Ralph Wiggum Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 12:52 PM, frd said: Hey psu what do you think abut the 06z GEFS? Some models put a trough in the SW and cut back on the West Coast ridging. You feel anything there is transient or simply the models are not getting it correct? Maybe a simple case of a relax, and then a reload. Some features at the HL are persistent and encouraging. Nothing really bad to say. And the things I am referring to are in la la land anyway. But, still interesting to attempt to figure out what is going on and thier implications for the base state as we enter December. Expand I'm not psu but one factor I noted in my outlook was for a split flow off the Cali coast with trofs establishing in the SW at times. It is worth mentioning that I dont see that feature becoming a persistent full latitude feature. If anything I believe this helps aid in stj energy undercutting the ML ridge on the West coast and as it ejects east in pieces will provide SWF/gradient overrunning situations for us and more specifically the OV as it runs between the SE ridge which will appear periodically and NS 500mb trof over the GL/NE. That look has been showing up on the LR ens for a few runs but as you noted...la la land for now and nothing I would be too concerned with one way or the other right now. More interested in how the HL players line up going forward the next few weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 1:01 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: That look has been showing up on the LR ens for a few runs but as you noted...la la land for now and nothing I would be too concerned with one way or the other right now. More interested in how the HL players line up going forward the next few weeks. Expand Agreed. Looking at December with interest to see the validity of whether the recently record high +PMM actually does influence the STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 12:34 PM, psuhoffman said: I see nothing on any guidance that troubles me much. In about a week we will start to get an idea if this pattern rolls into December. If so I will get more optimistic. So far so good. Expand This is pretty much my thinking. Nothing alarming at this point. Still most curious to see how the advertised NA blocking plays out. Would not be surprised if it verifies weaker than depicted, and does not persist into Dec. As I mentioned previously, I am not going to bother much with trying to glean anything meaningful from weeklies/climate/seasonal models. I will just continue to monitor the LR ens guidance daily to see how the h5 pattern is 'trending'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Potentially cold thanksgiving week if the GEFS and Eps are right with a piece of the tropospheric PV stuck under the NAO ridging. And potentially a stormy look bracketing thanksgiving as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Continue to see favorable h5 looks around the 25th. Who knows if anything will come of it, and yeah lets hope we see something like this in another month or so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 1:27 PM, WxUSAF said: Potentially cold thanksgiving week if the GEFS and Eps are right with a piece of the tropospheric PV stuck under the NAO ridging. And potentially a stormy look bracketing thanksgiving as well. Expand T-day 1989 redux. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 1:33 PM, C.A.P.E. said: T-day 1989 redux. Expand That Eps look a few days before thanksgiving is borderline pants tent...except November. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 This was h5 leading up to T-day of 1989. Cold powder to right to the beaches. That was a great event for the coastal plain. 6" +. It can happen in late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 I can tell you one thing the orientation of snowfall anomalies seem to be lining up a bit differently this late Fall versus last Fall. Totally speculative. I know the Euro Control run is wild beast but you know looking at it last Winter it did depict future snowfall in terms regions rather well. No one should ever put any faith into the 46 day snowfall totals regardless of the model. Maybe the lower latitudes score more than Maine this winter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 1:42 PM, C.A.P.E. said: This was h5 leading up to T-day of 1989. Cold powder to right to the beaches. That was a great event for the coastal plain. 6" +. It can happen in late November. Expand Temp / snow-wise, how did the rest of the winter end up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 12:34 PM, psuhoffman said: I see nothing on any guidance that troubles me much. In about a week we will start to get an idea if this pattern rolls into December. If so I will get more optimistic. So far so good. Expand It is nice to see where we've been and where we seem to be heading as we approach December. 2M temp anomalies are blues of varying degrees for as long as the eye can see. End of the GEFS looks really nice at 500mb so it would seem likely that if things hold, we might be able to score a little early season action. A pleasant way to start tracking season regardless the outcome. Pac seems to be cooperating early on and in my mind has to be a big part of the perty maps. Couple that with some help in the NAO domain and it could feel like normal winter round here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 1:52 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Temp / snow-wise, how did the rest of the winter end up? Expand Don't recall the details but the pattern flipped in early Jan to complete suckage. eta- DCA had 15.3" that winter. 12.5" fell in Nov-Dec (9" in Dec). Nothing significant after that until March. Jan was an all out torch following a very cold Dec. Perfect I guess for those who want a cold, snowy, front loaded winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 1:01 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm not psu but one factor I noted in my outlook was for a split flow off the Cali coast with trofs establishing in the SW at times. It is worth mentioning that I dont see that feature becoming a persistent full latitude feature. If anything I believe this helps aid in stj energy undercutting the ML ridge on the West coast and as it ejects east in pieces will provide SWF/gradient overrunning situations for us and more specifically the OV as it runs between the SE ridge which will appear periodically and NS 500mb trof over the GL/NE. That look has been showing up on the LR ens for a few runs but as you noted...la la land for now and nothing I would be too concerned with one way or the other right now. More interested in how the HL players line up going forward the next few weeks. Expand Agree with this. Red flags go up when you start to see more full latitude persistence, as you said. You'd start to see a SE ridge reflection in that case. So far, we don't see it, which is cause for optimism. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Posted this in the wrong thread....moving to this one. For all the peeps in here that have memories like an elephant....any of these dates interesting? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 2:10 PM, poolz1 said: Posted this in the wrong thread....moving to this one. For all the peeps in here that have memories like an elephant....any of these dates interesting? Expand I see 11/2009 in there - probably too early but everyone knows what came later 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 2:10 PM, poolz1 said: Posted this in the wrong thread....moving to this one. For all the peeps in here that have memories like an elephant....any of these dates interesting? Expand 11/24-25/1971 there was a pretty big snowstorm in the Northeast, dropped about 2 feet on my hometown of Scranton, PA ETA: CWG had a write up on it a few years ago, and a few other late November/Thanksgiving snow storms https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/23/five-early-snow-storms-that-turned-thanksgiving-into-travel-nightmares/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 We don’t want 89-90 ever again 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 3:46 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: We don’t want 89-90 ever again Expand Serious question, but why? I don't remember winters much before 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 3:54 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Serious question, but why? I don't remember winters much before 93. Expand Because after Dec the winter was basically a torch. Probably could not have a worse Jan for cold/snow. Plus it followed an extremely cold Dec. It was quite the flip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 3:54 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Serious question, but why? I don't remember winters much before 93. Expand I wasn't alive for it, but 89-90 had one of the most dramatic pattern flips I've seen. Second coldest December on record in DC (-12.2 departure) to blowtorch January (+7.6) and February (+6.2). December 22-24 1989 was the biggest snowstorm on record for ILM and OBX (15 and 13 inches respectively) while our area was mostly shut out. We did have above average snow for the month but most posters would have been frustrated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 3:54 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Serious question, but why? I don't remember winters much before 93. Expand Very cold and snowy December followed by a warm snowless Jan and Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 4:06 PM, Sparky said: Very cold and snowy December followed by a warm snowless Jan and Feb. Expand Yuck. The worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 2:31 PM, wawarriors4 said: 11/24-25/1971 there was a pretty big snowstorm in the Northeast, dropped about 2 feet on my hometown of Scranton, PA ETA: CWG had a write up on it a few years ago, and a few other late November/Thanksgiving snow storms https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/23/five-early-snow-storms-that-turned-thanksgiving-into-travel-nightmares/ Expand speaking of.....where's Wes been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 3:54 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Serious question, but why? I don't remember winters much before 93. Expand Yeah as CAPE was saying I’ve never seen a flip like that. November and especially December were brutal. Then right about Nee Years it flipped. Down in swva where I was living at the time it didn’t snow another flake until St Patrick’s Day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Sunday-Wednesday of thanksgiving week is RIPE on the GEFS. +PNA/-NAO/50-50 and some subtropical jet action. Why can’t it be winter?? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 6:56 PM, WxUSAF said: Sunday-Wednesday of thanksgiving week is RIPE on the GEFS. +PNA/-NAO/50-50 and some subtropical jet action. Why can’t it be winter?? Expand On a positive note, at least Thanksgiving is as late as it can possibly be this year. Those panels from the 24th -27th do look great......hopefully it translates going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 12:52 PM, frd said: Hey psu what do you think abut the 06z GEFS? Some models put a trough in the SW and cut back on the West Coast ridging. You feel anything there is transient or simply the models are not getting it correct? Maybe a simple case of a relax, and then a reload. Some features at the HL are persistent and encouraging. Nothing really bad to say. And the things I am referring to are in la la land anyway. But, still interesting to attempt to figure out what is going on and thier implications for the base state as we enter December. Expand Sorry I was busy today. As Ralph said what I see there is a split flow. It's not perfect but I am ok with that look, especially during winter. The southern jet is crashing into the southwest and lowering the heights there but so long as there is riding over the top and a decent pattern to our northeast with lower heights in the Newfoundland regions with ridging over the top of it... those systems should mostly be forced to slide across the south and not cut to our west. That may not work in November, but in mid winter that would be an ok pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 7:49 PM, psuhoffman said: those systems should mostly be forced to slide across the south and not cut to our west. That may not work in November, but in mid winter that would be an ok pattern. Expand Thanks psu. Anything would be better than the 3 predominant storm tracks we had last winter. Over and over again, it got taxing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 EPS looking pretty nice for thanksgiving week too... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 6:56 PM, WxUSAF said: Sunday-Wednesday of thanksgiving week is RIPE on the GEFS. +PNA/-NAO/50-50 and some subtropical jet action. Why can’t it be winter?? Expand Ditto for the 12z EPS. Looks as good as the panel I posted this morning from the 0z run, if not better. eta: ^^^yeah like that 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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