WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Op Euro doesn’t look nearly as warm on Turkey day as the GFS. Just something I noticed compared to even 0z. But I am looking at crappy h5 plots on TT Euro has highs near 50/low 50s. Seasonal. Gfs is near 60. GGEM is mid 40s. GEFS close to euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has highs near 50/low 50s. Seasonal. Gfs is near 60. GGEM is mid 40s. GEFS close to euro. Thanks for the confirmation. That works ok. I was thinking incoming torch simply because if that cutter storm winds up..well you know the rest. But maybe we avoid it...still 8 days..wont get married to any solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 19 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Thanks for the confirmation. That works ok. I was thinking incoming torch simply because if that cutter storm winds up..well you know the rest. But maybe we avoid it...still 8 days..wont get married to any solution All depends on timing of the frontal passage. We will torch ahead of that front it seems, although maybe just for 12-24 hours. Air behind the front looks seasonal, not particularly cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Haven't been able to look at much guidance but looks like the weekend storm is still a possibility . Euro runs a primary up through WV and there looks like a redevelopment off Va. Beach . If we can get any primary from reaching that far north maybe we could get a small wintery event. Saturday appears pretty chilly leading in then the mid and upper level temps get eroded until the coastal takes over leaving us with possibly some mini coma head spits of qpf per Euro. Parts of Pa gets some minor accumulation verbatim. Definitely worth tracking . A couple variables are how far south does the Fri morning FP get and timing of the Saturday system moving in . But ultimately I'm just keying in on the track for now FWIW, on EURO at 12z, storm depicted on ky/tn border today compared to mid ky yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: @Wonderdog Just Comparing to the 0z run ...today at h5 is more neutral with the trough orientation vs 0z which was more positive. Primary definitely makes it further north this run and it's an overall stronger system as it hits the coast . Would love for that sw ejecting energy to come a bit further se before trying to turn the corner but then it could also slide off exit stage right . That system in January would most likely be a winter storm of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: @Wonderdog Just Comparing to the 0z run ...today at h5 is more neutral with the trough orientation vs 0z which was more positive. Primary definitely makes it further north this run and it's an overall stronger system as it hits the coast . Would love for that sw ejecting energy to come a bit further se before trying to turn the corner but then it could also slide off exit stage right . Unless I'm reading it incorrectly, it's 12 hours later. Or maybe earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 I am again liking the progression for Thanksgiving if nothing else but to avoid AN temps. And avoid turning on AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Just an FYI DT (WxRisk) final winter outlook will be issued this Friday according to a Facebook post he made earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: P002 + Control have pretty good similarities with Dec 10 th 1992 . 92 dug in a bit deeper. It's obviously a couple weeks earlier but pretty cool stuff . I've memorized alot of h5 setups in the Kocin books and thought a few members looked familiar . 92' was a mauling in Western Md and roughly 4-8 " around here . What a wicked setup in 92 . 18z Gefs Hr 204 Wait a minute...that’s T-day...ok we’ll take it. Lots more runs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Interesting discrepancy between the new GFS and the GEFS for the weekend storm. GEFS emphatically says it goes under us while GFD cuts it west. Wonder how the new dynamical core is playing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just looking at the 850 anomaly for T-day looks solidly chilly based on the GEFS...at 198hrs...that is my short term focus right now. h5 looks so interesting to me also at 198hrs yet the surface is not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Interesting discrepancy between the new GFS and the GEFS for the weekend storm. GEFS emphatically says it goes under us while GFD cuts it west. Wonder how the new dynamical core is playing here. Wow. Never seen it like that before. Just about all of the members that I can see at PSU take it under to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Wow. Never seen it like that before. Just about all of the members that I can see at PSU take it under to the coast. Any frozen precip in the members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Any frozen precip in the members? Can’t really tell. Just precip maps and thickness contours. My guess some of them might produce high elevation winter wx. Temps are just too warm for much other than that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Just looking at the 850 anomaly for T-day looks solidly chilly based on the GEFS...at 198hrs...that is my short term focus right now. h5 looks so interesting to me also at 198hrs yet the surface is not. Strong agreement for a pretty strong storm cutting west leading into Turkey day. Right now it looks like the front will clear just before or on Thanksgiving. Delay that a little and the holiday could be really warm. Personally, I don't care one way or the other. If it's warm then fine and if it's cold then better. We'll have a clear view of early Dec by then and that's 100% of my focus. I'm warming up to the idea of a broad conus trough with enough blocking help to make it interesting. GFS/GEFS are going hog wild with a nasty -EPO ridge popping and a lot of ens members are showing cold to very cold temps in the conus stretching from the intermountain west to the east coast. GEFS has nearly unanimous agreement for a pretty stout -NAO building D5+. I'm impressed with how this month is shaking out and agree with PSU about how there seems to be some persistence building with features that have been sorely missing for quite a few years now. Majority of our snow events happen with a flawed pattern. Early Dec doesn't look like a perfect pattern or anything but so far it sure looks like one that can work out to me. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Strong agreement for a pretty strong storm cutting west leading into Turkey day. Right now it looks like the front will clear just before or on Thanksgiving. Delay that a little and the holiday could be really warm. Personally, I don't care one way or the other. If it's warm then fine and if it's cold then better. We'll have a clear view of early Dec by then and that's 100% of my focus. I'm warming up to the idea of a broad conus trough with enough blocking help to make it interesting. GFS/GEFS are going hog wild with a nasty -EPO ridge popping and a lot of ens members are showing cold to very cold temps in the conus stretching from the intermountain west to the east coast. GEFS has nearly unanimous agreement for a pretty stout -NAO building D5+. I'm impressed with how this month is shaking out and agree with PSU about how there seems to be some persistence building with features that have been sorely missing for quite a few years now. Majority of our snow events happen with a flawed pattern. Early Dec doesn't look like a perfect pattern or anything but so far it sure looks like one that can work out to me. This is an example of a look that probably won’t work in November but repeat this in winter with a more suppressed jet and broader wavelengths and that block/50/50 combo to our north could bully the mediocre pacific pattern in our favor. It would be difficult for anything to cut in that look mid winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 i noticed the storm for next week while still rain for us...did trend south and east quite a bit and now is threatning the ohio valley with wintry mix on the euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Strong agreement for a pretty strong storm cutting west leading into Turkey day. Right now it looks like the front will clear just before or on Thanksgiving. Delay that a little and the holiday could be really warm. Personally, I don't care one way or the other. If it's warm then fine and if it's cold then better. We'll have a clear view of early Dec by then and that's 100% of my focus. I'm warming up to the idea of a broad conus trough with enough blocking help to make it interesting. GFS/GEFS are going hog wild with a nasty -EPO ridge popping and a lot of ens members are showing cold to very cold temps in the conus stretching from the intermountain west to the east coast. GEFS has nearly unanimous agreement for a pretty stout -NAO building D5+. I'm impressed with how this month is shaking out and agree with PSU about how there seems to be some persistence building with features that have been sorely missing for quite a few years now. Majority of our snow events happen with a flawed pattern. Early Dec doesn't look like a perfect pattern or anything but so far it sure looks like one that can work out to me. Is the SOI crashing during the last week and is that a precursor to a moderate or strong -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 29 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Is the SOI crashing during the last week and is that a precursor to a moderate or strong -NAO? I generally don't pay much attention to the SOI honestly. However, very unlikely for there to be a direct connect to the NAO. The only reliable precursor I know of for predicting a -NAO in the future is to have one in the present. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Add Mr. Nam. Barely gets the low in Tennessee before jumping to central NC . Well se of alot of guidance. Longgg range nam but... I could see your area getting something..just not cold enough but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Gfs seems to be moving the Saturday system ever so slowly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Nice 33 degree rain next Saturday on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 12z EURO for Sunday has a 995mb SLP over Delmarva at 12z SUN... sounds rainy lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Probably a very windy Thanksgiving Day down here with that 7 level closed contour h5 and 986mb SLP in ME... check out the 850mb winds... 70 kts just off the deck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Even Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving, looks pretty windy with 70-75 kt 850mb winds per the 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 The Sunday system would be a nice snowstorm if this were a month later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 35 minutes ago, yoda said: Probably a very windy Thanksgiving Day down here with that 7 level closed contour h5 and 986mb SLP in ME... check out the 850mb winds... 70 kts just off the deck That sucks for the parade balloons in NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The Sunday system would be a nice snowstorm if this were a month later. I'm going with "winter showing its hand" as to the the base state and storm track....this is just a pre-season warmup for the main show! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Looks like a decent soaker incoming after some light rain today.. Maybe an inch+. Been dry lately so no complaints other than I have a lot of outside stuff to get done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like a decent soaker incoming after some light rain today.. Maybe an inch+. Been dry lately so no complaints other than I have a lot of outside stuff to get done. Honestly I'm pretty optimistic seeing the wet coming in with some consistency. I personally believe getting that first then have cold come works best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now