October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

[frd]

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That dude is at least half full of shiit. Some might even say his SAI theory is akin to selling snake oil. Always an excuse when it fails, and then he manages to take credit when it turns out cold and snowy despite the SAI/AO correlation not working out.

When I think back to last winter and things to watch of real substance as clues to the upcoming winter one would be getting the trough in East and the ridge to set up out West for more than a day or two. 

Last year and this year as well, there has been a very fast Pac jet that broke down quickly any attempt out West for a ridge to form.   I thought the seasonal guidance had a forecast of robust West coast ridging at times extending into a + PNA . 

To make matters worse we set records for the speed of the Pac jet last fall and winter , some really crazy numbers. 

We need to buckle the flow and get some  real changes out West extending into NW Canada, 

These are some things I would look for in the next 4 to 6 weeks as possible clues for the period DJF.  

 

  

[WxUSAF]

Damn I'd love to see this look in 6-8 weeks.  For now it probably just means IAD's (and maybe the other airports') first freeze, some mountain snow showers, and possibly chilly rain for us. 

 

[frd]

Nice time lapse.

Thinking in the process here extensive snow cover in  NA the next 15 days, and then with the PV back closer to Siberia building cold air and the snow cover/advance resumes shortly.

 

 

 

 

    

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Damn I'd love to see this look in 6-8 weeks.  For now it probably just means IAD's (and maybe the other airports') first freeze, some mountain snow showers, and possibly chilly rain for us. 

 

 

I said the same thing in a post early this morning. Also, this is like a trial run- we need to see if these great advertised h5 looks verify in real time. That rarely ever happened last winter.

So here is a 12z EURO Ens mean h5 height anomaly panel for late month. Another beauty.

 

[WxUSAF]

^pants tent in DJFM.  

 

First freeze pretty likely IMO for perhaps everyone but DCA in the October 25-Nov 3 window, assuming these looks come fairly close to verifying.  

[poolz1]

Those looks on the GEFS are about as classic as it gets....Just need to rinse and repeat for the next 4 months.

Cherry Pickin

 

[Chris78]

33 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Those looks on the GEFS are about as classic as it gets....Just need to rinse and repeat for the next 4 months.

Cherry Pickin

 

The look from day 8 on is awesome. Let's hope it's winter tipping it hand. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Those looks on the GEFS are about as classic as it gets....Just need to rinse and repeat for the next 4 months.

Cherry Pickin

 

@poolz1 

Just as much as getting the block to form is the location of it . This might  be another indication for the winter upcoming , speculation of course . 

The map  you have here is classic West NAO domain based blocking. 

You can see that many posters across the Pond are complaining that over there the - NAO has so far only brought warmth.  The East based - NAO   is what they desire I believe.  

Of note as well,  if you look at some 500 mb maps posted around  the low solar winters they look like the map above. 

Does this repeat in the winter , not sure. But, no longer can those who say it means nothing continue to say that, because we are into early November if that map verifies.  

Meanwhile ,solar conditions are pretty dead. Even though the numbers are not on par with 09- 10 we have very low AP numbers, low solar flux and very low sunspots. 

 

 

 

 

This is purely solar minimum winters:  

 

 

 

This is solar minimum winters ( below ) combined with a  Enso neutral / weak warm , note the change in the NE Pac and the cold extends East to Europe and beyond.. 

Courtesy Andrej Flis  ( @Recretos )

 

 

 

 

 

[Chris78]

GEFS gets HL blocking going about a week from now and stays strong there after. This look in about 6 weeks please.

[CAPE]

Last few runs of the Euro ens mean shows a bit of a trend towards more east coast ridging at the end of October, as the EPAC ridge is further west and mean trough is in the western/central US. Still eventually gets a trough in the east, but not until the end (of the 0z run), which is early Nov, and it's not a deep trough. GEFS looks similar, but to a lesser degree, and still gets some pretty chilly air here by the very end of the month.. These LR "trends" are what I am keeping an eye on in preseason, because this was the tendency last winter on the guidance- advertise a great h5 look(esp NA block) in the day 10-15 period, but as we get closer to that timeframe, the depicted pattern becomes less favorable/gets pushed back in time. Often it never verified in real time.

I guess going into this winter, I am in 'believe it when I see it mode'. And also, screw the Euro weeklies lol. Have not looked at those once since reactivating WB.

[poolz1]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Last few runs of the Euro ens mean shows a bit of a trend towards more east coast ridging at the end of October, as the EPAC ridge is further west and mean trough is in the western/central US. Still eventually gets a trough in the east, but not until the end (of the 0z run), which is early Nov, and it's not a deep trough. GEFS looks similar, but to a lesser degree, and still gets some pretty chilly air here by the very end of the month.. These LR "trends" are what I am keeping an eye on in preseason, because this was the tendency last winter on the guidance- advertise a great h5 look(esp NA block) in the day 10-15 period, but as we get closer to that timeframe, the depicted pattern becomes less favorable/gets pushed back in time. Often it never verified in real time.

I guess going into this winter, I am in 'believe it when I see it mode'. And also, screw the Euro weeklies lol. Have not looked at those once since reactivating WB.

I've tried to take a 'believe it when I see it' approach every year.  It took last year for this to finally take for me.  On paper it wasnt a bad winter here but the consistent fails of seasonal, long-range and med range forecasts took its toll.  I admit, I have been looking at the weeklies....

On a positive note, the models did not lose the ridging in the NAO region in the med range.  Both the GEFS and Euro now have a robust closed upper ridge over Greenland.  GEFS have lead the way with this feature so far with the Euro now showing a closed ridge.  Another common theme seems to be the Aleutian low/ N of HI.  The inability to have low heights N of HI last year was frustrating. 

[frd]

59 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

The inability to have low heights N of HI last year was frustrating.

So true. That was a big issue, pumped a ridge and then the corresponding SE ridge gave us warmth.  

I know bluewave and I were talking about the sea surface anomalies North and South of Hawaii last winter and the set up so far this fall.

Also the research on the warmer SSTs being closer to the Aleutian islands versus closer to the coast of the Pacific NW is interesting.

It is going to be a little longer until we get an idea where the Ridge axis is going to set up. Too far West as you know would be a bad thing for us.   

Along with you and CAPE, I have no expectations about the winter ahead. Honestly I miss the days when I was 10 years old and awoke to find a winter wonderland.  

[frd]

Have to wonder whether the Euro does have some sort of bias with over doing a SE ridge / WAR. 

Pretty dramatic changes on the EPS yet, as others have mentioned,  the GFS and the GEFS have not changes that much. 

I really like to see some stability in the Euro. I mean now it has the cold dump in the West.  

Ventrice posted on this,  but I would not really feel totally comfortable buying that look 100 % from the Euro at this time.

And lets not forget the times of those forecasts , one from Monday and the latest from last night.  

 

 

 

 

[frd]

A little more on the changes for late month, this is a good one from Webb, explains maybe why things are turning the way they are for later October. 

 

 

[aldie 22]

All of those pages of pants tent for nothing:(

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Have to wonder whether the Euro does have some sort of bias with over doing a SE ridge / WAR. 

Pretty dramatic changes on the EPS yet, as others have mentioned,  the GFS and the GEFS have not changes that much. 

I really like to see some stability in the Euro. I mean now it has the cold dump in the West.  

Ventrice posted on this,  but I would not really feel totally comfortable buying that look 100 % from the Euro at this time.

And lets not forget the times of those forecasts , one from Monday and the latest from last night.  

 

 

 

 

The look the Euro is now advertising is much like what we were' fighting' last winter although the MJO/ENSO forcing is not the same now. No one can know how this evolves going forward, so like always, we keep an eye on it  and hope it doesn't become another tease-fest in the LR, only to see the advertised pattern deteriorate in later runs as we get closer to reality lol. If a monster blocking ridge in the NE Pac should become a fixture, the positive impacts from any NA blocking that develops would tend to be mitigated. 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The look the Euro is now advertising is much like what we were' fighting' last winter although the MJO/ENSO forcing is not the same now. No one can know how this evolves going forward, so like always, we keep an eye on it  and hope it doesn't become another tease-fest in the LR, only to see the advertised pattern deteriorate in later runs as we get closer to reality lol. If a monster blocking ridge in the NE Pac should become a fixture, the positive impacts from any NA blocking that develops would tend to be mitigated. 

Case in point- pretty darn impressive  NA look here, but surface temps are mid 60s or even higher. This looks familiar lol. Honestly not worth worrying about at this juncture. Something to keep an eye on.

 

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Case in point- pretty darn impressive  NA look here, but surface temps are mid 60s or even higher. This looks familiar lol. Honestly not worth worrying about at this juncture. Something to keep an eye on.

 

The epo ridge there isn’t ideal...but I would worry more about the NAO verifying. If it does we would get opportunities in winter in that look. Last year the NAO kept verifying weaker and transient. That won’t cut it with the epo ridge centered off the west coast.  But even given that, we still managed several overinning type snows during that stretch just never the epic pattern we were teased with. With a legit NAO block that pattern can work. There would be some SE ridge at times but there would also be storms forced to slide under at times. I wouldn’t take the results in late October with significantly shorter wavelengths and cold to be indicative of what would happen in winter. 

Now all that said, the NAO has been like chasing a white whale lately so I would prefer a better pacific look where we didn’t need the NAO. But I am interested to see if the blocking comes to fruition this time and if it does during winter I wouldn’t be as concerned about the pacific ridge. 

[frd]

8 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The look the Euro is now advertising is much like what we were' fighting' last winter although the MJO/ENSO forcing is not the same now. No one can know how this evolves going forward, so like always, we keep an eye on it  and hope it doesn't become another tease-fest in the LR, only to see the advertised pattern deteriorate in later runs as we get closer to reality lol. If a monster blocking ridge in the NE Pac should become a fixture, the positive impacts from any NA blocking that develops would tend to be mitigated. 

Also, seems very difficult to get a +PNA.  

Had it in the July, August and even Sept. but so far this October it has been mostly  a - PNA. 

Last winter I also think it was negative for a significant amount of the time .

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

14 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The epo ridge there isn’t ideal...but I would worry more about the NAO verifying. If it does we would get opportunities in winter in that look. Last year the NAO kept verifying weaker and transient. That won’t cut it with the epo ridge centered off the west coast.  But even given that, we still managed several overinning type snows during that stretch just never the epic pattern we were teased with. With a legit NAO block that pattern can work. There would be some SE ridge at times but there would also be storms forced to slide under at times. I wouldn’t take the results in late October with significantly shorter wavelengths and cold to be indicative of what would happen in winter. 

Now all that said, the NAO has been like chasing a white whale lately so I would prefer a better pacific look where we didn’t need the NAO. But I am interested to see if the blocking comes to fruition this time and if it does during winter I wouldn’t be as concerned about the pacific ridge. 

Yeah it's early and too soon to get a good idea of the state/strength/location of the important features, and how exactly the pattern will set up for early winter. I was just commenting on a possible outcome, and one we experienced often last winter. Euro could be just exhibing its bias of dropping too much energy in the SW, if that is even an issue with its model physics anymore. Either way there is a bit of a battle in the LR. GEFS briefly does the same thing, but not to the same extent and it gets to a good looking pattern with a west-based block and eastern trough by the end of October.

[frd]

 

Ventrice got disgusted with folks saying the GEFS is correct and the EPS was wrong.  

I know last winter was a huge one up in the Northern Plains.  Denver where my daughter was had a great winter, blizzards and all.  

Hoping we do not repeat that pattern again, time to spread the wealth.  Again,  maybe we just require time to transition deeper into the Fall. 

No one has any real firm idea about the winter yet.  So many contrasting signals, and issue with sea ice, the ENSO, everything really.  

I even read that the QBO my not be a player for us here until very late in the winter, as it needs to descend further and even that is not a guarantee it will work  in concert with other players such as tropical forcing to provide the colder and snowier outcomes we wish for. 

 

 

 

[frd]

Wow to day 6 and 7. 

We are fighting our way out of this flash drought. 

 

Day 6 and 7 ...

 

 

 

 

 

[aldie 22]

I bet we have one more 80 in us...who is with me?

[wxdude64]

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I bet we have one more 80 in us...who is with me?

We haven't even made it to December yet

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah it's early and too soon to get a good idea of the state/strength/location of the important features, and how exactly the pattern will set up for early winter. I was just commenting on a possible outcome, and one we experienced often last winter. Euro could be just exhibing its bias of dropping too much energy in the SW, if that is even an issue with its model physics anymore. Either way there is a bit of a battle in the LR. GEFS briefly does the same thing, but not to the same extent and it gets to a good looking pattern with a west-based block and eastern trough by the end of October.

I wouldn’t use the results of a northeast pac ridge west based -NAO block pattern in late October to be indicative of what the results would be in January.  With broader wavelengths and much more cold available I would suspect things would play out different. 

We did fight that ridge last winter, but we also never got the NAO help we needed to offset it.  I don’t like seeing the ridge there but it’s been so long since we had a stable -NAO blocking pattern in mid winter that I think it’s easy to forget how that can mask other issues also. 

[Prestige Worldwide]

29 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I bet we have one more 80 in us...who is with me?

I’m in. Get us a nice death ridge and let’s roll with the 80s

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wouldn’t use the results of a northeast pac ridge west based -NAO block pattern in late October to be indicative of what the results would be in January.  With broader wavelengths and much more cold available I would suspect things would play out different. 

We did fight that ridge last winter, but we also never got the NAO help we needed to offset it.  I don’t like seeing the ridge there but it’s been so long since we had a stable -NAO blocking pattern in mid winter that I think it’s easy to forget how that can mask other issues also. 

I doubt anyone is counting on a stable west based -NAO for winter at this point lol. Lets just hope the Pacific isn't crap, and there are enough differences heading into winter this year to think it might not be. Ofc the tendency for a hostile Pac (wrt favorable EC cold/snow patterns) may simply be another component of the "new normal".

[frd]

11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Ofc the tendency for a hostile Pac (wrt favorable EC cold/snow patterns) may simply be another component of the "new normal".

That might be the the most insightful comment of this entire thread. 

The new normal is a challenge. And, to make matters worse,  it is ever-evolving. 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, frd said:

That might be the the most insightful comment of this entire thread. 

The new normal is a challenge. And, to make matters worse,  it is ever-evolving. 

Yeah I didn't want to get too off topic for this thread. Just a mention. And speculating what the pattern may look like for winter belongs in the other thread.

As for the immediate mid/long range, it will be interesting to see how the currently advertised pattern evolves on the models moving towards November. Some fairly significant differences between the GEFS and the EPS. I was just commenting in some previous posts that the EPS pattern depiction looks pretty familiar, but should it verify, it probably has little relevance wrt the actual pattern that sets up for early winter- ofc if you look at tomorrow's edition of the weeklies... lol.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I didn't want to get too off topic for this thread. Just a mention. And speculating what the pattern may look like for winter belongs in the other thread.

As for the immediate mid/long range, it will be interesting to see how the currently advertised pattern evolves on the models moving towards November. Some fairly significant differences between the GEFS and the EPS. I was just commenting in some previous posts that the EPS pattern depiction looks pretty familiar, but should it verify, it probably has little relevance wrt the actual pattern that sets up for early winter- ofc if you look at tomorrow's edition of the weeklies... lol.

Agreed. Just happy in the present to see the dry period come to an end.

Clarity regarding the early winter should be provided in the next few weeks .