October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

[dallen7908]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yuck.  The worst.

 

Disagree.  1989-1990 was one of the most memorable winters since I've been in the area.  Thanksgiving eve snow storm.  Spent Thanksgiving in NYC watching the Macy's parade in the snow.  Early December snow.  Snow loss through sublimation.  Ice skating on NASA-Goddard pond.  Pattern change between XMAS and New Years. 

On the medium range front, great to see that the number of EPS members supporting a significant snow in the DC area next weekend (yes that real nice Sunday) has risen from 1 to 3 over the last 24 hours.  

 

 

[peribonca]

18z GFS throws some precip back at us Monday but it's cold rain

[Chris78]

GFS with a nice coastal next weekend. Temps too warm but not to far off. Too bad were not a few weeks further down the road into December.

[Wonderdog]

15 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

GFS with a nice coastal next weekend. Temps too warm but not to far off. Too bad were not a few weeks further down the road into December.

Need that vort to get further south of us.

[frd]

6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Need that vort to get further south of us.

Still,  a pretty crazy look at 500.

 

 

 

[BristowWx]

20 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Need that vort to get further south of us.

Not sure further south maybe further East...anyway That’s so far out on an op run I’m not convinced it can’t be better...or worse...or totally different....

[CAPE]

45 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

On cue ...HH Gfs has a 983 low east of OC ...nice .More exciting runs like this  are coming I'm sure .

As I, and others have said...given the favorable h5 looks advertised on recent LR guidance, this continues to be  a "period of interest".

Could be fun tracking times ahead. 

[WEATHER53]

14 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Posted this in the wrong thread....moving to this one.

For all the peeps in here that have memories like an elephant....any of these dates interesting?  

76 and 84 are there and what followed was epic persistent cold 77 and frigid inauguration 85

[Wonderdog]

Quite a  big difference next weekend when comparing the 0z GFS run with the 6z run this AM. 0z has a run of the mill cold front as opposed to a storm approaching from the west southwest. This goes for the h5 look also. 

[CAPE]

13 hours ago, Chris78 said:

GFS with a nice coastal next weekend. Temps too warm but not to far off. Too bad were not a few weeks further down the road into December.

 

6z has the coastal for the 24th, again implying some frozen on the northern edge. Nice setup at H5. other than ofc, November.

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Quite a  big difference next weekend when comparing the 0z GFS run with the 6z run this AM. 0z has a run of the mill cold front as opposed to a storm approaching from the west southwest. This goes for the h5 look also. 

Can only see the EPS at 240 on TT but h5 again look good to me.  Thanksgiving week should at a minimum not be a torch,  I’m buying a turkey today.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Does anyone know if Baffin Bay is frozen over or not? I ask because looping the 2m temps on the 6z gefs I see an anomalous blob of warmth that is stationary there much like the blob over  Chukchi Sea/Beaufort Sea North of AK which is unfrozen. I'm curious if this will have any effect on increased ridging in the area like that of which seem to be somewhat recurring N of AK in part of the EPO region. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

^^Oh and trying not to look too far ahead but 2m temps in our regions are BN thru majority of the entire run.

[BristowWx]

I can appreciate the ridge out west and trough in the East on the 12z op run for next weekend  but it makes for a boring pattern save the seasonal temps.   

[showmethesnow]

Mentioned awhile ago the period centered around this Wednesday might be of interest. And despite the models basically showing nothing the last few days I still have some interest. The general setup still exists where good timing with any potential ns energy diving into the midwest could be the catalyst for coastal development from ss energy. And the models are all over the place with how they want to handle the ns even though we are now within 48 hours of the key time frame for any potential ns drop. Now one big problem we do have even if we do see the needed ns drop is that the earlier coastal is slow to leave so it is crashing heights in front of any potential ns energy/trough not allowing it to start to turn negative tilt until far to late. But even with that feature we have seen enough variance on solutions that it leaves the door open. A little quicker departure and/or weaker solution may allow for needed height builds to positively influence the eastern trough. 

Now let me be clear, I am neither calling for a storm nor particularly expecting one. I am just pointing out that imo that period of time isn't necessarily dead in the water as of yet and could still surprise. But this doesn't even take into account possible/probably temp issues that would be highly dependent on getting sufficient ns cold injected into our region in time for any possible storm. So we would have that issue to deal with as well.

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Mentioned awhile ago the period centered around this Wednesday might be of interest. And despite the models basically showing nothing the last few days I still have some interest. The general setup still exists where good timing with any potential ns energy diving into the midwest could be the catalyst for coastal development from ss energy. And the models are all over the place with how they want to handle the ns even though we are now within 48 hours of the key time frame for any potential ns drop. Now one big problem we do have even if we do see the needed ns drop is that the earlier coastal is slow to leave so it is crashing heights in front of any potential ns energy/trough not allowing it to start to turn negative tilt until far to late. But even with that feature we have seen enough variance on solutions that it leaves the door open. A little quicker departure and/or weaker solution may allow for needed height builds to positively influence the eastern trough. 

Now let me be clear, I am neither calling for a storm nor particularly expecting one. I am just pointing out that imo that period of time isn't necessarily dead in the water as of yet and could still surprise. But this doesn't even take into account possible/probably temp issues that would be highly dependent on getting sufficient ns cold injected into our region in time for any possible storm. So we would have that issue to deal with as well.

I'm becoming interested in the holiday week. NAO relaxes while the EPO/PNA gets erect. Amplifying cold with a relaxing block makes me think the period is ripe for a coastal/Achambault type event. I'll be up in SW CT so my temporary climo will be greatly improved. We'll probably start seeing some digital fantasy storms as leads shorten. 

[Wonderdog]

16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Mentioned awhile ago the period centered around this Wednesday might be of interest. And despite the models basically showing nothing the last few days I still have some interest. The general setup still exists where good timing with any potential ns energy diving into the midwest could be the catalyst for coastal development from ss energy. And the models are all over the place with how they want to handle the ns even though we are now within 48 hours of the key time frame for any potential ns drop. Now one big problem we do have even if we do see the needed ns drop is that the earlier coastal is slow to leave so it is crashing heights in front of any potential ns energy/trough not allowing it to start to turn negative tilt until far to late. But even with that feature we have seen enough variance on solutions that it leaves the door open. A little quicker departure and/or weaker solution may allow for needed height builds to positively influence the eastern trough. 

Now let me be clear, I am neither calling for a storm nor particularly expecting one. I am just pointing out that imo that period of time isn't necessarily dead in the water as of yet and could still surprise. But this doesn't even take into account possible/probably temp issues that would be highly dependent on getting sufficient ns cold injected into our region in time for any possible storm. So we would have that issue to deal with as well.

500's look to have potential as opposed to the OP for that time period. 

[clskinsfan]

Long range MJO forecast is still really favoring 8-1-2 for the heart of the winter. A lot of the long range stuff is looking pretty favorable IMO. At least I dont think we will be seeing wall to wall torch this winter. And the storm chances should be there.

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm becoming interested in the holiday week. NAO relaxes while the EPO/PNA gets erect. Amplifying cold with a relaxing block makes me think the period is ripe for a coastal/Achambault type event. I'll be up in SW CT so my temporary climo will be greatly improved. We'll probably start seeing some digital fantasy storms as leads shorten. 

Being away for a wedding in Arizona limits my model tracking but from what I have been seeing posted here as well as some casual tracking on my own I like the setup and features in play in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. Especially when it comes to your local which won't be climo temp and latitude challenged as we will be down here.

Besides the favorable setup in the n Atlantic I really like what we are seeing upstream through the CONUS as well as through southern Canada through this period of time. The general setup is a forgiving one and imo ups the odds on the potential even for down here in the mid Atlantic. That said I do think it is highly dependent at this time on two things happening especially for down here in our backyards. We need to see the sw energy eject, whether strung out or consolidated and we need to see the ns dropping down in the midwest in front of this energy and not behind. We see this and it opens up several possibilities from overrunning to a possible coastal or some solution in between, temps being cooperative of course. 

But being 7+ days out it isn't really worth trying to nail down any details especially with 2 features (ns, sw energy) that the models are notorious on mishandling. 

[CAPE]

Dec 1 is in range on the LR Globals, and it looks pretty cold. Frontal passage and cold pressing with suggestions of moisture lurking along the Gulf coast leading up to Thanksgiving on the Euro. Verbatim its a flat wave that would slide off the coast well south, with NS energy dropping down but well behind. More SS energy in the SW. Pattern overall looks quite active last week of Nov heading into Dec. I would feel pretty good if I lived in C/SNE.

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Being away for a wedding in Arizona limits my model tracking but from what I have been seeing posted here as well as some casual tracking on my own I like the setup and features in play in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. Especially when it comes to your local which won't be climo temp and latitude challenged as we will be down here.

Besides the favorable setup in the n Atlantic I really like what we are seeing upstream through the CONUS as well as through southern Canada through this period of time. The general setup is a forgiving one and imo ups the odds on the potential even for down here in the mid Atlantic. That said I do think it is highly dependent at this time on two things happening especially for down here in our backyards. We need to see the sw energy eject, whether strung out or consolidated and we need to see the ns dropping down in the midwest in front of this energy and not behind. We see this and it opens up several possibilities from overrunning to a possible coastal or some solution in between, temps being cooperative of course. 

But being 7+ days out it isn't really worth trying to nail down any details especially with 2 features (ns, sw energy) that the models are notorious on mishandling. 

Good posts and lines up with my only concern. IF we do not get some northern stream interaction, the pattern could favor southern sliders. I think (just from my reading) this is what Chill is mentioning on why he like the NAO relaxation a bit because it allow more northerly possibilities, but we need the reinforcing shot of cold to make it work. Surprise surprise... timing is everything. Thanks from the insights all around. Still looks much more promising a pattern and especially happy there is no torch!

[Ralph Wiggum]

11/16 EPS 12z looks almost identical to 11/15 EPS 12z. If anything NAO ridge looks a hair stronger. Western ridge more evident with reinforcing arctic flow into broad Eastern US trof. Low height Eastern 2/3 of the country. I've seen worse looks in late Nov.

^^PV appears to be splitting as well with one center anchored N of Siberia and the other trying to pinch off around Hudson Bay. Yummy. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

11/16 EPS 12z looks almost identical to 11/15 EPS 12z. If anything NAO ridge looks a hair stronger. Western ridge more evident with reinforcing arctic flow into broad Eastern US trof. Low height Eastern 2/3 of the country. I've seen worse looks in late Nov.

That's the exact timeframe I was referring to on the Euro op run in my post above. We keep seeing the good looks on guidance from around the 24th through the 30th. Potential is there, but timing and climo are the challenge.

[jewell2188]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That's the exact timeframe I was referring to on the Euro op run in my post above. We keep seeing the good looks on guidance from around the 24th through the 30th. Potential is there, but timing and climo are the challenge.

I don’t think anyone could complain about these looks. We all know what typical November looks like around here. BN temps are a plus imo. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That's the exact timeframe I was referring to on the Euro op run in my post above. We keep seeing the good looks on guidance from around the 24th through the 30th. Potential is there, but timing and climo are the challenge.

I'll certainly take my chances with that look if it holds. I'm more watching how the flip to +NAO that the weeklies show continues to get pushed back. Like I said too this run the NAO is a hair stronger. Was hoping to just see it not continue to fade from - to + .... didnt expect a better look up there. Would still hope to see the AO work in our favor at some point but these seem to be good signs thru 10 days at least. Persistence. Like Chill said above, the NAO going - to + might favor something father N with no NS in play but tbh this look has potential. Climo going to be tough still but again for me it is all about 10 days and under along with seeing some persistence with certain features. It isnt even Dec yet and there are favorable pattern drivers to track. Cant really ask for much more at this point.

[BristowWx]

Those EPS looks are screen saver worthy. The date stamp is the only issue.  If that said 12/24 it would be drool worthy.  Having weenie fun right now.

[frd]

53 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That's the exact timeframe I was referring to on the Euro op run in my post above. We keep seeing the good looks on guidance from around the 24th through the 30th. Potential is there, but timing and climo are the challenge.

You hit the climo part, which is my main concern. However, looking at the glass half full , maybe winter is showing its hand and we will revisit this favorable pattern again later in December and in early Jan. when we reshuffle. 

I like the pattern to produce a significant event in the time frame you have spoken about. 

A very interesting - NAO on the EPS, Webb and HM both alluded to this  a couple weeks ago. Sure, it still has to happen, but it appears more likely now.  

So watch for the HA event near the NAO fluctuations as Bob spoke about. 

  

Also, a quick look at Ventrice and his wave 5 portrayal 

 

 

 

[Herb@MAWS]

Time-sensitive but a nice blow-up of clouds early this evening just south of S-ern NC. 

[frd]

@Ralph Wiggum believe you were interested in this possibly, 

The area of the Chukchi Sea is still far behind other years in terms of icing over. 

There is even research on this area and when the onset of the freeze will begin. According to the source we are very, very late. 28 to 41 days later

than the long-term mean ( 1981-2016 ).  

If this is a driver to the pattern based on the delay in ice onset it should continue to be  driver for at least the next 1 to 2 months.       

 

 Projected Onset of Freeze on the Chukchi Sea Continental Shelf in 2019

The purpose of this experiment is to a) develop an informed basis for advising a hypothetical maritime interest operating in the region; and b) to identify conditions that cause sudden large departures (increase in risk). It also provides a result that can be evaluated against other methodologies.

Projection: Freeze onset on the Chukchi Sea continental shelf northwest of Icy Cape is estimated to begin between 23 November and 6 December 2019 (Fig. 1). This is 28-41 days later than the long-term mean (1981-2016). The onset metric is defined by sea-ice concentration reaching 30% as determined by passive microwave observation in the reference area shown in Fig. 2 (top).

Fig. 1. Observed day of year that sea-ice concentration in the reference area northwest of Icy Cape first reaches 30%, as determined from passive microwave data. The blue markers show the range (14 days) of the projected onset of freeze in 2019. The dashed line shows the long-term mean (1981-2016).

Data considered: 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 in-situ observations from autonomous ocean profiling floats, aircraft and satellite-derived visible imagery, and SST radiometry. Persistence is evaluated using historical ice concentration data from passive microwave satellites, provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). 

Rationale: Data from autonomous floats indicate upper water column (5-15 m) temperatures in the Chukchi Sea in 2019 were as warm as 2018 between Cape Lisburne and Icy Cape, and considerably warmer than 2016 and 2017. However, in 2019 the water column was more stratified than 2018, and bottom-layer temperatures were cooler. Moreover, float observations show that a relatively thick, cold (-0.8 to -1.6 °C) layer of remnant winter water persisted into autumn near the shelf break to the westward of Barrow Canyon. Thus, it is likely that the water column on the northern shelf will cool faster through mixing than in 2018, offsetting the presence of a very warm, but thinner, surface mixed layer (Fig 2 bottom). 

Fig. 2. (Left) Map showing the reference area northwest of Icy Cape (red box) adopted for this projection. (Bottom) Temperature plot from ALAMO float 9234, initially deployed in May 2019. These data show that cold saltier water (generally -1°C or colder, ~32-32.25 PSU) persisted on the Chukchi continental shelf through the summer, under a relatively thin surface mixed layer. Plots of additional variables from this and other floats are available at https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/arctic-heat/.

Review of historical data show that freeze-up has been uniformly later than the long-term mean since 2002, and year-to-year variability has been less. This is due in part to the consistent minima in Arctic sea-ice extent leading to a decline in 2nd year ice advection into the reference area in October and November. The greater distance to the summer sea-ice edge in 2019, along with above freezing water temperatures seen in all of the float data from Canada Basin down to ~100 m suggests that ice advection will be less of a factor than it was in 2018. At freeze-up in 2019, it is likely sea-ice in the reference area will consist entirely of thin, newly formed types (e.g., sheets of young ice and pancake), especially near the coast.

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

@Ralph Wiggum believe you were interested in this possibly, 

The area of the Chukchi Sea is still far behind other years in terms of icing over. 

There is even research on this area and when the onset of the freeze will begin. According to the source we are very, very late. 28 to 41 days later

than the long-term mean ( 1981-2016 ).  

If this is a driver to the pattern based on the delay in ice onset it should continue to be  driver for at least the next 1 to 2 months.       

 

 Projected Onset of Freeze on the Chukchi Sea Continental Shelf in 2019

The purpose of this experiment is to a) develop an informed basis for advising a hypothetical maritime interest operating in the region; and b) to identify conditions that cause sudden large departures (increase in risk). It also provides a result that can be evaluated against other methodologies.

Projection: Freeze onset on the Chukchi Sea continental shelf northwest of Icy Cape is estimated to begin between 23 November and 6 December 2019 (Fig. 1). This is 28-41 days later than the long-term mean (1981-2016). The onset metric is defined by sea-ice concentration reaching 30% as determined by passive microwave observation in the reference area shown in Fig. 2 (top).

Fig. 1. Observed day of year that sea-ice concentration in the reference area northwest of Icy Cape first reaches 30%, as determined from passive microwave data. The blue markers show the range (14 days) of the projected onset of freeze in 2019. The dashed line shows the long-term mean (1981-2016).

Data considered: 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 in-situ observations from autonomous ocean profiling floats, aircraft and satellite-derived visible imagery, and SST radiometry. Persistence is evaluated using historical ice concentration data from passive microwave satellites, provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). 

Rationale: Data from autonomous floats indicate upper water column (5-15 m) temperatures in the Chukchi Sea in 2019 were as warm as 2018 between Cape Lisburne and Icy Cape, and considerably warmer than 2016 and 2017. However, in 2019 the water column was more stratified than 2018, and bottom-layer temperatures were cooler. Moreover, float observations show that a relatively thick, cold (-0.8 to -1.6 °C) layer of remnant winter water persisted into autumn near the shelf break to the westward of Barrow Canyon. Thus, it is likely that the water column on the northern shelf will cool faster through mixing than in 2018, offsetting the presence of a very warm, but thinner, surface mixed layer (Fig 2 bottom). 

Fig. 2. (Left) Map showing the reference area northwest of Icy Cape (red box) adopted for this projection. (Bottom) Temperature plot from ALAMO float 9234, initially deployed in May 2019. These data show that cold saltier water (generally -1°C or colder, ~32-32.25 PSU) persisted on the Chukchi continental shelf through the summer, under a relatively thin surface mixed layer. Plots of additional variables from this and other floats are available at https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/arctic-heat/.

Review of historical data show that freeze-up has been uniformly later than the long-term mean since 2002, and year-to-year variability has been less. This is due in part to the consistent minima in Arctic sea-ice extent leading to a decline in 2nd year ice advection into the reference area in October and November. The greater distance to the summer sea-ice edge in 2019, along with above freezing water temperatures seen in all of the float data from Canada Basin down to ~100 m suggests that ice advection will be less of a factor than it was in 2018. At freeze-up in 2019, it is likely sea-ice in the reference area will consist entirely of thin, newly formed types (e.g., sheets of young ice and pancake), especially near the coast.

 

 

 

Great data! Was more questioning the similarities in the Bering Sea. I noticed there is an anomalous blob of +SD 2m temps that are stationary there on the GEFS the entire run. I wonder how/if that will affect ridging in that area.

Eta: Bering Ses is a much smaller area so assuming that will freeze over quickly if not already. Just seems behind quite a bit also.