stormtracker Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 4 hours ago, LurkerBoy said: None of you know what you’re talking about and there’s no women in this forum anywhere because it’s a boys club where outsiders are condescended to. Have a good winter. Move north Do I address you as LurkerBoy or Lurkerman? Your profile leaves me confused. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Do I address you as LurkerBoy or Lurkerman? Your profile leaves me confused. Or is it Lurkerweenie? (relative to the multifaceted interpretation of the weenie avatar) Oh sh*t - that's probably not suitable for those under 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I'm buying that snow shower line or squall that comes through late next Tuesday evening on the 00z ICON Moves SE through DC metro for like 6 hours -- see hours 96 to 105 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I'm buying that snow shower line or squall that comes through late next Tuesday evening on the 00z ICON Moves SE through DC metro for like 6 hours -- see hours 96 to 105 Verbatim it drops .5” or so. It’s been fairly consistent in showing it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Verbatim it drops .5” or so. It’s been fairly consistent in showing it too. ICON also wants snow showers on Friday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 ICON also wants snow showers on Friday too. CMC has it as a clipper. I’m all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 If the GFS is to be believed our brush with winter is going to be brief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If the GFS is to be believed our brush with winter is going to be brief I was looking at the 850 temp anomaly on GEFS toward turkey day....Canada is torch red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If the GFS is to be believed our brush with winter is going to be brief Good it's too early anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Would anyone be pissed if we flip back cold mid December? Asking for a friend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Good it's too early anyway I agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Would anyone be pissed if we flip back cold mid December? Asking for a friend No. Get this ground cold sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I was looking at the 850 temp anomaly on GEFS toward turkey day....Canada is torch red. Going to be a winter of ups and downs (balancing act). Visits by the PV and periods of zonal PAC dominated flow. 500mb teleconnections look decent during that period. PAC flow however looks flat into the NW (250 mb jet) which is why you are seeing the AN anomalies across Canada. It happens. I dont think it will be a wall to wall PAC dominated winter like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 24 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I was looking at the 850 temp anomaly on GEFS toward turkey day....Canada is torch red. EPS disagrees FWIW. And Mike Ventrice notes that the Strat vortex will keep getting beat up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Going to be a winter of ups and downs (balancing act). Visits by the PV and periods of zonal PAC dominated flow. 500mb teleconnections look decent during that period. PAC flow however looks flat into the NW (250 mb jet) which is why you are seeing the AN anomalies across Canada. It happens. I dont think it will be a wall to wall PAC dominated winter like last year. Makes sense to me and considering the EPS doesn’t agree is good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS disagrees FWIW. And Mike Ventrice notes that the Strat vortex will keep getting beat up This isnt a horrible look. Much rather see a split PV with elongations and lobes rather than one that is consolidated over the N Pole and causing a persistent zonal flow across the lower 48. This also aids in the increased likelihood for HL blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 EPS in the MR has the big blocking ridge over Chukchi(displaced WPO), then it weakens in the LR, and shifts the PNA ridge a bit eastward. EPO looks to trend neutral/positive. AO looks slightly negative, with a neutral NAO(maybe trending more negative at the end). PV looks to remain fairly perturbed as we continue to see TPV lobes rotating down. I am down with that look heading towards the end of the month. Should be generally chilly for the EC if it verifies. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 18 hours ago, LurkerBoy said: None of you know what you’re talking about and there’s no women in this forum anywhere because it’s a boys club where outsiders are condescended to. Have a good winter. Move north Woman, checking in. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 1 hour ago, mappy said: Woman, checking in. Heading north? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam joins the Euro with a period of light snow for northern Md Tuesday fwiw. Temps are marginal but it would be a nice little appetizer for winter . GFS moved back toward that at 6z also. Better for @C.A.P.E. especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Heading north? Any further north and I’ll have to post elsewhere 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Always glad to see Carbondale check in as the season gets underway... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: I mentioned yesterday .Some ensemble members still show a sort of secondary precip max for se areas and towards eastern shore . Some of them are rain and a few are wet snow . Something to keep an eye on . With no real trailing wave on the front, it looks like the usual cold chasing precip to me. Models do this a lot- show brief frozen on the tail end- and it is normally a total zero. Probably the best shot at seeing some flakes flying is with some instability snow showers as the legit cold moves in behind the front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Euro has replaced our coastal low for next weekend with a 1040mb arctic high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has replaced our coastal low for next weekend with a 1040mb arctic high pressure. Had a hunch the flip to warm will be delayed. Very impressive high latitude AN height/pressure pattern going on. A setup that typically fights back before caving. Def not the same pattern that displaced the tpv during 13-15 seasons. The longer it holds on the better the odds of a recurrence after it takes a break. Starting Dec with an anomalous -AO would be a solid reason to turn optimistic for early winter snowfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Had a hunch the flip to warm will be delayed. Very impressive high latitude AN height/pressure pattern going on. A setup that typically fights back before caving. Def not the same pattern that displaced the tpv during 13-15 seasons. The longer it holds on the better the odds of a recurrence after it takes a break. Starting Dec with an anomalous -AO would be a solid reason to turn optimistic for early winter snowfall. Im on the December 5th train join me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Seeing the 1hr time steps on the Euro, you can see that there still is a little wave along the front Tuesday which keeps the precip going as the cold air moves in and flips things to wet snow for central MD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Im on the December 5th train join me I'm always in on that. More importantly... I'm looking for anything and everything that points towards Dec not being a disaster. If the seasonal/weekly guidance is right there won't be very many happy weenies in the MA this Dec. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Had a hunch the flip to warm will be delayed. Very impressive high latitude AN height/pressure pattern going on. A setup that typically fights back before caving. Def not the same pattern that displaced the tpv during 13-15 seasons. The longer it holds on the better the odds of a recurrence after it takes a break. Starting Dec with an anomalous -AO would be a solid reason to turn optimistic for early winter snowfall. Of interest ....... hopefully it has a clue. Or , another way to look at it ..... Bob > CFSv2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Somebody give me a weenie like. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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