October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

At the end of the 0z EPS run, the look is a bit 

Lots of blues up top. Who knows how the pattern will roll going forward. A bit of a reshuffle/mild period would not be unexpected or overly concerning. Hopefully it's not a move towards what the weeklies/climate models have been advertising.

Yeah didnt want to bring that up and cause a flood of ppl to the panic room. It isnt horrible we have most of the features we want minus the AO. But as you know the AO is usually an indicator of how wintry out weather will be here so let's just hope it's a relax. I didnt post it but the Strat is really wicked looking with that PV taking a pummeling and a warming signal over Siberia. That should translate down to some blockiness near the N pole in the trop one would think going way forward. That week of Thanksgiving will probably make or break many of the early/mid Dec outlooks depending whether it us a reload or a transition to the weeklies. 

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yeah didnt want to bring that up and cause a flood of ppl to the panic room. It isnt horrible we have most of the features we want minus the AO. But as you know the AO is usually an indicator of how wintry out weather will be here so let's just hope it's a relax. I didnt post it but the Strat is really wicked looking with that PV taking a pummeling and a warming signal over Siberia. That should translate down to some blockiness near the N pole in the trop one would think going way forward. That week of Thanksgiving will probably make or break many of the early/mid Dec outlooks depending whether it us a reload or a transition to the weeklies. 

I am pretty much sticking to monitoring the 7-10 day period on the ensembles. It was just a mention based on you kinda going there in your post. We, nor the guidance, just can't know what's going to happen 15 days from now.

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

That ridge north of HI is a little reminiscent of last last year.  Looks like the GFS and Euro pretty much agree on the progression of the MJO....slowly weakening into the COD after phase 2.  GEFS are a little jumpy in the LR but continue the cold look which agrees with that MJO progression.... Hard to get a good read on what that first week of Dec will feature. I'd lean GEFS just for this reason and the EPS has been playing a little catch up here lately.  It doesnt happen often but sometime the GEFS lead the way....

 

It is what it is. I am not going to engage in hand wringing over LR stuff. We will see how things evolve over the next 10 days, then go from there. For now,  I don't see any major red flags.

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am pretty much sticking to monitoring the 7-10 day period on the ensembles. Just a mention based on you kinda going there in your post. We, nor the guidance, just can't know what's going to happen 15 days from now.

I myself would probably focus on not looking beyond day 5/6 at this time. With the PC rotating onto the other side of the globe the midlatitude flow will have a big say with what we see in the upper latitudes in Canada and the nao domain with Alaska (EPO, WPO) being the exception.  And the midlatitude flow through the CONUS will pretty much be dictated by how the sw energy gets handled roughly 5 to 7 days out. So anything beyond a week out probaby isn't really worth getting excited about as I expect to see lots of fluctuations between models and/or runs. And until we get the PV or at least a piece of it back onto our side of the globe to help force the upper latitudes we are probably looking at a very fluid situation in the mid and long ranges 

 

[frd]

47 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

That ridge north of HI is a little reminiscent of last last year. 

That was a real killer last winter. It increased the Pac jet along with the reaction to pump the SE ridge. 

Also, prevented West coast ridging from holding on for more than a day or two. 

Again, one of the two schools of thought will be a winner soon.   The warmer Decembers, 80 % of the calls, or the 20 % more normal or even slightly below Decembers. 

If the SPV holds on that is a win for Isotherm. If the seasonal models are correct with  a lack of a -NAO and a -AO then BAMMWX better change their tune. 

 Meanwhile maybe Webb will be correct, I mean after all, you can say what you want about December, but, there is no denying most Decembers from 2010 on have been warm.  You have to take into account the new warmer base state. It is typical to have above normal Decembers in a Nino year. 

Taken a step further,  as psu said and others, now-a-days Ninos do not deliver the same weather outcome as they did back in the 1960's.   And yes, we do not currently have a robust Nino but are feeling the effects of typical Nino tropical forcing at times.   

We are coming off an extremely cold first half of November and may need some time to cycle back. Maybe late December is a timeline to look at.  So much uncertainty and many folks did mention this winter would be the most difficult to pin down.    

 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, frd said:

That was a real killer last winter. It increased the Pac jet along with the reaction to pump the SE ridge. 

Also, prevented West coast ridging from holding on for more than a day or two. 

Again, one of the two schools of thought will be a winner soon.   The warmer Decembers, 80 % of the calls, or the 20 % more normal or even slightly below Decembers. 

If the SPV holds on that is a win for Isotherm. If the seasonal models are correct with  a lack of a -NAO and a -AO then BAMMWX better change their tune. 

 Meanwhile maybe Webb will be correct, I mean after all, you can say what you want about December, but, there is no denying most Decembers from 2010 on have been warm.  You have to take into account the new warmer base state. It is typical to have above normal Decembers in a Nino year. 

Taken a step further,  as psu said and others, now-a-days Ninos do not deliver the same weather outcome as they did back in the 1960's.   And yes, we do not currently have a robust Nino but are feeling the effects of typical Nino tropical forcing at times.   

We are coming off an extremely cold first half of November and may need some time to cycle back. Maybe late December is a timeline to look at.  So much uncertainty and many folks did mention this winter would be the most difficult to pin down.    

 

This guy typically leans warm in his statements right?

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I myself would probably focus on not looking beyond day 5/6 at this time. With the PC rotating onto the other side of the globe the midlatitude flow will have a big say with what we see in the upper latitudes in Canada and the nao domain with Alaska (EO, WO) being the exception.  And the midlatitude flow through the CONUS will pretty much be dictated by how the sw energy gets handled roughly 5 to 7 days out. So anything beyond a week out probaby isn't really worth getting excited about as I expect to see lots of fluctuations between models and/or runs. And until we get the PV or at least a piece of it back onto our side of the globe to help force the upper latitudes we are probably looking at a very fluid situation in the mid and long ranges 

 

The 7-10 day thing is just my general monitoring window this winter. As I have said probably too many times now, not a fan of the weeklies etc. If I discuss them it's either a subtle troll post, or something like the other night when I posted a couple panels because Bob requested them.

[frd]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

This guy typically leans warm in his statements right?

Yes, that is correct. Just putting it out there. You have to weigh all opinions. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

This guy typically leans warm in his statements right?

He totally does. I am sure he is a smart dude, but 'hidden' in many of his technical posts you can tell he is a bit of a frustrated snow weenie from the south.

[dallen7908]

I noticed recently that the 500 hPA anomalies from the EPS are based on a 1989-2018 mean.  Aren't the GEFS anomalies based on 1980-2009?  Shouldn't make much difference but perhaps shifting the 30-year period annually would make it less "crazy" to predict a colder than normal season.  

I also like focusing on the 7-10 day period.  It seems like most of our future weather appears then although it doesn't come into focus until the 2.5 to 6.0 day period. Beyond that there are only a few background states where there is any skill at all unless a 52/48 weighted coin helps you. 

The EPS 15-day snow mean for the DC-area has been around 1" the last several days - all in the last week of course.  What is a winter background value? 2-3"? and when do we typically reach it (last week of November)? 

 

[showmethesnow]

Wow. Just massive changes by day 10 on the gefs from just yesterday's 12z. 

Eta: you can see these changes begin day 5/6 and they quickly snowball. 

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Wow. Just massive changes by day 10 on the gefs from just yesterday's 12z. 

Eta: you can see these changes begin day 5/6 and they quickly snowball. 

It could always massively swing back.  Just a couple of blips maybe.

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Wow. Just massive changes by day 10 on the gefs from just yesterday's 12z. 

Eta: you can see these changes begin day 5/6 and they quickly snowball. 

Yeah it changed quite a bit from 12z yesterday to 0z, then 6z went all in on a west based block. The big EPO ridge idea is more modest now too. Gotta like that look in the AO/NAO space towards the end though. 

[CAPE]

Am I missing something? Are we talking today's 12z GEFS? I haven't seen it. 

6z run looked good to me. 

[JakkelWx]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Am I missing something? Are we talking today's 12z GEFS? I haven't seen it. 

6z run looked good to me. 

 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

 

This fella seems to be enjoying this way too much.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

This fella seems to be enjoying this way too much.  

He is annoying. It's one damn run lol. And actually I am not hating it.

[Bob Chill]

All the ens are doing is finally agreeing on the timing of a trough in the west and subsequent height rises in the east. Normal fall weather... The progression has been hinted at with both ops and ens for days with the main disagreement being timing. That's being resolved now. 

The only thing I didn't like seeing is the AK trough/vortex on the 0z eps d10-15. It's the typical feature that can screw up blocking (think 12-13). It's mid November though. Lol. Did people think the current cold pattern was going to lock and load for 100+ days straight?

It's almost 100% certain Dec will feature a warm spell. Why? Because it happens almost 100% of the time. The big question is will a shutout pattern show up or not in Dec? I'll wait until I finish my pumpkin and apple pie before deciding that

[CAPE]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

All the ens are doing is finally agreeing on the timing of a trough in the west and subsequent height rises in the east. Normal fall weather... The progression has been hinted at with both ops and ens for days with the main disagreement being timing. That's being resolved now. 

The only thing I didn't like seeing is the AK trough/vortex on the 0z eps d10-15. It's the typical feature that can screw up blocking (think 12-13). It's mid November though. Lol. Did people think the current cold pattern was going to lock and load for 100+ days straight?

It's almost 100% certain Dec will feature a warm spell. Why? Because it happens almost 100% of the time. The big question is will a shutout pattern show up or not in Dec? I'll wait until I finish my pumpkin and apple pie before deciding that

This.

Some of these twitter dweebs make weenies weenie out even more than usual. Webb lol.

[Rtd208]

14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

He is annoying. It's one damn run lol. And actually I am not hating it.

You can tell he has a level of cockiness to him. But probably lacks experience.

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This.

Some of these twitter dweebs make weenies weenie out even more than usual. Webb lol.

Doesn't it seem exceptionally early to be riding the model roller coaster like it's mid winter? I'm still completely undecided on whether or not Dec is going to be a complete disaster shutout pattern or something less hostile. That's all I care about.

Worrying about a 2-3 day warmup in Nov seems over the top even for the MA sub. We'd probably be better off if it never got below normal this month. The second we had lows in the 20s the bar was raised from just getting a freeze out of the way to expecting a sig snow event. Lol

[WxUSAF]

What the models are changing over the last couple runs is the look in the North Pacific. They’ve done this a fair bit over the last couple weeks and most of the flipflopping is past D10. Conversely, with the trough out west, these runs also keep the -NAO going. But if that’s wrong and the trough does get dumped out west, then yes, we warm up. Trough west and -NAO can keep us somehow cooler than normal.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Doesn't it seem exceptionally early to be riding the model roller coaster like it's mid winter? I'm still completely undecided on whether or not Dec is going to be a complete disaster shutout pattern or something less hostile. That's all I care about.

Worrying about a 2-3 day warmup in Nov seems over the top even for the MA sub. We'd probably be better off if it never got below normal this month. The second we had lows in the 20s the bar was raised from just getting a freeze out of the way to expecting a sig snow event. Lol

Yeah. No idea what all the fuss is about. Who knows if it's correct, but what has caught my eye on recent GEFS runs is the good look up top rolling into December. 

[Wonderdog]

30 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

This fella seems to be enjoying this way too much.  

Maybe we could benefit if we had a 4 to 7 day thread.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Maybe we could benefit if we had a 4 to 7 day thread.

Maybe.  I think Bob is right the mental bar was set too high...at least by me...getting used to BN temps, expecting to see snow flying  and thinking it’s a disaster to see highs in the 50s when our average high is in the 50s.  It’s not like we were going down hill in temps from here on  through the 40s, 30s, 20s like we live in Maine.  Time for a reality reset. 

[showmethesnow]

41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All the ens are doing is finally agreeing on the timing of a trough in the west and subsequent height rises in the east. Normal fall weather... The progression has been hinted at with both ops and ens for days with the main disagreement being timing. That's being resolved now. 

The only thing I didn't like seeing is the AK trough/vortex on the 0z eps d10-15. It's the typical feature that can screw up blocking (think 12-13). It's mid November though. Lol. Did people think the current cold pattern was going to lock and load for 100+ days straight?

It's almost 100% certain Dec will feature a warm spell. Why? Because it happens almost 100% of the time. The big question is will a shutout pattern show up or not in Dec? I'll wait until I finish my pumpkin and apple pie before deciding that

Won't say I am a fan of what we are seeing around Alaska but that isn't something that overly concerns me at this time. What could possibly be a concern for the long term is if we begin seeing a tendency for full throttle ns dumps into the SW. That has been an all to common theme the last few years and is a major handicap to our snow chances here in the mid Atlantic. 

Eta: to be clear I am in no way freaking out about it at this time. But get back to me in a month or so if this becomes a somewhat common occurrence. Would be a different story then. Don't think I could handle yet another year tracking phantom long range pattern flips.

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah. No idea what all the fuss is about. Who knows if it's correct, but what has caught my eye on recent GEFS runs is the good look up top rolling into December. 

Exactly. Seasonal guidance has been rock steady at Dec featuring a mostly to exceptionally bad long wave pattern. If we kick off Dec with a non shutout or even a good winter wx pattern then it's a pretty big win all things considered

[frd]

11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

You can tell he has a level of cockiness to him. But probably lacks experience.

Regardless, I put more weight on Isotherm's forecasts. And so far, with a recent update at 33, he states that everything is going according to his seasonal outlook. Granted , as he admits it is very early.

If Tom's ideas regarding December were going to to verify look for the Pac to become hostile in future model runs ( it has started to a degree ), and look for mostly warm MJO phases that tend to last longer ( similar to last December ) counter to what has been happening so far, and counter as well to the impact of the +IOD.    He continues to favor the second part of winter, which according to his seasonal outlook is later Feb into March. ( based on the QBO I believe and other factors ) .

 I have no idea how things are going to evolve.  There are certain things that are positives that I see,  while others are a red flag.  

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Pattern next 10 days on all ens look decent to me with an NAO ridge closing off, broad US trof which yes is slowly repositioning farther west but the broad look works, closed piece of the PV N of the GL. I guess it is after day 10 that has people concerned but I wouldnt lose sleep over it in November.

[CAPE]

Given what the seasonal guidance has been depicting, the longer we see good looks in the AO/NAO domain on the LR guidance, the better. As most of us know, having a predominant a -AO is number one on the list for cold and snow chances in the DC area.