cbmclean Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea he skews warm Right now ( I mean this past decade) reality is skewing warm. I think that frustrates most people on this forum, which makes us quick to lash out. I know I constantly have to fight against a natural desire to pay attention when someone predicts "COLD COLD", but dismiss those saying "WARM, WARM" as idiots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: Right now ( I mean this past decade) reality is skewing warm. I think that frustrates most people on this forum, which makes us quick to lash out. I know I constantly have to fight against a natural desire to pay attention when someone predicts "COLD COLD", but dismiss those saying "WARM, WARM" as idiots. I won’t name names because there is nothing wrong with this, but some of the seasonal forecasters with the higher scores tend to go chalk and predict what climo says is likely most of the time. Fact is our current climo says we have a below avg snow winter 65-70% of the time. Take non nino years (yea mod nino is the winner but even weak and strong ones up the chances of a + climo year some) and the chances are like 90% we go below climo. In the last 25 non nino winters going back to 1984...only 2 have been +climo. 1996 and 2014. So basically if you predicted above avg snow every nino and below to avg every other winter you will have had a 84% verification score in the last 37 years. I could do that. Anyone could do that. But 1996 and 2014 did happen. And climo runs in cycles and you never know when it will shift. So just going climo every year you will miss the anomalies. It’s also no fun and I am in this for run. If my job depended on it I probably would go climo and pimp my great success rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I won’t name names because there is nothing wrong with this, but some of the seasonal forecasters with the higher scores tend to go chalk and predict what climo says is likely most of the time. Fact is our current climo says we have a below avg snow winter 65-70% of the time. Take non nino years (yea mod nino is the winner but even weak and strong ones up the chances of a + climo year some) and the chances are like 90% we go below climo. In the last 25 non nino winters going back to 1984...only 2 have been +climo. 1996 and 2014. So basically if you predicted above avg snow every nino and below to avg every other winter you will have had a 84% verification score in the last 37 years. I could do that. Anyone could do that. But 1996 and 2014 did happen. And climo runs in cycles and you never know when it will shift. So just going climo every year you will miss the anomalies. It’s also no fun and I am in this for run. If my job depended on it I probably would go climo and pimp my great success rate. This sounds like textbook advertisement for setting one's expectations based on the median instead of the mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 5 hours ago, cbmclean said: This sounds like textbook advertisement for setting one's expectations based on the median instead of the mean. I’ve lead that crusade plenty of times during years where the whining about what is really just a typical winter is getting out of hand. But most of the culprits of that whining don’t want to hear it. Probably because they aren’t happy with what a “typical” winter here is (admittedly our median kinda sucks) and that want to be able to whine and complain with righteous indignation 70% of the time as if the universe spit in their eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Boy this guy Webb is really something else. He is posting at the 33 forum at 3:30 am about the 00z GEFS/EPS being warmer to support his ideas which may or may not be correct but he just has this inherent need to be right and prove everyone else who doesn't support his ideas is wrong. He even seems to get a bit argumentative at times. I mean wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Since we are jumping on every model run, let’s jump on the gfs for Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 DT (WxRisk). Winter weather lovers won't like it but there may be some hope for the second half of December which is discussed in the last few minutes of the video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 6z GEFS looks good thru 240 still imo given calendar date. PAC looks to want to reload towards the end of that period. NAO ridging is evident both surface and 500mb with some hp ridging beginning to develop late in that period N of Alaska. Whether right or wrong looks like avg mid/late Nov weather to me at worst thru 240 with a balance of positives in both the Atl and Pac sides. If you want to sneak peek past that period which isnt usually the wisest thing, the 5-day averages on the GEFS increase AO ridging, still have signs of ridging in the NAO, squash the SE ridge that briefly flexed, and has BN 2m temps for the area. While some negatives appear briefly the general themes we have seen look to continue. I can certainly see a reload in the pattern for a short period but I also do not see anything earth shattering that says to cancel winter while it is still late autumn. If someone pressed me and said find something that could be of concern I would say we need to see how the ridge N of Hawaii plays out and what effect it might have on LP near the Aleutians. On the Atl side I would say lets see if the hint of a SE ridge links up as a full/mid lat ridge (like early Oct when we had record heat as the pattern reloaded) and/or how transient/stubborn that ridge becomes. Steady as she goes next 10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 6z gfs looks interesting next weekend or at least worth a hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Since we are jumping on every model run, let’s jump on the gfs for Saturday Not just Sat./Sun but Thanksgiving and Dec 3rd. What we see, if I may, is the normal progression of autumn as it approaches winter. Gradually seeing the colder air get closer to the MA at the same time precipitation does. Pattern to me is favorable. Too far out for details on what eventually happens. I like what I see, however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Gfs keeps the door open for possibly some frozen on Saturday/Sunday. Keeps precip South of us on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Just now, Chris78 said: Gfs keeps the door open for possibly some frozen on Saturday/Sunday. Keeps precip South of us on the 12z. Was gonna say the same. Not sure it would even try and snow with such marginal conditions. Mountains, maybe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 4 hours ago, Wonderdog said: Not just Sat./Sun but Thanksgiving and Dec 3rd. What we see, if I may, is the normal progression of autumn as it approaches winter. Gradually seeing the colder air get closer to the MA at the same time precipitation does. Pattern to me is favorable. Too far out for details on what eventually happens. I like what I see, however. after the mild start in september, it's been a pretty classic start to fall/winter with a pretty dramatic turnaround in temps after a very warm summer. looks like this pattern is locked in for now. i see some mild temps towards the end of the week, but that's average for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: after the mild start in september, it's been a pretty classic start to fall/winter with a pretty dramatic turnaround in temps after a very warm summer. looks like this pattern is locked in for now. i see some mild temps towards the end of the week, but that's average for this time of year. I can also imagine a scenario where a brief but potent warm temp day before thksgvng....just based on what is either a strong cold front or developing rainstorm...if that comes to fruition. I have now seen it on CMC and GFS op runs...but who knows. still 10 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I can also imagine a scenario where a brief but potent warm temp day before thksgvng....just based on what is either a strong cold front or developing rainstorm...if that comes to fruition. I have now seen it on CMC and GFS op runs...but who knows. still 10 days out i still think it's an accomplishment getting to this point after a very prolonged warm/wet pattern. last winter was only saved by the shear volume of precip events, but it was predominantly mild and summer ended up being above normal. spring was amazing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Just now, 87storms said: i still think it's an accomplishment getting to this point after a very prolonged warm/wet pattern. last winter was only saved by the shear volume of precip events, but it was predominantly mild and summer ended up being epic. spring was amazing though. Agree on all points. Back in October I thought first freeze wouldn't be until December especially at DCA and couldn't imagine what a cold day would feel like again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Agree on all points. Back in October I thought first freeze wouldn't be until December especially at DCA and couldn't imagine what a cold day would feel like again. yea it was essentially a 4 month summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 That Saturday system is worth watching. Be interesting to see what the Euro says about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 12z GEFS is pretty blah from a sensible weather POV, but has some improving action over the pole in the 2nd half of the run. Around D8 or so the 1000mb AO goes negative and then increasingly negative after into December. At 500mb it’s more neutral after D8 and signs the PV May rotate back to our hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That Saturday system is worth watching. Be interesting to see what the Euro says about it. Doesn't look good for us when there is a 999mb SLP at the KY/OH border at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Euro with a low over Pitt at 996mb this run. 00z had it over western OH at 998. A shift south and east with the overall track but not weaker.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Day 10 EURO has a decent cold blast coming through the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Day 10 EURO has a decent cold blast coming through the country is that the 27th or 28th? Yes, I can count but wondering if 10 days includes today. Thanks Yoda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 33 minutes ago, BristowWx said: is that the 27th or 28th? Yes, I can count but wondering if 10 days includes today. Thanks Yoda! 28th... Thanksgiving Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 28th... Thanksgiving Day Would probably be dropping/steady temps through the day on Thanksgiving which would be nice if it actually happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 2 hours ago, 87storms said: yea it was essentially a 4 month summer 2 hours ago, 87storms said: Minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Would probably be dropping/steady temps through the day on Thanksgiving which would be nice if it actually happened. Yes because I imagine a warm Wednesday leading into it under that scenario until the front passes...windy too...but we are still 9 days out so not sold on any idea just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 2 hours ago, yoda said: Doesn't look good for us when there is a 999mb SLP at the KY/OH border at 120 At least not right now. That low position can be fun mid winter with CAD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 GFS went west with the Saturday storm, but GGEM (and maybe icon?) still show a snow/mix threat for the northern tier. Likely last shot at any November frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Op Euro doesn’t look nearly as warm on Turkey day as the GFS. Just something I noticed compared to even 0z. But I am looking at crappy h5 plots on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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