October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Great data! Was more questioning the similarities in the Bering Sea. I noticed there is an anomalous blob of +SD 2m temps that are stationary there on the GEFS the entire run. I wonder how/if that will affect ridging in that area.

Eta: Bering Ses is a much smaller area so assuming that will freeze over quickly if not already. Just seems behind quite a bit also.

I don't think the Bering Sea actually freezes over. I think there is a strong current through the Strait, so its not likely to completely freeze either. That's my recollection from some climate/physical geography courses I took in college. I could be wrong, but I think the idea of walking across the Bering Strait  is a misconception.

[Vice-Regent]

The Chukchi Sea thing has climate change plastered all over it. We can't even get a good pattern with something insane like that. Our days are numbered for sure.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I don't think the Bering Sea actually freezes over. I think there is a strong current through the Strait, so its not likely to completely freeze either. That's my recollection from some climate/physical geography courses I took in college. I could be wrong, but I think the idea of walking across the Bering Strait  is a misconception.

I'm in the camp that beleives the troposphere drives the anomaly way more than water temps. Anomaly maps look like the water is boiling but ground truth is water temps are still only in the low 40s at best. It's one thing in the EQ region but the npac is never really "warm". The "blob" in the GoA during 13-15 was ssts in the low 50s. Can 50 degree water actually create a stable upper level ridge? I'd say no, not at all. Maybe helps with feedback? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Interesting:

"the Bering sea data are lagged behind the SOI for up to 18 months. The correlations suggest that warming in the Bering Sea follows negative anomalies in the SOI (i.e., El Niño events). Cooling in the Bering Sea tends to follow positive anomalies (i.e., precursors of El Niños) in the SOI. Maximal correlations for the PNA also lag the SOI by a mouth or two. Analyses of variance indicate that the SOI can explain 30 — 40% of the variability in the Bering Sea. Stepwise multiple regressions can explain up to 54% of the variation in air temperatures, up to 39% of the variation in sea ice cover, and up to 46% of the variation in SST in the Bering Sea. PNA and SOI were significant variables only in the equation for air temperatures, indicating a close relationship between them and the atmosphere in the Bering Sea and suggesting that energy is transmitted to the water and ice via the atmosphere. "

Source: https://www.jstor.org/stable/41144366?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

[frd]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm in the camp that beleives the troposphere drives the anomaly way more than water temps. Anomaly maps look like the water is boiling but ground truth is water temps are still only in the low 40s at best. It's one thing in the EQ region but the npac is never really "warm". The "blob" in the GoA during 13-15 was ssts in the low 50s. Can 50 degree water actually create a stable upper level ridge? I'd say no, not at all. Maybe helps with feedback? 

Good point, some mets point to the previous warm blob as an outcome of the pattern in place,  and not a pattern driver.  

However, I do believe the record + IOD is a huge driver this year, and it is effecting the MJO phases, progression and timing.   

[Ralph Wiggum]

Yep, as expected Bering Sea well above normal past 3 months though recently not quote as anomalous. What strikes me is the global sst anomalies. Sheesh. In any event I found info showing AN ssts in the Bering Sea in general since 2016 (was BN for a good period prior). Cant really say there will be a correlation between the AN ssts there and any blocking because if past few years are any indication well....umm yeah lol. I do thing the QBO/PDO and solar min will having an impact on blocking patterns downstream this year over the NAO region.

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, frd said:

Good point, some mets point to the previous warm blob as an outcome of the pattern in place,  and not a pattern driver.  

However, I do believe the record + IOD is a huge driver this year, and it is effecting the MJO phases, progression and timing.   

Exactly. Tropics are a true heat engine and no doubt have a deep and lasting influence on precip and pressure patterns downstream. I think ssta maps can be deceptive visually with northern waters. In many cases the water around those bright orange temp anoms are in the 30s and 40s. There's not much if any heat to release and change weather patterns. Anomaly configurations themselves are important clues as to what's going on above though

[frd]

A quick look at the IOD and where we may be going. Currently there was a recent update regarding the IOD by the Australian Meteorological service   

Briefly, it is forecasted to lag its normal weakening progression.  What this means it could retain its powerful influence as a weather driver into the end of the year and even longer. 

It is still at very high + levels currently, even though it declined just a bit.   

 

Weekly Tropical Climate Note

12 November 2019Next issue19 November 2019

Slight weakening of positive Indian Ocean Dipole

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) weakened marginally during the past week. This is likely due to interference with the Madden–Julian Oscillation as it moved over the eastern Indian Ocean and therefore unlikely to be an indication of the imminent decay of the positive IOD. The most recent weekly value of the IOD index was +1.7 °C, down from +2.0 °C the previous week. The threshold for a positive IOD is a sustained value of +0.4 °C or greater, so the current event remains strong.

The influence of the positive IOD is reflected in the latest rainfall outlook issued by the Bureau, which indicates a high likelihood of below-average rainfall for much of northern Australia for the remainder of November and throughout December. The positive IOD is also likely to lead to a delay in the onset of the Australian monsoon in 2019-20. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the positive IOD is so strong that its breakdown is likely to take longer than usual. The decay of the IOD is associated with the seasonal development of a monsoon trough in the southern hemisphere around December, but this process is well behind its typical schedule and is likely to happen significantly later than usual in 2019. As a result, the influence of the IOD is expected to persist into January 2020.

 

Great educational video

 

 

[frd]

Well, this is interesting. Need a expert strat person to weigh in.     

 

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm in the camp that beleives the troposphere drives the anomaly way more than water temps. Anomaly maps look like the water is boiling but ground truth is water temps are still only in the low 40s at best. It's one thing in the EQ region but the npac is never really "warm". The "blob" in the GoA during 13-15 was ssts in the low 50s. Can 50 degree water actually create a stable upper level ridge? I'd say no, not at all. Maybe helps with feedback? 

I have  good understanding of physics on relatively small scale systems. Fundamentally, oceans are a huge heat sink- a truly high thermal inertia system. The relationship/interaction/forcing elements between large bodies of water and the atmosphere is obviously a complex one. I don't profess to have a deep understanding of the linkage/relationships between the atmosphere,  currents, and warming/cooling of large bodies of water. That is super large scale stuff. It's like an electrical engineer claiming to have a profound understanding of large scale electrostatic energy- i.e. lightning. A totally different ballgame.

[BristowWx]

I found this GEFS run at 18z troubling.  First run in a while to deviate from the idea of extended BN temps both 2m and 850 and a decent look at h5.  Who knows. 

[CAPE]

Just now, BristowWx said:

I found this GEFS run at 18z troubling.  First run in a while to deviate from the idea of extended BN temps both 2m and 850 and a decent look at h5.  Who knows. 

"Off run". Toss it and move on, quickly.

Otherwise you are probably taking a step towards a visit to the reaper's 'new and improved' complex.

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

"Off run". Toss it and move on, quickly.

Otherwise you are probably taking a step towards a visit to the reaper's 'new and improved' complex.

Already visited, heard the pitch, got the free theme park tickets and purchased a timeshare.  It seemed like a wise investment.  Hope it’s a blip 

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I found this GEFS run at 18z troubling.  First run in a while to deviate from the idea of extended BN temps both 2m and 850 and a decent look at h5.  Who knows. 

You know this but it isnt going to stay BN forever. It did take some big jumps in the medium range irt some of the key long wave features, so sometimes when we see such drastic 'blips' it can be considered a flawed run....not sure here. However, it plays the role of reload. I take 240+ with a grain of salt but if the medium range leading up to the LR is to be believed this run, it sets up a CPF towards the end with a massive EPO ridge pushing into the AO region. Same time the TPV is split and the SPV is undergoing what looks like a SSWE with that feature taking an absolute pounding and hints of a split at the strat level. Again, way out there but just trying to save you from the cliff and give you some positives to go along with your panic over 2m temps. It's only November....hang in there.

[Chris78]

20 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I found this GEFS run at 18z troubling.  First run in a while to deviate from the idea of extended BN temps both 2m and 850 and a decent look at h5.  Who knows. 

Still looks good to me. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You know this but it isnt going to stay BN forever. It did take some big jumps in the medium range irt some of the key long wave features, so sometimes when we see such drastic 'blips' it can be considered a flawed run....not sure here. However, it plays the role of reload. I take 240+ with a grain of salt but if the medium range leading up to the LR is to be believed this run, it sets up a CPF towards the end with a massive EPO ridge pushing into the AO region. Same time the TPV is split and the SPV is undergoing what looks like a SSWE with that feature taking an absolute pounding and hints of a split at the strat level. Again, way out there but just trying to save you from the cliff and give you some positives to go along with your panic over 2m temps. It's only November....hang in there.

Roger It’s cool.  It was just such a deviation from the previous runs it startled me as I got used to seeing BN temps and a nice looking h5 pattern.  Thanks for the pep talk brother. 

[Bob Chill]

Dude, if you find the 18z gefs troubling the you must be trying hard to find something wrong. It's another great run and implies cold to very cold temps will kick off Dec and continue. Snow in Nov is always great but unlikely. All I see is an amplified cold pattern setting up in early Dec. We havent had that since 2013. 

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, if you find the 18z gefs troubling the you must be trying hard to find something wrong. It's another great run and implies cold to very cold temps will kick off Dec and continue. Snow in Nov is always great but unlikely. All I see is an amplified cold pattern setting up in early Dec. We havent had that since 2013. 

My mistake.  It appeared like a stark deviation from the previous ensemble runs for the last week of November.  Perhaps I was too focused on that week.  Sorry about that. 

[Mr. Kevin]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, if you find the 18z gefs troubling the you must be trying hard to find something wrong. It's another great run and implies cold to very cold temps will kick off Dec and continue. Snow in Nov is always great but unlikely. All I see is an amplified cold pattern setting up in early Dec. We havent had that since 2013. 

Hi Bob. I have a question. When i go to: dacula weather mjo, it has various models showing the progress of the mjo moving forward. Which model has the best estimate of the mjo forecast propigation? I am just confused. 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Hi Bob. I have a question. When i go to: dacula weather mjo, it has various models showing the progress of the mjo moving forward. Which model has the best estimate of the mjo forecast propigation? I am just confused. 

I like this site. I haven't seen dacula's page so might be similar

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

ECMF has the highest verification scores but I look at all of them and see the spread. Sometimes they all look similar and other times very different. When in doubt hug the ecmf

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I thought the Strat talk and the MJO talk were our standard fallback discussions when the winter was already in the toilet. Seems too early for those lol.

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, if you find the 18z gefs troubling the you must be trying hard to find something wrong. It's another great run and implies cold to very cold temps will kick off Dec and continue. Snow in Nov is always great but unlikely. All I see is an amplified cold pattern setting up in early Dec. We havent had that since 2013. 

Lol yeah, what am I supposed to be upset about with that run? The one day of AN temps next week ahead of a rainy cutter? 

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Lol yeah, what am I supposed to be upset about with that run? The one day of AN temps next week ahead of a rainy cutter? 

No, not you.  It was all me.  I will own that disaster.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

The system for next Sunday has reappeared on the GFS. Marginal system and very marginal cold but it’s at least weather.

[Wonderdog]

Interesting look at H5 on Thanksgiving with a pretty good looking ridge out west and a vigorous system a little to far north coming east. Need that storm to come further south as it moves into the MA. Or transfer its energy to the coast. 

[pasnownut]

36 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Interesting look at H5 on Thanksgiving with a pretty good looking ridge out west and a vigorous system a little to far north coming east. Need that storm to come further south as it moves into the MA. Or transfer its energy to the coast. 

6z GFS, definitely looks exciting to say the least, but if you look at the 500 from 0z to 6z, its fair to say that the outcome is still "up in the air".  

[Mr. Kevin]

11 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I like this site. I haven't seen dacula's page so might be similar

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

ECMF has the highest verification scores but I look at all of them and see the spread. Sometimes they all look similar and other times very different. When in doubt hug the ecmf

 

Thanks bob. Dacula weather mjo is a site where about 12 different opinions on the mjo progression are there, but its confusing because even the ecmwf has more different views and one says something different than the other one lol. Check it out. I am just trying to find out where the mjo is now and which has the best handle.

Forgot this. https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

Thats where i go. Hasn't been updated today yet.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

Interesting look at H5 on Thanksgiving with a pretty good looking ridge out west and a vigorous system a little to far north coming east. Need that storm to come further south as it moves into the MA. Or transfer its energy to the coast. 

My takeaway for hours 180-240 on the 3 ens families was unanimous depiction of ridging over Greenland into the Bering Sea with a piece of the PV subsequently being pinched off in Eastern Canada. Kind of a flat ridge out West but better than a full lat trof as the split flow off the West Coast looks to continue. Only pause is more of a ridge near the Aluetians but that may be a transient feature....not sure. AO looks positive....neutral at best. EPO also has a neutral look. Some mixed signals on the development of a SE ridge among guidance. Difficult to look past that with much of a feel either way. That week definitely has the look of a transition or reload weak irt the overall pattern with the early/mid December pattern likely hinging on how that full week progresses.

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

My takeaway for hours 180-240 on the 3 ens families was unanimous depiction of ridging over Greenland into the Bering Sea with a piece of the PV subsequently being pinched off in Eastern Canada. Kind of a flat ridge out West but better than a full lat trof as the split flow off the West Coast looks to continue. Only pause is more of a ridge near the Aluetians but that may be a transient feature....not sure. AO looks positive....neutral at best. EPO also has a neutral look. Some mixed signals on the development of a SE ridge among guidance. Difficult to look past that with much of a feel either way. That week definitely has the look of a transition or reload weak irt the overall pattern with the early/mid December pattern likely hinging on how that full week progresses.

At the end of the 0z EPS run, the look is a bit 

Lots of blues up top. Who knows how the pattern will roll going forward. A bit of a reshuffle/mild period would not be unexpected or overly concerning. Hopefully it's not a move towards what the weeklies/climate models have been advertising.

[poolz1]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

At the end of the 0z EPS, the look is a bit 

Lots of blues up top. Who knows how the pattern will roll going forward. A bit of a reshuffle/mild period would not be unexpected or overly concerning. Hopefully it's not a move towards what the weeklies/climate models have been advertising.

That ridge north of HI is a little reminiscent of last last year.  Looks like the GFS and Euro pretty much agree on the progression of the MJO....slowly weakening into the COD after phase 2.  GEFS are a little jumpy in the LR but continue the cold look which agrees with that MJO progression.... Hard to get a good read on what that first week of Dec will feature. I'd lean GEFS just for this reason and the EPS has been playing a little catch up here lately.  It doesnt happen often but sometime the GEFS lead the way....