October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

[mattie g]

Let’s see if we can spy an actual unicorn by the time we get to All Hallow’s Eve.

[WxUSAF]

I’d love a solid raining nor’easter with temps in the 40s or 50s

[mattie g]

52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d love a solid raining nor’easter with temps in the 40s or 50s

I normally hate that S, but I’d be down with it. Would be kind of fun to track it from a week or so out.

[Cobalt]

 

[frd]

@WxUSAF  the trend is your friend

I like this, and as Dave mentions for two reasons, one we need the rain and for winter to produce we really need to get some coastal action going into the fall .

 

[frd]

Rather impressive to say the least 

 

 

[Winter Wizard]

Pretty stark contrast between last night's 0z GEFS and EPS runs for next week. EPS is much weaker with the troughing over the central US, which allows the southeast ridge to flex its muscles out ahead of it and torches the east through the 17th. The GEFS meanwhile continues to show a strong trough over the northern Plains that gradually moves east, which would put us solidly below normal through the 19th or so. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, Winter Wizard said:

Pretty stark contrast between last night's 0z GEFS and EPS runs for next week. EPS is much weaker with the troughing over the central US, which allows the southeast ridge to flex its muscles out ahead of it and torches the east through the 17th. The GEFS meanwhile continues to show a strong trough over the northern Plains that gradually moves east, which would put us solidly below normal through the 19th or so. 

Heard this has to do with the recurving typhoon and this time the West chills and snows and the reaction in the East is building warmth. I read , as you know , you don't always get a trough in the East just because there is a recurving West Pac typhoon. 

[mattie g]

10/15 06z GFS puts us in the cooler pretty much from 180 through the end of the run with a big ridge out west and trough in the east. It'll likely modify somewhat between now and then, but it's definitely chock full of reinforcing cool shots throughout that time.

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, mattie g said:

10/15 06z GFS puts us in the cooler pretty much from 180 through the end of the run with a big ridge out west and trough in the east. It'll likely modify somewhat between now and then, but it's definitely chock full of reinforcing cool shots throughout that time.

GEFS and EPS both supportive of some cold shots in the last 5-7 days of the month.  Something to keep in mind this winter is that the new GFS has a distinct cold bias at long ranges.  It's going to really tease us I expect.  But I think first frost/freeze for the 'burbs at least looking quite possible before Halloween.

[mattie g]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS and EPS both supportive of some cold shots in the last 5-7 days of the month.  Something to keep in mind this winter is that the new GFS has a distinct cold bias at long ranges.  It's going to really tease us I expect.  But I think first frost/freeze for the 'burbs at least looking quite possible before Halloween.

Yeah...that long-range cold bias has definitely been noticeable, but it's certainly easy enough to account for it.

00z was even chillier - got freezes into the cities (or at least the near-in suburbs). If this look sticks around, I fully agree with you and wouldn't be shocked if we do see a freeze before Halloween. Which would only make sense since I went for much later dates in the contest this year.

[Rtd208]

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Long range Gfs busting out a October 29, 2011 redux of sorts at 0z lol. 

 

Nooooooooooo...there goes winter.

[CAPE]

Absolute pig of a block on the 6z GFS for late month.Would likely be some snow showers in the mountains with that look but any coastal development would probably be well offshore.

 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Absolute pig of a block on the 6z GFS for late month.Would likely be some snow showers in the mountains with that look but any coastal development would probably be well offshore.

Move that block about 400 miles to the WSW in another 45 days and we're in business.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Nooooooooooo...there goes winter.

 

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Nah...that's urban legend.  I don't believe in that nonsense.  I'll take snow anytime I can get it 

Correlation and causation aren’t the same. There are so few examples of super early season snowfall outside the mountains that it’s hard to place any statistical significance on it. Yes “most” years where there was snow very early ended up not good. But when roughly 60% of all winters end up “not good” AND there are only a handful of examples in that data set...its impossible to say there is causation.  Imo it’s just random chance more than anything. 

Look at 1995/96, we had snow in November. What if that cold shot has been just a week earlier?  Somehow there is a magic date that changes everything in seasonal progression?  In 2002/3 it snowed in October just to our NW. So if that storm had tracked 100 miles further south it means that winter would have sucked?  I don’t buy it. It’s just a fluke combined with the fact most winters suck so anything can look predictive of a bad winter. 

[CAPE]

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Correlation and causation aren’t the same. There are so few examples of super early season snowfall outside the mountains that it’s hard to place any statistical significance on it. Yes “most” years where there was snow very early ended up not good. But when roughly 60% of all winters end up “not good” AND there are only a handful of examples in that data set...its impossible to say there is causation.  Imo it’s just random chance more than anything. 

Look at 1995/96, we had snow in November. What if that cold shot has been just a week earlier?  Somehow there is a magic date that changes everything in seasonal progression?  In 2002/3 it snowed in October just to our NW. So if that storm had tracked 100 miles further south it means that winter would have sucked?  I don’t buy it. It’s just a fluke combined with the fact most winters suck so anything can look predictive of a bad winter. 

Good post. 100% agree.

[poolz1]

I think an argument can be made that the same tropical forcing that produces a cold east coast in the fall can create opposite results in the winter months.  A phase 5/6 in Oct typically means below avg temps but roll those same phases forward and we torch.  Fortunately, we are cycling through phases 1/2 with no real sign of heading toward the warmer phases....carry this forward and it will be a real positive for winter.  So, maybe there is something to be said about early season cold/snow but like everything else its more complicated than just a blanket statement of early snow = winter torch.

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I think an argument can be made that the same tropical forcing that produces a cold east coast in the fall can create opposite results in the winter months.  A phase 5/6 in Oct typically means below avg temps but roll those same phases forward and we torch.  Fortunately, we are cycling through phases 1/2 with no real sign of heading toward the warmer phases....carry this forward and it will be a real positive for winter.  So, maybe there is something to be said about early season cold/snow but like everything else its more complicated than just a blanket statement of early snow = winter torch.

If the pattern is MJO driven, then yes. But the MJO wave configuration can shift from season to season also.  Other patterns don't necessarily shift seasonally the same way as consistently either.  My main point was that snowfall is so fluky and rare in the mid atlantic in October and early November that using that alone to be predictive of a bad winter is problematic.  Having a cold "favorable" looking pattern early in the season might be a better way to look at it, and those results are more mixed.  Like I pointed out before 1995 and 2002 both started off early with a cold look that then lasted right through much of the winter.   Other years started off mild and that lasted right through the winter.  Then there are plenty of years that were variable and the pattern in October into November was absolutely no indication of what would come.  What I would definitely agree with is that having early snow is in no way predictive of a good winter coming.  But I would stop short of saying it is predictive of a bad winter either.  

[poolz1]

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the pattern is MJO driven, then yes. But the MJO wave configuration can shift from season to season also.  Other patterns don't necessarily shift seasonally the same way as consistently either.  My main point was that snowfall is so fluky and rare in the mid atlantic in October and early November that using that alone to be predictive of a bad winter is problematic.  Having a cold "favorable" looking pattern early in the season might be a better way to look at it, and those results are more mixed.  Like I pointed out before 1995 and 2002 both started off early with a cold look that then lasted right through much of the winter.   Other years started off mild and that lasted right through the winter.  Then there are plenty of years that were variable and the pattern in October into November was absolutely no indication of what would come.  What I would definitely agree with is that having early snow is in no way predictive of a good winter coming.  But I would stop short of saying it is predictive of a bad winter either.  

Very good point.  And I wasn't necessarily disagreeing with you....It would probably take too much time/effort researching the mjo for the years you mentioned. I would like to  see how it progressed as we went through winter and how much of a driver it was.  2011 also would be interesting.   Im curious but with the current advertised look in the LR i'll just enjoy the cool fall weather coming and see how things progress over the next 4 weeks.

 

[CAPE]

Interesting h5 look at hour 222 on the 12z GFS.

[yoda]

11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Interesting h5 look at hour 222 on the 12z GFS.

does look nice but then opens up and becomes a cutter... but right after brings a nice cold shot

[yoda]

Yes please

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

does look nice but then opens up and becomes a cutter... but right after brings a nice cold shot

Plenty of potential during that period for an early season "winter like" event. Not saying frozen for the lowlands, but with the type of pattern being advertised, a snow event for the mountains of W MD and WV is a possibility.

[mattie g]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS agrees... but moves it far enough to our SE that it doesn't affect our region... hits SE VA pretty hard

If you're referring to the one for this coming Sunday, then that has trended quite a bit NW and stronger over the last few runs.

[mattie g]

Love seeing the multiple coastals setting up on the mid- and long-ranges. Really impressive pattern change - like a switch flipped and off we go!

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Love seeing the multiple coastals setting up on the mid- and long-ranges. Really impressive pattern change - like a switch flipped and off we go!

Just have to hope that there is a decent amount of cold air nearby and we are good for blast off into winter

[CAPE]

0z GEFS has a perfectly placed west-based block centered over the Davis Strait at the end of the month. 0z EPS is very similar, but with the highest heights a bit further east, and an even more impressive look in the EPAC. Pretty strong signal for early season cold. This is like practice- let's see if these very favorable advertised h5 looks actually verify - and hopefully we see these same looks on the LR ens guidance a month or so from now.

[poolz1]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

0z GEFS has a perfectly placed west-based block centered over the Davis Strait at the end of the month. 0z EPS is very similar, but with the highest heights a bit further east, and an even more impressive look in the EPAC. Pretty strong signal for early season cold. This is like practice- let's see if these very favorable advertised h5 looks actually verify - and hopefully we see these same looks on the LR ens guidance a month or so from now.

Good to see both models becoming more robust in the medium range with that block.  This is the timeframe we usually see things start to become muted and then fade.  But man, that closed ridge on the GEFS is a bute clark!

[frd]

 The association that we once thought was so important has certainly  faded in the last 4 to 5 years. 

I really started to doubt the importance of this when one fall we had  an incredible October Siberian  snow cover advance and a then a flat AO and NAO in the months ahead.

The following Feb.  Judah stated the October advance was actually too fast and because of that the anticipated blocking never developed.  Huh....

Maybe we need a shake up and I see no concerns about the Siberian snow cover  presently. 

I am more interested  in the Pac including Pac forcing,  PDO  and the  IOD, etc.including the QBO for the upcoming winter. Also, very interested in seeing how November plays out. Would like to see some West Coast ridging and the Davis Straights block to really develop and a continuation of a stormy and active pattern in the East. 

 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, frd said:

 The association that we once thought was so important has certainly  faded in the last 4 to 5 years. 

I really started to doubt the importance of this when one fall we had  an incredible October Siberian  snow cover advance and a then a flat AO and NAO in the months ahead.

The following Feb.  Judah stated the October advance was actually too fast and because of that the anticipated blocking never developed.  Huh....

Maybe we need a shake up and I see no concerns about the Siberian snow cover  presently. 

I am more interested  in the Pac including Pac forcing,  PDO  and the  IOD, etc.including the QBO for the upcoming winter. Also, very interested in seeing how November plays out. Would like to see some West Coast ridging and the Davis Straights block to really develop and a continuation of a stormy and active pattern in the East. 

 

 

That dude is at least half full of shiit. Some might even say his SAI theory is akin to selling snake oil. Always an excuse when it fails, and then he manages to take credit when it turns out cold and snowy despite the SAI/AO correlation not working out.