Scraff Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Who’s got the Panasonic? How about the Cras? I hear its snow for days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 I know we only care how much electronic snow falls in each model run, but that was a fairly large shift on the euro. Up until this run, next week’s storm was all northern stream energy, with nothing coming out of that Baja cutoff low. GFS brings out all that energy and phases it, hence the 6z solution. What you see now in all the 12z runs (euro, gfs, and GGEM) is some of that energy coming out and phasing/partially phasing with the northern stream energy. Euro keeps the 2 pieces most separate while the North American models partially phase. Any sort of phase raises the boom/bust scenario up a notch or two. But also phasing is complicated, so don’t expect any sort of locked in scenario anytime soon. The simplest solution for first flakes for us continues to be a northern stream only vort passage that drops some light snow. I’m skeptical of a wound up inland cutter right now, but with the icon, ukie, and a handful of GEFS members showing it, I suppose it can’t be discounted yet. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 18z GFS at 120 looking good with a monster 1050 High overtop the Canadian Pairies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Happy hour GFS not going to make many friends south of Jackpotville. Time to open up the Panic Room? Thankfully this is preseason so I’m sure we’ll all react rationally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Almost a total miss on the GFS. Folks, we’re back! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Ahhh back to reality....lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Ahhh back to reality....lol Lol. We’re getting into shape for the winter! The run wasn’t that far off from giving something decent though if we set our bar at just seeing flakes from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Anybody peep the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Happy hour sucks! Someone else pick up the tab. I’ll grab your drinks and nachos next time... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Happy hour sucks! Someone else pick up the tab. I’ll grab your drinks and nachos next time... Doesn't suck for me. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 itshappening.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 We a long way from knowing how this plays out. One wave, or 2? Wound up cutter? I just can't get excited about it because, well, climo. If I lived in Canaan, yeah I would be totally into it. If I see a few flakes in the air here before Nov 15th, it's a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Happy hour looks quite similar to the euro. Basically noise level change from 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 This looks like waves riding a frontal boundary to me. I could be wrong as I profess no expertise. If that’s the case we would seem to be depending on that front getting far enough south of us but not too far. Depending on the models to not overdo how far south it gets is a problem it would seem as that seems to be consistently over done. Timing of the waves with the boundary in the right place would then come into play. it could work out great I suppose but not sure I’d hang a hat on this one even if it were later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Who do I have to ban around here to get an EPS update?! I got a symphony to write. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 DT is in. Sort of. As long as the euro is. https://m.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/first-snow-for-some-tuesday-nov-12-seems-a-good-bet/2543156095731633/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Who do I have to ban around here to get an EPS update?! I got a symphony to write. Don't have the skills for analysis but here is the mean. Could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Who do I have to ban around here to get an EPS update?! I got a symphony to write. Don’t know about individual members, but the 144hr EPS mean map on TT looked decent. 850 0C line just N/W of the metro corridor with low off the coast. But can see there’s still quite a bit of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Don't have the skills for analysis but here is the mean. Could be worse. Terrible. Why would you even show me this!?! I’m banning you. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Who do I have to ban around here to get an EPS update?! I got a symphony to write. Canst thou make thee 10th symphony of Beethoven about snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Don't have the skills for analysis but here is the mean. Could be worse. lol it sucks. But to be expected given its early Nov. Keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 That is a mean of over a half inch of snow from the EPS. That's impressive for November, let alone early-mid Nov! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol it sucks. But to be expected given its early Nov. Keep expectations in check. I haven’t seen all the Eps snow means for this event, but isn’t this among the best or the best yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Canst thou make thee 10th symphony of Beethoven about snow? He cannot...why? Because Beethoven already had ideas about his 10th before he died! It would have to be an 11th...lol (sorry, couldn't resist putting my music nerd hat on!) It Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I haven’t seen all the Eps snow means for this event, but isn’t this among the best or the best yet? It has generally been about the same for several runs, but there have been better. It is splitting hairs though for a mean. The 0z run had an inch+ for DC to Dover through 0z Thursday, compared to 0.7" for the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It has generally been about the same for several runs, but there have been better. It is splitting hairs though for a mean. The 0z run had an inch+ for DC to Dover through 0z Thursday, compared to 0.7" for the 12z run. Ok. Yeah, that’s hair splitting at D7. Still having a storm and keeping us in the game is the goal at this range. Particularly in November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 From my limited resources it sure looks like the 18z gfs end members are really trying to blow this thing up and cut it right over us or to our west. Doesn’t look like a lot of good snow chances in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 After we finish shoveling Tuesday.....Day 10/11 on the Eps definitely hinting at a coastal .The OP has also shown this possiblity a run or 2 . Snow on Snow The CMC ens I posted as a joke in the Digital Snow Thread really like that one, actually. That’s where it gets the multiple MECS/HECS from. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Looking forward to when we can begin NAM extrapolations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Great to be tracking again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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