frd Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: we have some monster ridging in scan pushing toward the pole. Check this out, really impressive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 I really hate wasting great Nov patterns 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Some decent thoughts here about the NAO from Webb, and what may happen. Plus, a quick one from HM on the same topic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, H2O said: I really hate wasting great Nov patterns Soon some will start tracking Oct storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: Some decent thoughts here about the NAO from Webb, and what may happen. Plus, a quick one from HM on the same topic. apparently Eric doesn't like cooler weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: apparently Eric doesn't like cooler weather I am surprised he posted something "positive " . Most of the things recently were negative. Being in the South I think, and maybe he is just tired of the warmth. Grown a little tired of hearing him focus on the roll forward MJO and the warmth coming for December. I will take a -NAO in December though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: I am surprised he posted something "positive " . Most of the things recently were negative. Being in the South I think, and maybe he is just tired of the warmth. Grown a little tired of hearing him focus on the roll forward MJO and the warmth coming for December. I will take a -NAO in December though. I think this is the year we revisit the December 5th snow...I miss those old days when we could count on that snow every year 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 2 hours ago, H2O said: I really hate wasting great Nov patterns This is a terrible pattern for snowstorms. I'd rather take my chances with CAD and the inland runner. Its cold/dry and warm/wet on steroids. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Front looks a little more juiced this 12z run. That’s call straw grabbing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Another thing I notice is each run of the GFS the cold is not as deep at the previous. We were at 516 few cycles ago now 534. It’s becoming less interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: Another thing I notice is each run of the GFS the cold is not as deep at the previous. We were at 516 few cycles ago now 534. It’s becoming less interesting. Gfs long range cold bias 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 37 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: This is a terrible pattern for snowstorms. I'd rather take my chances with CAD and the inland runner. Its cold/dry and warm/wet on steroids. Have only put two others on ignore for the winter throughout the years and they were after the 1'st of the year. And yet here we are a week into November and I am already putting you on ignore. Says a lot about your quality posting or should I say, lack of. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 GFS may be correct to moderate the cold and does have a bias toward cold in the LR. But, the euro has indicated a sub 520 several runs in a row. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: GFS may be correct to moderate the cold and does have a bias toward cold in the LR. But, the euro has indicated a sub 520 several runs in a row. That’s good enough for me. I’m not the GFS fan I used to be..it has led me down the primrose path one too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Is there warmth coming in December for sure? 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Is there warmth coming in December for sure? None of us are sure if we will wake up tomorrow morning...that said.... yes there is warmth coming in December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 A little twist here on time lines . When I watched a great webinar from BAMMWX a week ago they talked about how the PV was ahead in the progression versus some other years in their analog package and research. Also, the Siberian High is robust and off to a good start due to the abundance of Siberian snowfall. So, taken a step further everything happened so quickly , including the ramp up of the PV we are indeed ahead of historical timetables. ( per Webb - ahead by a month or so ) It is natural for the PV wanting to get stronger just as it is typical for it to undergo pressure and disruptions, which happens every year. The players are starting to work on the PV . Of course there is the lag to take into account. There are many outcomes possible in the next several weeks. HM's post for example. ( may not have to wait for a top down ) This post below is of interest and touches on this very thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 The PV should shatter early on and doom every month except for perhaps Late February/Early March before the sun angle moderates the flow. These are my official thoughts at the moment. Don't get depressed I am just one guy making a prediction but I feel it's strongly backed by the science and climate mode. As a disclaimer. The PV may not shatter but instead end up on the Siberian side. We all know how that works out for us. It's been a long time since that happened. In a strange twist it may be worse for us versus the PV going away completely due to the quasi resonance ridge pumping over the SE Conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 31 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: The PV should shatter early on and doom every month except for perhaps Late February/Early March before the sun angle moderates the flow. These are my official thoughts at the moment. Don't get depressed I am just one guy making a prediction but I feel it's strongly backed by the science and climate mode. As a disclaimer. The PV may not shatter but instead end up on the Siberian side. We all know how that works out for us. It's been a long time since that happened. In a strange twist it may be worse for us versus the PV going away completely due to the quasi resonance ridge pumping over the SE Conus. PV splitting with the more dominant lobe over Siberia and another slightly weaker lobe near Hudson Bay would not be a bad thing AT ALL. That is IF that scenario in fact occurs. One dominant TPV anchored over the Arctic circle does little good. Nor does the PV remaining in tact and propagating towards Siberia. We also in turn probably dont want to see the main PV anchor itself over or South of Hudson Bay overwhelming the area with cold like a Nina. Looking at the SPV and TPV progs along with SST data in the N Atl, the current state/forecast of ENSO, and low but slowly increasing (forecast) solar activity, I am a proponent of where the overall pattern, especially irt the N Pole, N Atl,and HL Blocking potential is headed over the next several weeks into the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro op Tuesday still giving light snow amounts along the m/d. But I'm more interested in day 7 /8 with looks to be enough cold air still left for a wintery scenario if we can get that low offshore. As it is with inland track still gets frozen up i81 for a time . Then by hr216 it's over se Jersey crushing W. MD A slow moving cutoff coastal would be fun rain or snow This is an example of the calendar working against us. There isn’t even a GLL to screw things up but the high in the plains is not cold enough and no CAD. Month from now same scenario might have better outcome. Cold rain is cool I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 That definitely has CAD.. but it is more like "Cool Air Damming" than the true "Cold Air Damming" - Still could have some sleety pellets at onset, especially in favored locations (kind of what the model is spitting out) - But, all in all, this looks like a cold rain. It is interesting nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 6 hours ago, Interstate said: Soon some will start tracking Oct storms. Happened out this way with Sandy. Mountains just to my SW got over 6 inches from it. High Res Euro is interesting for the 81 corridor next Friday. Just enough cold air left to get a little snow in the area before the flip to rain. Something to watch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 The Euro was wrong about next week from a distance also. Not sure we can place a lot of hope in any of them at 7+ especially this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Most have given up on Tuesday's storm but Eps has 35 /50 members give at least a trace to a couple inches for the meat part of the forum. I'll definitely track till at least Sunday. I mean....90 hrs out on a delicate setup . That’s at least a little encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 None of you know what you’re talking about and there’s no women in this forum anywhere because it’s a boys club where outsiders are condescended to. Have a good winter. Move north 2 4 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 That weenie emoji I believe has 2 meanings BTW. People should come to their own conclusion in how it’s being used on their posts. 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said: None of you know what you’re talking about and there’s no women in this forum anywhere because it’s a boys club where outsiders are condescended to. Have a good winter. Move north Can’t imagine why you would be having problems 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Most have given up on Tuesday's storm ( frontal passage)but Eps has 35 /50 members give at least a trace to a couple inches for the meat part of the forum. I'll definitely track till at least Sunday. I mean....90 hrs out on a delicate setup . Yeah, but you also track in late April, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The Euro was wrong about next week from a distance also. Not sure we can place a lot of hope in any of them at 7+ especially this time of year. Just like any other year, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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