mappy Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 26 minutes ago, mattie g said: And Twitter doesn't count! i tried to attach the image here, but it wouldn't let me. so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: November snow is so common for jackpotville they don’t even think it’s worth posting here! nope. see my post to mattie. appreciate the sass though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, mappy said: i tried to attach the image here, but it wouldn't let me. so Yeah, yeah...nice try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: Yeah, yeah...nice try. why would i lie about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 From Don S. taken with the notion that we are not really sure about the next three weeks and how the PDO might change along with possible blocking, as Don mentions. I personally feel that the record IOD , + PMM , less sea ice over vast areas North of Alaska and other factors point to possibly normal December temp wise. but only speculation at this point. However, as with the upcoming extremely cold and anomalous air mass we could snap the rubber band and go in the opposite direction resulting in warmth returning for a while in December , the extent and duration is again pure speculation. From Don S recent post ( just a section of it ) from the NYC forum : <<< Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. >>>>> 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Don't see this every day. https://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/120102-cold-pattern-shows-staying-power-as-natural-gas-futures-continue-climbing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Euro brought back a little light snow next Monday and nobody posted it? Guess we don't have to worry about Ji posting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Back - trajectories - pretty cool. For this Sat AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: From Don S. taken with the notion that we are not really sure about the next three weeks and how the PDO might change along with possible blocking, as Don mentions. I personally feel that the record IOD , + PMM , less sea ice over vast areas North of Alaska and other factors point to possibly normal December temp wise. but only speculation at this point. However, as with the upcoming extremely cold and anomalous air mass we could snap the rubber band and go in the opposite direction resulting in warmth returning for a while in December , the extent and duration is again pure speculation. From Don S recent post ( just a section of it ) from the NYC forum : <<< Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. >>>>> That is exactly what my analogs focused on (cool east Pac and warmer west-central Pac). I also expect a warm December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 18 hours ago, frd said: An upper air feature, low pressure disturbance, that move out of far W/NW Canada going SE ( quickly ) and passes over the province of Manitoba, Canada. These features can at times drop far enough to our South and Southeast to spawn cyclogenesis. If they drop far enough to our South and the pattern is conducive they can develop into powerful East Coast snowstorms. Sometimes these storms can even stall or loop as they move NE along the Eastern Seaboard dropping feet of snow. This diving system out of Canada shares common characteristics with Alberta clippers and even Saskatchewan Screamers. The name given simply implies the location they pass over. Great link https://www.9and10news.com/2011/01/03/alberta-clipper-saskatchewan-screamer-manitoba-mauler/ Thanks for all the detail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 16 minutes ago, frd said: Back - trajectories - pretty cool. For this Sat AM. Cross polar flow this early in the year is always nice to see. I just hope we don't empty the clip and somehow reset to a blistering SE ridge for the meat of winter. At the very least this should kick up a good amount of lake effect and start freezing up Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Lol at the CMC. I'll take me 8 to 12 and like it. Don't want to post the snow map here. I'll post it over in the preseason fantasy snow thread. Edit- for next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 12z UKMET looks a lil interesting at Day 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 45 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I just hope we don't empty the clip and somehow reset to a blistering SE ridge for the meat of winter. Well................................... this might empty the clip .......j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 26 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lol at the CMC. I'll take me 8 to 12 and like it. Don't want to post the snow map here. I'll post it over in the preseason fantasy snow thread. Edit- for next Tuesday Ah, that crazy Canadian. I love me some digital snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 20 minutes ago, frd said: Well................................... this might empty the clip .......j/k Already posted about this... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 36 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ah, that crazy Canadian. I love me some digital snow. Obviously it’s probably wrong, but it seems to have been doing pretty well of late relative to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 3 hours ago, yoda said: Guess we don't have to worry about Ji posting it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Obviously it’s probably wrong, but it seems to have been doing pretty well of late relative to the gfs. That's not a high bar these days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Already posted about this... Brought it up in the context of a somewhat similar occurrence, a few years ago when a extremely powerful cyclone went up into the NE Pac. Was all over the media and social feeds. Sorry for not including the reference. Was thinking about it and forget to include it in my post. Anyways, there was talk that winter that it could have messed up the AO domain because of over pumping the heights and messing things up in general. However, IF it was the Fall of 2015 and it was the Bering Sea Bomb then that following Jan we had the spike down in the AO and the Blizzard in an otherwise crap winter. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2016/01/supplemental/page-5 So take from that what you may. Overall speculation about any future outcomes pending the recurve as Webb mentions. Oh, just to mention in 2014 there was Nuri https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_2014_Bering_Sea_cyclone I found this link https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/14/bering-sea-bomb-cyclone-ties-record-for-strongest-storm-in-north-pacific/ Dec. 14, 2015 at 2:51 p.m. EST The Bering Sea west of Alaska hosted a whopping storm system over the weekend, with sustained winds equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane and gusts up to 115 mph. Having dropped 49 millibars between Saturday and Sunday, the incredible Aleutian cyclone constitutes a meteorological “bomb” — a storm that drops at least 24 millibars in 24 hours — more than twice over. Early Sunday morning, the storm’s central pressure finally bottomed out at 924 millibars, tying the record for lowest wintertime pressure in the North Pacific Ocean since records began in the winter of 1969-1970. The previous strongest storm in this region occurred just one year ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Yo Randy @stormtracker, clean yer crap out of the bus and get it warmed up! Euro snows us next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Euro is a go for a light-moderate event with marginal temps for Tuesday. Would be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yo Randy @stormtracker, clean yer crap out of the bus and get it warmed up! Euro snows us next week. yup, I just saw it. Only 2 more days before it disappears! I'm keeping the bus parked. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Euro has DC at 18 degrees for next Wednesday morning, that would be very cold for mid November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Oy, an early start to the madness this year. Better hurry and get that Panic Room opened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Euro has DC at 18 degrees for next Wednesday morning, that would be very cold for mid November. Would smash the record low at DCA by 4 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 EPS will be interesting to see if the OP is on crack or maybe somewhat in the ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 GEFS longwave pattern is pretty gorgeous through the entire run if you like cold and snow chances. Really hope we get looks like this next month and beyond. Eastern trough locked in with -AO and +PNA. And some hints of a continued active pattern. A move toward the euro solution for next weeks possible event as well. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Yo Randy @stormtracker, clean yer crap out of the bus and get it warmed up! Euro snows us next week. So we going with the CMC/EURO combination for Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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