October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Hey psu what do you think abut the 06z GEFS? 

Some models put a trough in the SW and cut back on the West Coast ridging. You feel anything there is transient or simply the models are not getting it correct?  

Maybe a simple case of a relax, and then a reload. Some features at the HL are persistent and encouraging. Nothing really bad to say. And the things I am referring to are in la la land anyway. But, still interesting to attempt to figure out what is going on and thier implications for the base state as we enter December.  

 

I'm not psu but one factor I noted in my outlook was for a split flow off the Cali coast with trofs establishing in the SW at times. It is worth mentioning that I dont see that feature becoming a persistent full latitude feature. If anything I believe this helps aid in stj energy undercutting the ML ridge on the West coast and as it ejects east in pieces will provide SWF/gradient overrunning situations for us and more specifically the OV as it runs between the SE ridge which will appear periodically and NS 500mb trof over the GL/NE. That look has been showing up on the LR ens for a few runs but as you noted...la la land for now and nothing I would be too concerned with one way or the other right now. More interested in how the HL players line up going forward the next few weeks.

[frd]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That look has been showing up on the LR ens for a few runs but as you noted...la la land for now and nothing I would be too concerned with one way or the other right now. More interested in how the HL players line up going forward the next few weeks.

Agreed. Looking at December with interest to see the validity of whether the recently record high +PMM actually does influence the STJ.    

[CAPE]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I see nothing on any guidance that troubles me much. In about a week we will start to get an idea if this pattern rolls into December. If so I will get more optimistic. So far so good. 

This is pretty much my thinking. Nothing alarming at this point. Still most curious to see how the advertised NA blocking plays out. Would not be surprised if it verifies weaker than depicted, and does not persist into Dec. As I mentioned previously, I am not going to bother much with trying to glean anything meaningful from weeklies/climate/seasonal models. I will just continue to monitor the LR ens guidance daily to see how the h5 pattern is 'trending'.

[WxUSAF]

Potentially cold thanksgiving week if the GEFS and Eps are right with a piece of the tropospheric PV stuck under the NAO ridging. And potentially a stormy look bracketing thanksgiving as well. 

[CAPE]

Continue to see favorable h5 looks around the 25th. Who knows if anything will come of it, and yeah lets hope we see something like this in another month or so.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Potentially cold thanksgiving week if the GEFS and Eps are right with a piece of the tropospheric PV stuck under the NAO ridging. And potentially a stormy look bracketing thanksgiving as well. 

T-day 1989 redux. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

T-day 1989 redux. 

That Eps look a few days before thanksgiving is borderline pants tent...except November.

[CAPE]

This was h5 leading up to T-day of 1989.

Cold powder to right to the beaches. That was a great event for the coastal plain. 6" +. It can happen in late November.

[frd]

 

I can tell you one thing the orientation of snowfall anomalies seem to be lining up a bit differently this late Fall versus last Fall. Totally speculative. 

I know the Euro Control run is wild beast but you know looking at it last Winter it did depict future snowfall in terms regions rather well.  No one should ever put any faith into the 46 day snowfall totals regardless of the model.    

Maybe the lower latitudes score more than Maine this winter. 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This was h5 leading up to T-day of 1989.

Cold powder to right to the beaches. That was a great event for the coastal plain. 6" +. It can happen in late November.

Temp / snow-wise, how did the rest of the winter end up?

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I see nothing on any guidance that troubles me much. In about a week we will start to get an idea if this pattern rolls into December. If so I will get more optimistic. So far so good. 

It is nice to see where we've been and where we seem to be heading as we approach December.  2M temp anomalies are blues of varying degrees for as long as the eye can see.  End of the GEFS looks really nice at 500mb so it would seem likely that if things hold, we might be able to score a little early season action.  A pleasant way to start tracking season regardless the outcome. Pac seems to be cooperating early on and in my mind has to be a big part of the perty maps.  Couple that with some help in the NAO domain and it could feel like normal winter round here.

 

[CAPE]

55 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Temp / snow-wise, how did the rest of the winter end up?

Don't recall the details but the pattern flipped in early Jan to complete suckage. 

eta- DCA had 15.3" that winter. 12.5" fell in Nov-Dec (9" in Dec). Nothing significant after that until March. Jan was an all out torch following a very cold Dec.

Perfect I guess for those who want a cold, snowy, front loaded winter.

[Cold Rain]

59 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm not psu but one factor I noted in my outlook was for a split flow off the Cali coast with trofs establishing in the SW at times. It is worth mentioning that I dont see that feature becoming a persistent full latitude feature. If anything I believe this helps aid in stj energy undercutting the ML ridge on the West coast and as it ejects east in pieces will provide SWF/gradient overrunning situations for us and more specifically the OV as it runs between the SE ridge which will appear periodically and NS 500mb trof over the GL/NE. That look has been showing up on the LR ens for a few runs but as you noted...la la land for now and nothing I would be too concerned with one way or the other right now. More interested in how the HL players line up going forward the next few weeks.

Agree with this.  Red flags go up when you start to see more full latitude persistence, as you said.  You'd start to see a SE ridge reflection in that case.  So far, we don't see it, which is cause for optimism.

[poolz1]

Posted this in the wrong thread....moving to this one.

For all the peeps in here that have memories like an elephant....any of these dates interesting?  

[Kmlwx]

Just now, poolz1 said:

Posted this in the wrong thread....moving to this one.

For all the peeps in here that have memories like an elephant....any of these dates interesting?  

 

I see 11/2009 in there - probably too early but everyone knows what came later  

[wawarriors4]

21 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Posted this in the wrong thread....moving to this one.

For all the peeps in here that have memories like an elephant....any of these dates interesting?  

11/24-25/1971 there was a pretty big snowstorm in the Northeast, dropped about 2 feet on my hometown of Scranton, PA

ETA: CWG had a write up on it a few years ago, and a few other late November/Thanksgiving snow storms

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/23/five-early-snow-storms-that-turned-thanksgiving-into-travel-nightmares/

[WinterWxLuvr]

We don’t want 89-90 ever again

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We don’t want 89-90 ever again

Serious question, but why? I don't remember winters much before 93.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Serious question, but why? I don't remember winters much before 93.

Because after Dec the winter was basically a torch. Probably could not have a worse Jan for cold/snow. Plus it followed an extremely cold Dec. It was quite the flip.

[Winter Wizard]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Serious question, but why? I don't remember winters much before 93.

I wasn't alive for it, but 89-90 had one of the most dramatic pattern flips I've seen. Second coldest December on record in DC (-12.2 departure) to blowtorch January (+7.6) and February (+6.2). December 22-24 1989 was the biggest snowstorm on record for ILM and OBX (15 and 13 inches respectively) while our area was mostly shut out. We did have above average snow for the month but most posters would have been frustrated. 

[Sparky]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Serious question, but why? I don't remember winters much before 93.

Very cold and snowy December followed by a warm snowless Jan and Feb.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Sparky said:

Very cold and snowy December followed by a warm snowless Jan and Feb.

Yuck.  The worst.

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, wawarriors4 said:

11/24-25/1971 there was a pretty big snowstorm in the Northeast, dropped about 2 feet on my hometown of Scranton, PA

ETA: CWG had a write up on it a few years ago, and a few other late November/Thanksgiving snow storms

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/23/five-early-snow-storms-that-turned-thanksgiving-into-travel-nightmares/

speaking of.....where's Wes been?

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Serious question, but why? I don't remember winters much before 93.

Yeah as CAPE was saying I’ve never seen a flip like that. November and especially December were brutal. Then right about Nee Years it flipped. Down in swva where I was living at the time it didn’t snow another flake until St Patrick’s Day. 

[WxUSAF]

Sunday-Wednesday of thanksgiving week is RIPE on the GEFS. +PNA/-NAO/50-50 and some subtropical jet action. Why can’t it be winter??

[wawarriors4]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Sunday-Wednesday of thanksgiving week is RIPE on the GEFS. +PNA/-NAO/50-50 and some subtropical jet action. Why can’t it be winter??

On a positive note, at least Thanksgiving is as late as it can possibly be this year. Those panels from the 24th -27th do look great......hopefully it translates going forward.

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, frd said:

 

Hey psu what do you think abut the 06z GEFS? 

Some models put a trough in the SW and cut back on the West Coast ridging. You feel anything there is transient or simply the models are not getting it correct?  

Maybe a simple case of a relax, and then a reload. Some features at the HL are persistent and encouraging. Nothing really bad to say. And the things I am referring to are in la la land anyway. But, still interesting to attempt to figure out what is going on and thier implications for the base state as we enter December.  

 

Sorry I was busy today.  As Ralph said what I see there is a split flow.  It's not perfect but I am ok with that look, especially during winter.  The southern jet is crashing into the southwest and lowering the heights there but so long as there is riding over the top and a decent pattern to our northeast with lower heights in the Newfoundland regions with ridging over the top of it... those systems should mostly be forced to slide across the south and not cut to our west.  That may not work in November, but in mid winter that would be an ok pattern.  

[frd]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

those systems should mostly be forced to slide across the south and not cut to our west.  That may not work in November, but in mid winter that would be an ok pattern.  

Thanks psu. Anything would be better than the 3 predominant storm tracks we had last winter. Over and over again, it got taxing. 

[LP08]

EPS looking pretty nice for thanksgiving week too...

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Sunday-Wednesday of thanksgiving week is RIPE on the GEFS. +PNA/-NAO/50-50 and some subtropical jet action. Why can’t it be winter??

Ditto for the 12z EPS. Looks as good as the panel I posted this morning from the 0z run,  if not better.

 

eta: ^^^yeah like that