these dudes on twitter) he never wastes any time when it comes to sounding the bells for a "bad" pattern.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

The final chapter of this winter story has not been written.   

Last I checked it was November 17....and still autumn.

[aldie 22]

33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

From what I have seen(and I don't go out of my way to read any of these dudes on twitter) he never wastes any time when it comes to sounding the bells for a "bad" pattern.

Also it appears he's only looking for anything warm. It's plainly obvious and not worth defending 

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Also it appears he's only looking for anything warm. It's plainly obvious and not worth defending 

Yea, when a long lead forecast works out the internet warriors make sure they yell it from the tallest mountain day after day. When they bust they slink away and go radio silent or spend days saying how the  "forecast was correct BUT....". Lol. 

 

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Last I checked it was November 17....and still autumn.

Yes exactly. I hadn’t thought of it from that angle but makes total sense. 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Way late to the party but my thoughts are that I’m not getting bent about marginal flaws in long range runs.   The seasonal guidance is crap mostly because of the worst look up top I’ve ever seen all winter. So anything that looks ok in that regard is a win right now imo. We’re still weeks away from legit high probability tracking season anyways so sweating specific flaws now  is silly. 

Now if we start to see a big blue ball settle over the entire arctic circle with nothing but a ring of red around the mid latitudes ala the seasonals then I will begin to edit my expectations. 

We still pretty much still have no idea how Dec is going to unfold let along met winter. Doesn't matter if it's 80 degress this week or if we get a foot of snow.

Dec will be here soon enough. I just want to have at least 1 decent event in Dec. A simple 3-5" event in Dec. Statistically that would put this year in like the top 20%. Lol. If Dec sucks it will be just like the other 80% of sucky Decs

[Rhino16]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A simple 3-5" event in Dec.

Simple? In 2019? Pfsh!

[osfan24]

Gonna be a long winter if people are getting worked up on November 17.

[OSUmetstud]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Also it appears he's only looking for anything warm. It's plainly obvious and not worth defending 

Okay. But it was plainly clear he didn't make a forecast on one model run. That's all I was saying. 

[dallen7908]

6 Hours later - the torch is gone - Safe until 00 UT

[Bob Chill]

25 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Gonna be a long winter if people are getting worked up on November 17.

 A little digital snow and some mid winter lows got the game started early this year. DCA often doesn't hit freezing until Dec. Lol

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

6 Hours later - the torch is gone - Safe until 00 UT

Did that dude post this with a boom?

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

We still pretty much still have no idea how Dec is going to unfold let along met winter. Doesn't matter if it's 80 degress this week or if we get a foot of snow.

Dec will be here soon enough. I just want to have at least 1 decent event in Dec. A simple 3-5" event in Dec. Statistically that would put this year in like the top 20%. Lol. If Dec sucks it will be just like the other 80% of sucky Decs

With the way the last decade of Decembers have gone (outside of 2009 and 2013 maybe), the goal should be for 1-2 minor accumulating snow events and a monthly departure less than 3F above normal.  And maybe not above 60F within 3 days either side of Xmas.  

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

That guy Webb is all over the other forum and he is certainly on the warm train.

He is getting way too much play both good and bad imo.  Yea he skews warm and maybe his location and frustration is why. That’s a rational conclusion by cape.  And I do think his posting of one gefs run as validation was questionable but I’ve had plenty of dumb posts myself.  But he often makes astute posts. He isn’t a hack imo. But he also busts plenty too. Everyone does. Even the absolute best.  I’m not saying we shouldn’t post things, but sometimes we go off on a tangent over one persons opinion. It’s good to note it and track what knowledgeable people think but I’m not getting too invested in one persons long range crusade. At the same time I’m not spending effort blasting him repeatedly either. Maybe he is right. Maybe not. We will find out.