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October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range


mattie g
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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Great minds think alike. Of course it doesn't hurt that if I am wrong at least I have a fellow shipmate to go down on the Titanic with me. :D

Pretty much agree with everything you are saying except differ somewhat on what the models suggest in regards to the AO (or at least I believe we see a much more robust signal). Looking at the mid and upper levels is suggestive to me that we see some fairly impressive height builds over the pole and polar regions (2-3 weeks). These same things are also suggestive of major fracturing and displacement southward of the pv at 500's, aka strong -ao.

I think the AO has chance to go more significantly negative moving forward, so we agree there too. Part of that post I was just giving the current projections on the teleconnections verbatim from the EPS through the end of its run. Things are evolving upstairs in the HL regions, and for now it looks like steady as she goes with continued PV disruptions.

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16 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

What does it mean? 

 

This was another thing I liked seeing amidst our current projected warmup in the extended. What we were seeing regards to the PAC Jet and the tropical jet. Currently we see a strong PAC jet exiting off Asia into the Pacific but it is getting quickly hammered in the central Pacific so as that it is weakened and under goes major gyrations within the flow as it approaches N America. During the projected warmup we see the disruption to the jet in the central Pacific let up a touch so that we see a slightly stronger/straighter/more consolidated jet approaching our shores. But this looks to be brief in nature as the disruptions ramp up once again. This in my mind is a good omen that we will not be plagued with a strong overwhelming jet this winter. Also it looks as if the tropical jet (via the Pineapple express) is ramping up somewhat as well. Not to mention that we continue to see split flow off the SW coast popping up time and again. I also noted a week or two ago about another possible source of a tropical jet (disassociated from the normal PAC one as this one would pull moisture up from the equator through generally Mexico) that might be a player at times. And we are still seeing that feature showing up, the anticyclonic rotation generally situated around the Gulf/Mexico/Central America. 

All in all I like what we have seen and are projected to see in the coming two weeks. Makes me tend to believe that if this winter ends up being a dud it won't be because the PAC failed us.

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54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Webb's been plugging a warm December for awhile, but that’s because he’s showing that the atmosphere is behaving very Nino-ish, even if the SSTs are neutral/warm neutral. 

 

Our winters always feature warm stretches and I'm not concerned about mild periods unless they are warm AND hostile against snowfall for weeks on end. I know you feel identical on this. 

If this ends up being a notable cold winter I (and everyone else) will be surprised. But we care most about snowfall so my focus is always exclusively on that. Seasonal guidance for Dec looks really crappy for the east coast in general and has yet to waver. This plot really sucks... lol. Euro seasonal and cansips are similar enough to worry a little. 

cfs-mon_01_z500a_nhem_1.png

 

The good thing is seasonal and even weekly guidance busts horribly as much as it gets it right. I really like what's been happening this month and long lead stuff the last few months didn't show the strong height anomalies in good places that we're seeing now. That's encouraging because persistance in the med term is often a sign that it will continue instead of flip to crap. That cuts both ways of course like last year being the ultimate tease of the promised land just around the corner but persistance held on for months. 

The million $ question is will the current height pattern or some decent variation persist or reccur in Dec? No way to know yet but I'm not buying what Dec guidance is showing until it actually starts happening. If we roll into Dec with a nice -ao and pna and/or epo ridge then all bets are off on a warm shutout Dec. The case for this is slowly building at least. 

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Given that last December I literally didn't even see a flake of snow, it can only go up from there for this year, even if there are torchy days/weeks/full month.  I had no expectation that November cross polar flow would lock in for 9 weeks, so not surprised in the least that's going to break down.  But I like the trend to Aleutian low (also Ninoish) as well as the signs that the PV (trop and Strat) keeps getting beat up.  

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Given that last December I literally didn't even see a flake of snow, it can only go up from there for this year, even if there are torchy days/weeks/full month.  I had no expectation that November cross polar flow would lock in for 9 weeks, so not surprised in the least that's going to break down.  But I like the trend to Aleutian low (also Ninoish) as well as the signs that the PV (trop and Strat) keeps getting beat up.  

Yep, and frankly I just can't get excited or depressed about seasonal or weekly models after last year.

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Yep, and frankly I just can't get excited or depressed about seasonal or weekly models after last year.

Yup.  They've been terrible of late (see the predictions for this month) and were terribad last year when we had 3 months of KU pattern advertisements.  Keep focused on the next 2 weeks and that's about all we can have any faith in.  

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Webb's been plugging a warm December for awhile, but that’s because he’s showing that the atmosphere is behaving very Nino-ish, even if the SSTs are neutral/warm neutral. 

 

 

It makes sense since most of the other pattern drivers are in a state most common with a nino. On top of that the enso is warm neutral so not like it’s that far off. That might be a bad sign for December but good for winter since some of the nino analogs that fit in other ways were the better years. But I tended to toss them because enso differences are hard to ignore but perhaps of this behaves like a nino...

Btw have you seen any good studies on why every so often a nino year bucks the trend of warm December?  2/3 go mild, but then there are years like 2002 and 2009.  Those years had opposite North Pacific sst patterns so there isn’t an easily identifiable cause. Both featured NAO help in December where most other ninos the NAO didn’t cooperate until later. But that isn’t very helpful in a predictive way without establishing causality.  

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24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup.  They've been terrible of late (see the predictions for this month) and were terribad last year when we had 3 months of KU pattern advertisements.  Keep focused on the next 2 weeks and that's about all we can have any faith in.  

Exactly. 2 weeks is the only thing worth focusing on with weak or neutral enso. I got rabbitholed last year because the consensus was as stunning as the pattern being shown. Fool me once...

There are some features where skill is notably higher in the weekly/seasonal guidance. The no brainer stuff is mod or strong enso. You won't find many of those years that behaved far differently than expected. Outside of that it's no longer worth it to to me to spend time overanalyzing anything way out there in time. It's futile. Idgaf about qbo, sswe, or mjo or any other secondary feature. As a matter of fact seeing lots of chatter about the strat or qbo or mjo or AAM or mountain torque is typically a great indicator that we're in trouble or things arent going as planned 

The AO is the next best predictive feature other than mod/strong enso. Especially in Dec. A nasty -AO or +AO has like 80% predictive skill in our region for better or for worse. Imho- the AO is the single most important thing to focus on for the next 6 weeks. So far so good there...

MJO is a great signal when it correlates and a complete headfake when it doesnt. We've had cold and snow in all warm phases of the mjo or vice versa. From what I've seen the mjo has good predictive skill but only when something(s) else are working with it. What those "somethings" are is complicated and muddy. I'll just stick to the simple stuff like the AO and the persistant long wave pattern in the nPac this year. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Btw have you seen any good studies on why every so often a nino year bucks the trend of warm December?  2/3 go mild, but then there are years like 2002 and 2009.  Those years had opposite North Pacific sst patterns so there isn’t an easily identifiable cause. Both featured NAO help in December where most other ninos the NAO didn’t cooperate until later. But that isn’t very helpful in a predictive way without establishing causality.  

I feel like I did see some chatter on Twitter about that in the last few weeks, but can't recall who/what/where. You could wag low solar for the 2009, but that doesn't jive for 2002, so...  Every December has been warm lately and if the atmosphere is acting like a Nino, then going warm December is even easier.  Question is whether it's wall-to-wall torch, or just averages out AN with some cold mixed in.  Would be nice if we end November/start December on the AN side and then turn cold by mid-month when climo helps us more and more.  

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Even "if" you buy into this,  which based on most variables, persistence, and the cycle since 2000 which support Webb in his assumptions, then what about the timing.

December could start out warm, and I put out there that we may be ahead of the typical response for December ( warm ) and hence return to a colder period in mid December versus in early Jan.  

 

 

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5 hours ago, frd said:

 

Even "if" you buy into this,  which based on most variables, persistence, and the cycle since 2000 which support Webb in his assumptions, then what about the timing.

December could start out warm, and I put out there that we may be ahead of the typical response for December ( warm ) and hence return to a colder period in mid December versus in early Jan.  

 

 

I agree...If we are solely basing the dec pattern on projecting the MJO, then by Dec 1st we should see the colder pattern coming on LR ens.  Although, this tour of the cold phases looks very similar to the last....even down to the slower movement in 1/2.  Who knows though...forecasting the MJO past a week is iffy.

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On 11/10/2019 at 8:58 AM, Rhino16 said:

Good writeup. Maybe we’ll be able to spend turkey day outside and not be cold the whole time.

Ugh, you are one of those guys. It's Thanksgiving, not Labor Day. You don't need to sit on the patio and sip Coronas. You had the last 6 months to do that.

Sit by the fire with a sweater on. That's Thanksgiving.

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Ugh, you are one of those guys. It's Thanksgiving, not Labor Day. You don't need to sit on the patio and sip Coronas. You had the last 6 months to do that.

Sit by the fire with a sweater on. That's Thanksgiving.

It needs to be chilly on Turkey day because my microwave makes my house too hot

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4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Euro show any changeover to snow tomorrow still? I see the NAM, GFS and Canadian have all kind of back off at 12z on the changeover for the most part. Not that its a big deal anyway, just curious

Yeah  for like 5 mins lol. We were discussing in the disco-obs thread. Has a bit more for SE areas of the region.

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah  for like 5 mins lol. We were discussing in the disco-obs thread. Has a bit more for SE areas of the region.

Gotcha. thanks. I cant believe how some of the local Baltimore metorologists have been talking about this. Not that they were saying it was going to be some kind of signifcant accumulation event but to spend a week talking about it and some of the wording used, I just dont get it.

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Gotcha. thanks. I cant believe how some of the local Baltimore metorologists have been talking about this. Not that they were saying it was going to be some kind of signifcant accumulation event but to spend a week talking about it and some of the wording used, I just dont get it.

Yeah I had channel 45 on watching the late game yesterday and they did their spot for the upcoming newscast and mentioned the arctic cold but said that might not be the biggest story- there is snow in the forecast! I was quickly reminded why I NEVER watch local news anymore.

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