mappy Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Gotcha. thanks. I cant believe how some of the local Baltimore metorologists have been talking about this. Not that they were saying it was going to be some kind of signifcant accumulation event but to spend a week talking about it and some of the wording used, I just dont get it. I can offer a bit of background on that. From my discussions with a local tv met, the mention of snow, even if very little, was on purpose just to get people used to it being part of the forecast again. even if it doesn't amount to much. of course, that same met said they were accused of saying it because the grocery stores were paying them to, so... you can't please everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Its freaking hyperbole to get people to tune in. Or in the case of Tony the tool Pann, to get people to follow his BS on Twitter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its freaking hyperbole to get people to tune in. Or in the case of Tony the tool Pann, to get people to follow his BS on Twitter. well Tony is good friends with Berk, so..... weenies united. Not all of them are that way though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, mappy said: well Tony is good friends with Berk, so..... weenies united. Not all of them are that way though Yes they are cut from the same cloth. RPM!!! #faithintheflakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Not loving the dry appearance the GFS keeps showing in the long run. I was hoping to see a more consistent wet pattern start to show up but alas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 The weather pattern looks rather boring for the rest of November to me, no? Looks like average maybe even some above average temps with not much in the signifcant storm department 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Overnight Euro was interesting. First shot we see is on Monday (red circle). Right now it stays off the coast so that we see no impact through our region except for possibly around the VA tidewaters up to OC. Probably doesn't matter anyway as the very setup that brings this up the coast is also responsible for trashing our temps as the NS withdraws taking the colder temps with it to the N and E. And anyway I look at it I can't see getting the low closer to the coast to impact us without further losing the temps or getting the temps to cooperate without possibly losing the storm. Barring a somewhat significant shift at 500's, the euro being significantly off on temps or a bombing low just off our coast I think this storm is pretty much dead in the water. Now if we were in the heart of winter or even a month down the road where climo temps would be more cooperative I would have interest in this but as of now I think it is pretty much a non-player. But we are still 5+ days out so... But that isn't the system that has my interest. Look at what we see following on the heals of our Monday system. We have a strong shortwave/trough (purple circle) running down through the gulf states which is attaining a neutral tilt through Mississippi. A neutral tilted trough around the Mississippi region is one of the things we look for when it comes to possible winter storms as quite often it will attain a favorable position and axis tilt (negative) as it sweeps through our region. This trough is catching a low that is forming in the gulf and drawing it northward up the coast as the trough goes negative tilt. Two other features to note are the 2 shortwaves (black circles) embedded in the north stream. The first shortwave (over Michigan) is driving a fresh supply of cold air down into the Midwest as it sweeps through the Lakes. The second shortwave is following with a reinforcing shot of cold air. So now we have a fresh supply of cold air to our west as a low forms and sweeps up the coast. As it is it just quite doesn't get it done. But to expect the Euro to have this energy in the NS nailed down as far as timing and placement at 5+ days is folly. Just a little difference with these features (if they exist) could mean a great deal in timing of the cold as well as the possibility of phasing between the NS energy and/or the southern energy. Now here are the 500's at day 7+. Notice we have negative tilted trough running through our region with an embedded closed low in a prime location over OBX. Not only that but we are seeing a capture of the surface at this time as well. If you also notice the shortwave over the Lakes (second shortwave from above), if we were to see a quicker deeper drop with that feature earlier in the process that could also come into play with potential NS/SS phasing. Also another feature that is of note is the ridging we see to the west in the central US. The initial placement (ridging builds up around Idaho) and eastward migration/evolution of this feature is one of a storm signal in the east. THIS IS THE LOOK WE WANT. Give me this look inside of 3 days and I would be hollering up a storm at the potential. Below we have the surface map as the same time above. We are seeing a 989 mb low captured around OBX and moving northward. This low has seen fairly rapid deepening the previous 24 hrs as we see a 15 mb drop. Now the temps are lagging a little to our west and we are seeing very little precip on the western side of the low. So basically it is a swing and a miss. But these are details that mean nothing at this time range (7+ days). As it is, it is enough to know that the Euro at this time, and has been for awhile, sees a shortwave running through the south as well as the NS dropping in to possibly provide cold air and possibly more. Anything beyond that as far as details is meaningless. Now if we can just get this general look inside 3 days... eta: Just a couple comments about the EPS on the possible Wed system. EPS still sees the southern low development and though somewhat progressive with that feature it has improved in that regard compared to yesterdays 12z run as well as with the trough depth and placement. Saw a better indication as far as possible NS involvement over the 12z run as well though we need to see improvement in that regard. Overall the general look has improved and shows the possibilities. Don't bother with glancing at the individual snow maps because they are basically a no-show. This will be a case of what we see occur with the NS in future runs. We continue to see improvements with that feature (in particular a deeper drop) then the other features would probably fall into place. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Great write up Show, thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 DT (WxRisk) https://www.wxrisk.com/potentially-some-good-news-for-east-coast-winter-weather-lovers-2019-20/?fbclid=IwAR0FzQeqCTBbiP99-KBtUoJdW4rZttm5Md_kbgbLUMvlRup51hClHReGJ8o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 GEFS turns on the NAO and cranks it to 11 for the whole run 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS turns on the NAO and cranks it to 11 for the whole run Yea it does. I keep thinking how a lot of the primary and secondary analog years I found features early season snowfall. So given that and what we are seeing it wouldn’t shock me to see an actual threat pop up faster then some might think. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS turns on the NAO and cranks it to 11 for the whole run Yea man, and it's a textbook west based block and not some convoluted bootleg deal. It's quite surprising but that's how the NAO rolls. We haven't had a favorable/blocky winter pattern in Dec since 2010. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea man, and it's a textbook west based block and not some convoluted bootleg deal. It's quite surprising but that's how the NAO rolls. We haven't had a favorable/blocky winter pattern in Dec since 2010. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea man, and it's a textbook west based block and not some convoluted bootleg deal. It's quite surprising but that's how the NAO rolls. We haven't had a favorable/blocky winter pattern in Dec since 2010. Lets see if we can get some agreement from the EPS. But, for many burnt by last year, mets I mean, most are taking a wait and see approach, can't blame them. But, this is nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Yea it does. I keep thinking how a lot of the primary and secondary analog years I found features early season snowfall. So given that and what we are seeing it wouldn’t shock me to see an actual threat pop up faster then some might think. 57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea man, and it's a textbook west based block and not some convoluted bootleg deal. It's quite surprising but that's how the NAO rolls. We haven't had a favorable/blocky winter pattern in Dec since 2010. And it keeps chickening out on breaking down ridging in western Canada. It’s not a super cold look, but a consistently BN look with storm chances. Hope we see that into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And it keeps chickening out on breaking down ridging in western Canada. It’s not a super cold look, but a consistently BN look with storm chances. Hope we see that into winter. I know you know this backwards and forwards but a -NAO does not automatically mean cold. It's completely normal for most or all of Canada to be AN with a -NAO and our region to just be average (with a bias for below but only with help elsewhere). Especially during nino events. I'm not sold that enso is going to drive things this year but given recent developments with ens guidance it sure looks like a nino to me. lol. First half of Dec is still pretty hostile for snow here and early Mar is better snow climo to put it in perspective. Sucks to say but odds favor no snow even with a -NAO in early Dec unless there is a legit cold delivery. I'm not remotely worried about early Dec as much as I am the season as a whole. Parking a west based block leading into met winter is never bad and always good even if we don't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Absolutely. If we see a look like that after December 15-20, then I’d be honking. Before that is pretty iffy, because that’s a seasonable to 5F below sort of look. Seasonable temps to 5 BN in early December are still above freezing for 18 hours a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Can we pleases lock this thread and use the new one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can we pleases lock this thread and use the new one? Prob should keep it open until we can rule out winter wx before Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Maybe rename the other thread to include November, then shut this one down. Anything short term can go in the Discobs thread. And ofc, if there is a legit threat before the end of the month, a new thread shall be created. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Maybe rename the other thread to include November, then shut this one down. Anything short term can go in the Discobs thread. And ofc, if there is a legit threat before the end of the month, a new thread shall be created. I this post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Euro showing a bombing low day 6/7 . Great to see . Rain or snow love to see this turn into a strong coastal for the area. How did the EPS look long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Looks like the 20th/21st time period has some potential to my untrained eyes for a coastal which has been trending for a couple of days. 500's look interesting. In fact, we have a possible coastal on the 19th. Less cold air though for this one, at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Anyone have any thoughts on this new model IBM created called Graff? It updates hourly instead of every six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Anyone have any thoughts on this new model IBM created called Graff? It updates hourly instead of every six hours. Is it publicly available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Looks interesting, if the hype pans out: IBM Global High Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Is it publicly available? It sounds like it will be several months before they decide to make it available. Guessing they want to see how it performs first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 GFS has a nice vort pass next Tuesday/Wednesday for the region. Mid levels are cold but boundary layer still says November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 This would be a good look 4 weeks from now with a SS vort and cold pressing down from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS has a nice vort pass next Tuesday/Wednesday for the region. Mid levels are cold but boundary layer still says November. So much for next week being warm per GFS. Not arctic, but BN for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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