mappy Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 I love that Jackpotville is a highly referenced place when comparing snow totals. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: something something, lock it up. Comparing between 0z, Jackpotville lost some snow, as well as a second maximum in SE VA, but overall a little more for most if not just equivalent. Definitely not a run that suggests the threat is over. its mid-november! if i got 1.5" next week from a passing cold front with crashing temps, I would be elated! take what you can get this early man. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: something something, lock it up. Comparing between 0z, Jackpotville lost some snow, as well as a second maximum in SE VA, but overall a little more for most if not just equivalent. Definitely not a run that suggests the threat is over. We abscond with that. I would take an inch of snow in a heartbeat in mid-November 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 laughed at "abscond" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 This EPS run actually brought back in a couple of higher end solutions, especially south. Reminds me of earlier GFS runs a little. Good chunk of members jackpot Hampton Rhodes, a couple of 10”ers in there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, yoda said: We abscond with that. I would take an inch of snow in a heartbeat in mid-November Be honest @yoda. We’d take it in the middle of January too and act like we didn’t care that it wasn’t 10”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Flipping through the individual members the eps leaves the door pretty wide open for possible outcomes. Some that look like the op but many 1 to 2 inchers with some more sizable ones sprinkled in also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 But how does that eps mean happen. If it’s because of one or two big totals then it doesn’t mean much at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Ggem and euro both flipped back to a more amplified primary low that cuts inland. Round and round we go. There is still enough spread within the ensembles that it could go either way, but if the lead northern stream wave ends up dominant that is probably the inevitable result. Its coming across too far north and out ahead of the cold push for our purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 For the Storm after the front.. Ensembles around the 15th looks interesting. Just saw a DT post on it.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But how does that eps mean happen. If it’s because of one or two big totals then it doesn’t mean much at all. I counted 20 thats gives dc 1" or more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: For the Storm after the front.. Ensembles around the 15th looks interesting. Just saw a DT post on it.. Aleet!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 It's always the storm after the storm! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's always the storm after the storm! And he said lower MA...that’s code for FU to anyone north of RIC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 There’s definitely some indications of a coastal low on the GEFS and Eps for next weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: There’s definitely some indications of a coastal low on the GEFS and Eps for next weekend. It would likely be rain, with the midweek cold going stale/moving out. I am down for a soaking rain though. It's starting to get a bit dry here again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It would likely be rain, with the midweek cold going stale/moving out. I am down for a soaking rain though. It's starting to get a bit dry here again. Yes, cold air would be getting stale for sure. 850 temps on both look chilly now, but if the low was closer to the coast, those could warm. General pattern on the ensembles as we move toward D10+ is to lose cross polar flow, but maintain a +PNA, so we could be BN but not in record territory like next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 I'm good with a wet pattern becoming consistent again. It's just a shame we won't have a winter now thanks to those winter outlooks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm good with a wet pattern becoming consistent again. It's just a shame we won't have a winter now thanks to those winter outlooks Well at least we know to keep our expectations low now since the experts have spoken. SE ridge shall dominate..we torcher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Well at least we know to keep our expectations low now since the experts have spoken. SE ridge shall dominate..we torcher. You got that right my brethren. We torch as one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Well at least we know to keep our expectations low now since the experts have spoken. SE ridge shall dominate..we torcher. Hope your new grass survives the winter torch...... keep watering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Just now, frd said: Hope your new grass survives the winter torch...... keep watering It's not going to survive the moles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: This EPS run actually brought back in a couple of higher end solutions, especially south. Reminds me of earlier GFS runs a little. Good chunk of members jackpot Hampton Rhodes, a couple of 10”ers in there. I can sympathize with them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But how does that eps mean happen. If it’s because of one or two big totals then it doesn’t mean much at all. Agreed. I am still thinking it is a Nov climo "event". Strong cold front with 15 minutes of snow. That is just normal for this time of year for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Well at least we know to keep our expectations low now since the experts have spoken. SE ridge shall dominate..we torcher. Good news is that seasonal forecasting is as accurate as the woolly worm dark patch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Overnight runs were pretty rough for the Tue/Wed possibilities. Wouldn't give up on it at this point but we have definitely seen a degrade in the look. The make or break day for me is roughly Sunday when we see how the models handle the energy in the different streams in western Canada. The following Friday has a little bit of potential but as has been mentioned we will be probably be dealing with stale cold where we need a manufacturing of cold (bombing low) or a fresh supply that is not evident on the models at this time. Looking at the EPS day 10/11 period has my interest somewhat (The previous Friday event will have a big say, think 50/50 low). Truth be told the whole period day 10 onward interests me. But we are talking the extended and the EPS is somewhat muddled on specific details but overall the pattern is favorable and we are seeing multiple pieces of NS energy diving down through this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 She gone lads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: She gone lads. It was good target practice anyway. Tracking season is well underway now so getting ready to play the long game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Just a thought...not an expectation. Looking at the pattern relaxing just a bit in the long range with the higher heights in AK breaking down. Basically the same pattern we are in now but less anomalous. I could envision that Aleutian low pumping heights back up in AK but now we have some monster ridging in scan pushing toward the pole. If the Aleutian low plays nice you can see how a true ridge bridge could form pretty quickly and really get the pattern cranking by early Dec. EPS is close to pulling this off at the end of the run. GEFS are outside in the yard playing soccer with a football bat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, poolz1 said: ust a thought...not an expectation. Looking at the pattern relaxing just a bit in the long range with the higher heights in AK breaking down. Basically the same pattern we are in now but less anomalous. I could envision that Aleutian low pumping heights back up in AK but now we have some monster ridging in scan pushing toward the pole. If the Aleutian low plays nice you can see how a true ridge bridge could form pretty quickly and really get the pattern cranking by early Dec. EPS is close to pulling this off at the end of the run. GEFS are outside in the yard playing soccer with a football bat. There are signs that a real - NAO may get going to extend the colder pattern in the NE later in November. There always has been talk that later November/early December it could occur. Looks of retrogression in the pattern along with several indicators such as the MJO, Aleutian low, Scand block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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