October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

[Winter Wizard]

I agree that the 11/12-13 threat has much more potential. The late week storm threat seems more like a frontal boundary that could bring some snow on the backend to interior New England and maybe parts of western NY and PA. Even some mood flakes are possible in the far northern and western suburbs depending on the track. This would shift the baroclinic zone farther southeast, which could end up working out in our favor if all goes right. You have a highly amplified west coast ridge, a deep trough, fresh injection of cold air, and some semblance of Greenland blocking starting this weekend. Actually a fairly similar setup to November 2014 and 2018.

We've seen D10 threats fall apart in the medium range, but this one is definitely worth monitoring. At the very least, a colder-than-normal November seems pretty likely at this point. 

[CAPE]

This h5 look is something I would rather see as we are  approaching mid  Dec, but it's on the table so what the hell, maybe some part of our region can score something given the highly anomalous nature of the advertised pattern.

[mattie g]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This h5 look is something I would rather see as we are  approaching mid  Dec, but it's on the table so what the hell, maybe some part of our region can score something given the highly anomalous nature of the advertised pattern.

That’s pure eye-candy if we’re in mid-December - the stuff of dreams.

[WxUSAF]

Yeah, that’s a damn sweet H500 look. I think first flakes for many of us in the next 7-10 days is getting more and more likely.

[frd]

24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This h5 look is something I would rather see as we are  approaching mid  Dec, but it's on the table so what the hell, maybe some part of our region can score something given the highly anomalous nature of the advertised pattern.

 

So,  then for me after looking at this  beautiful meteorological artwork is, what about the eventual flip,  and do we go back to a favorable pattern at some point ?

I think any relax is minimal,  but has to happen.  

The ensemble mean, as Maue points out,  is remarkable. 

Lets not forget in the process of all this cold is the building snow cover extent and depth to our North and Northwest.   I did read one thing from HM about N Pac ridging. However, I assume if that were a huge concern for December in the East Anthony would talk about it more.  

Here is the snippet from HM I was referring to:

<<

. Too much ridging in the N PAC and you end up with a 1990 situation--big +AO next month.

>>

 

 

[Rhino16]

2 hours ago, frd said:

On a side note, I have heard from several respected mets that this winter will feature a few robust clippers and even Manitoba Maulers.

 

 

 

 

What is a Manitoba Mauler? I think i’ve heard the phrase before, but i cannot remember what it is...

[frd]

1 minute ago, Rhino16 said:

What is a Manitoba Mauler? I think i’ve heard the phrase before, but i cannot remember what it is...

An upper air feature, low pressure disturbance,  that move out of far W/NW Canada going SE ( quickly ) and passes over the province of Manitoba, Canada.

These features can at times drop far enough to our South and Southeast to spawn cyclogenesis. If they drop far enough to our South and the pattern is conducive they can develop into powerful East Coast snowstorms.  Sometimes these storms can even stall or loop as they move NE along the Eastern Seaboard dropping feet of snow.  

This diving system out of Canada shares common characteristics with Alberta clippers and even Saskatchewan Screamers. The name given simply implies the location they pass over.

Great link 

       https://www.9and10news.com/2011/01/03/alberta-clipper-saskatchewan-screamer-manitoba-mauler/

 

[poolz1]

33 minutes ago, frd said:

So,  then for me after looking at this  beautiful meteorological artwork is, what about the eventual flip,  and do we go back to a favorable pattern at some point ?

I think any relax is minimal,  but has to happen.  

The ensemble mean, as Maue points out,  is remarkable. 

Lets not forget in the process of all this cold is the building snow cover extent and depth to our North and Northwest.   I did read one thing from HM about N Pac ridging. However, I assume if that were a huge concern for December in the East Anthony would talk about it more.  

Here is the snippet from HM I was referring to:

<<

. Too much ridging in the N PAC and you end up with a 1990 situation--big +AO next month.

>>

 

 

I was thinking that I hope thats not where the very long range looks are taking us (+AO).  Out there in lala land and is bound to change but I dont like losing the  +heights in AK and breaking that link with the ridging in Siberia.   You can see how fast that vortex retreats to pole and tries to hold hands with our Aleutian low.   

 On a glass half full note...maybe the scan ridge bullies the pattern anyway and we snap back to a -AO. 

[frd]

24 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I was thinking that I hope thats not where the very long range looks are taking us (+AO).  Out there in lala land and is bound to change but I dont like losing the  +heights in AK and breaking that link with the ridging in Siberia.   You can see how fast that vortex retreats to pole and tries to hold hands with our Aleutian low.   

 On a glass half full note...maybe the scan ridge bullies the pattern anyway and we snap back to a -AO. 

Valid point. 

There are however several good reasons to to be hopeful for an averaged winter  -AO.  

I am most interested about December,  but you have to love seeing the atmosphere cooperate with the early season cold delivery,  Seems if we maintain no  negative surprises we roll into December and then hopefully rock and roll near the holidays, none of that post 12/20 warm up crap this year please. 

 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, that’s a damn sweet H500 look. I think first flakes for many of us in the next 7-10 days is getting more and more likely.

Which is a pretty normal time frame for those of us to the north and west. Usually from a frontal passage. The difference here is the follow up storm has a chance to be legit for a lot of us.

[Bob Chill]

52 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I was thinking that I hope thats not where the very long range looks are taking us (+AO).  Out there in lala land and is bound to change but I dont like losing the  +heights in AK and breaking that link with the ridging in Siberia.   You can see how fast that vortex retreats to pole and tries to hold hands with our Aleutian low.   

 On a glass half full note...maybe the scan ridge bullies the pattern anyway and we snap back to a -AO. 

It really doesn't matter much in Nov. Wavelengths are in transition and the climo base state of the trop pv is way up there near the pole. The fact that the trop pv is getting displaced so far south in early Nov is quite anomalous and atypical. It's either random choas or a sign that winter may in fact feature a displaced trop PV more often than one parked over santa's workshop. Won't know the answer for a while but current guidance is no doubt a net positive even if it's just a transitory shot and regression back to climo location.

The strat is a different beast. You only need a SSWE when the strat PV is strong. Years that start off with a weak strat PV generally feature high latitude blocking. Not always on our side of the pole but blocking in general. 09-10 featured a very weak strat pv early and it never recovered. I believe there was also a warming event thwt year but the gears were already turning well in advance. 

Personally, I'll root for any disruption or degradation of the strat PV as early as possible. Weak early with no sswe > strong early with a huge warming event. That's what (imo) we should be rooting for... anything and everything that prohibits a strong and consolidated strat PV. 

[poolz1]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It really doesn't matter much in Nov. Wavelengths are in transition and the climo base state of the trop pv is way up there near the pole. The fact that the trop pv is getting displaced so far south in early Nov is quite anomalous and atypical. It's either random choas or a sign that winter may in fact feature a displaced trop PV more often than one parked over santa's workshop. Won't know the answer for a while but current guidance is no doubt a net positive even if it's just a transitory shot and regression back to climo location.

The strat is a different beast. You only need a SSWE when the strat PV is strong. Years that start off with a weak strat PV generally feature high latitude blocking. Not always on our side of the pole but blocking in general. 09-10 featured a very weak strat pv early and it never recovered. I believe there was also a warming event thwt year but the gears were already turning well in advance. 

Personally, I'll root for any disruption or degradation of the strat PV as early as possible. Weak early with no sswe > strong early with a huge warming event. That's what (imo) we should be rooting for... anything and everything that prohibits a strong and consolidated strat PV. 

Great to have your contributions as we approach game time, Bob!  

The pattern advertised over the next 2 weeks is certainly an overall positive.  I agree.  Just not looking for a reversal of any kind...a pull back or brief reshuffle is fine and almost a guarantee. I wait for the weeklies to come out so I have the answer...lol. 

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill

welcome back. I find it funny that when the pattern sucks the long range discussion is dominated by fear of persistence, but when it’s good it’s dominated by fear of the flip. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill

welcome back. I find it funny that when the pattern sucks the long range discussion is dominated by fear of persistence, but when it’s good it’s dominated by fear of the flip. 

Amen

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I track the psychology of tracking winter storms more than I track actual winter storms these days lol.

It’s more predictable 

[Maestrobjwa]

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill

welcome back. I find it funny that when the pattern sucks the long range discussion is dominated by fear of persistence, but when it’s good it’s dominated by fear of the flip. 

It's accumulated trauma from the ghosts of failed winters past...

[Solution Man]

NATS won World Series, maybe times are changing 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Great to have your contributions as we approach game time, Bob!  

The pattern advertised over the next 2 weeks is certainly an overall positive.  I agree.  Just not looking for a reversal of any kind...a pull back or brief reshuffle is fine and almost a guarantee. I wait for the weeklies to come out so I have the answer...lol. 

Ha! I'm mostly done worrying about weeklies and seasonal stuff unless there's a nino or nina. Otherwise it's just not predictable enough and the only thing long range models do for us is to give us something to discuss that probably won't happen anyways. 

Nov is a very tricky month. Sometimes it tips the winter's hand and other times it's a complete headfake. One thing that's really grabbing my attention is the prog'd longwave pattern over the pacific. Below normal temps and heights from Japan to the aleutians. I expect the ssta plots to show a strengthening +PDO this month. I'll have to dig through the stats but if memory serves me, the majority of the +pdo winters have above normal snowfall. Get that going and odds tip in our favor. 

[clskinsfan]

Long range MJO forecasts all look pretty good still. With almost all of them running through 7-8-1 in the heart of winter. 

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill

welcome back. I find it funny that when the pattern sucks the long range discussion is dominated by fear of persistence, but when it’s good it’s dominated by fear of the flip. 

Yea, finally ready to root for cold again. Nov is snow is pretty rare in my yard. We'll see

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, finally ready to root for cold again. Nov is snow is pretty rare in my yard. We'll see

It'd be a little unusual to get it two Novembers in a row, wouldn't it?

[aldie 22]

I was hoping the consistent wet would come first then cold seems like it's going to be cold and mostly dry for a bit...not excited

[showmethesnow]

For those that live and die by each op run on our possible system that is a week out. Don't. You are far better off looking at the ensembles which will give you a far more accurate read to the mid and longer range forecasts. And the ensembles continue to show improvement in regards to the potential.

Below we see the 12z run of the EPS from yesterday. Note the drop of the trough in the east as well as the higher heights ridging in the northern Atlantic. Also look at the orientation of the height lines (black line) running through our region and off the coast. This really isn't a bad look.

 

But now compare the above to what we see with the latest 00Z run. We are seeing a deeper and farther west drop of the trough as well as a shifting westward of the higher heights in the northern Atlantic. Notice how the height lines through our region and running off the coast have responded? We are seeing a much sharper north/south orientation of this feature. This alignment is more conducive to tucking any low we do see form closer into the coast as well as giving more room for that low to intensify. It is also a more favorable setup for any potential phasing of NS/PV energy rotating around the trough with PAC energy riding underneath it. This is a pretty good upgrade from the look we saw above.

 

Now lets look at the surface in response to the 500's above. What we saw yesterday was high pressure situated in the northern Atlantic with cold air dropping into the Midwest and moving eastward. Notice the temp gradient through our region which is somewhat flat, SSW to ENE. With the means it washes out the lower pressure but generally it is situated a distance off our shores.

 

Now this is the latest run. Notice that we have seen the higher pressures in the northern Atlantic shifted westward. We are also seeing the colder air dropping deeper southward and its eastward progression has slowed somewhat. In response we see a sharper N/S gradient of the temp profile in the east compared to the above. This setup is allowing low formation much closer to the coast then the above. This look here shows a good deal of promise at this time.

 

Haven't posted the GEFS but that has improved as well. What we saw there was a pretty significant change at 500's over it's 12z run that brings it much more in line with the EPS.

 

Now though I like what I am seeing as well as the trends my expectations are low. It is November after all. BUT... I do see the possibilities. 

[winterymix]

Good posts, all.   Thanks.     

Chesapeake Bay water temperatures are in 50s to 60 degrees f.

If we get a coastal low runner, better hope we have persistent NNW winds at the surface during any white stuff.

 

[poolz1]

Another significant negative SOI value today.  - 34.49

On a strat note:  

 

[PDIII]

11 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Missed all the model fun today . Just as others have said . ...the h5 pattern alot of guidance is spitting out looks awesome! 

Maybe it's the follow up of the follow up that delivers . Euro hr 240 h5 is close to a big setup I'd think . 50/50 a little further southeast possibly . That follow up vort diving southeast might cutoff in future frames.  11/15/18 wsw repeat would be what the dr ordered imo.

I like this map

 

[WxUSAF]

Euro brought back a little light snow next Monday and nobody posted it?  

[Eskimo Joe]

I was born in Philly during the Veterans Day event in '87.  My dad said it was not forecast well even in Philly, but the rest of the winter was pretty bland.  Would be funny to get that Monday event almost 30 years to the day of the anniversary.

[mattie g]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro brought back a little light snow next Monday and nobody posted it?

And Twitter doesn't count!

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, mattie g said:

And Twitter doesn't count!

November snow is so common for jackpotville they don’t even think it’s worth posting here!