Wonderdog Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Latest CFS runs concur. November may be kinda fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS and EPS suggest a somewhat legitimate Day 9 threat window for sure. Something to casually keep an eye on. Long way off, but yeah. Possibly a threat for the western highlands as it fits climo there. Places east of the mountains- realistically, maybe a period to watch for first flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Long way off, but yeah. Possibly a threat for the western highlands as it fits climo there. Places east of the mountains- realistically, maybe a period to watch for first flakes in the air. 18z GFS suggests flakes in the air Day 9. Actually like 13/20 GEFS members are somewhat interesting for this time of year, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 19 hours ago, frd said: If you believe the notion that this will be a back loaded winter, combined with a possibly colder and more active November leads me to think this March will have higher odds of snow and cold. With the exception of last March, we have trended to winters lasting longer, and starting later in this decade. ................. Granted October 2009 was much colder , then November turned warmer in time Yeah I never count March out -- it can be a lot of fun sometimes if things line up just right. In a couple of the "bad" years, our best storm of the season was mid or late-March. It will be interesting to see if there's any similarity to 2009 this time around, one obvious difference is the Oct cold in 2009 seemed much more widespread and this year it was cold west/warm east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 18 hours ago, frd said: Not to jinx us, but love seeing the orientation of the PV combined with the location and from there tons of snow will be put down just to our NW and a breeding ground for some very cold air delivery, eventually a direct discharge. We did not have this last year. Also, it seems the atmosphere, at least so far, is conducive to showing ( and delivering ) a good pattern. Hopefully any turn to the milder later in November is just a reload, or a brief moderation. Still like a normal December with snowfall opportunities. Also I like seeing as much early cold as we can over the GL region.....the quicker we can get the lakes cooled down and partially frozen, the less moderating effect they have on the cold shots coming down from Canada. Since so many of our events have at least a portion of the subforum flirting with the freezing line, every degree matters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 So far, so good with the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Can we pin this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 8 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Definitely a signal on the Gefs for possible winter weather around 150 hrs or so . Probably favors just to the north in Pa and decent elevation as depicted but hey ...its early most of us would be satisfied seeing white rain or flurries I like the look on the euro too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 0z Euro is a good run for NY state and central/northern NE for next Fri-Sat.. 6-10". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Maybe the early November cold has legs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Wow at the GFS lol. That end of week system wouldn’t take a lot of tweaking to at least be interesting. And the next week storm ... chilly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Wow at the GFS lol. That end of week system wouldn’t take a lot of tweaking to at least be interesting. And the next week storm ... chilly. Impressive cold for Mid November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Wow at the GFS lol. That end of week system wouldn’t take a lot of tweaking to at least be interesting. And the next week storm ... chilly. It was showing up a few days ago then went away and now it seems to be coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Still something there... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Looks like today is the beginning of a persistent pattern. GEFS front 5 days ---> last 5 days. D11-16 looking like an even colder pattern with the scan ridge pushing and maybe a -AO starting to form. That Aleutian low looks great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Are we back to the same cycle of cold November that turns into Torchmas yet again? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 What da? GFS advertising the Day after tomorrow around mid month.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Euro is really close to something for next Friday. Verbatim it snows on the western highlands and even N central MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Pretty damn impressive h5 look. I would call that a triple ridge bridge.. PNA/EPO/WPO, and the N Atlantic ain't no slouch either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Are we back to the same cycle of cold November that turns into Torchmas yet again? Probably. Well have 65 degrees with bad air quality just in time for Santa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Comparing to 0z ..its stronger and quicker with the cold push and a bit stronger with the sw vort coming out the Baja . If we can time things up a bit better in future runs . Verbatim its flakes for northern folks as u mentioned Fun to look at, but climo is pretty hostile in early November for anything legit. That being said, if the guidance is correct with these extreme h5 looks, it's not impossible that some parts of our region could see some frozen. Much more likely for N PA into central and N NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Fun to look at, but climo is pretty hostile in early November for anything legit. That being said, if the guidance is correct with these extreme h5 looks, it's not impossible that some parts of our region could see some frozen. Much more likely for N PA into central and N NE.Eps favors those climo regions you mentioned. That's OK tho.. Just keep sending down the cold and laying down the snow. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Eps favors those climo regions you mentioned. That's OK tho.. Just keep sending down the cold and laying down the snow. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Not bad for Nov 9th. SNE made a thread already lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Quick glance at the 12z Euro ens mean snowfall is as expected- a moderate elevation event for N PA into NY state, central and northern NE- although like last run, there are hints of first flakes for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not bad for Nov 9th. SNE made a thread already lol. Unfortunately for SNE snow weenies, they are likely going to be on the outside looking in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Snow88 is perpetually confused. Thankfully he doesn't crap up our subforum with his dopey posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Euro is really close to something for next Friday. Verbatim it snows on the western highlands and even N central MD I thought the gfs was really close to something too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: O Mid-Atlantic Weenies, heed the warning of your thy collector of Winter Weenie Souls: Proceed with caution. D7: Euphoria as the Euro reels you in. D6: On the train to the mountaintop as the King doubles down. D5: Still going strong. Euro hasn’t budged. Picking up speed to paradise! D4: Euro stepped back but we have plenty of time to bring it back. Unconcerned. D3: It begins. D2:Time is running out and you can’t escape. D1: Preparing for the end. D0: The end. You are a crazy man lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Snow88 is perpetually confused. Thankfully he doesn't crap up our subforum with his dopey posts. Partially? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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