frd Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Brrr......... having to buy several Chapsticks...... , one for the car, one for work, and one for home. A critical need for us weather weenies.... Plus, I keep losing them, then I freak out. Solution - buy a lot ! Early November looks cold with very low dew points ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Would it be reasonable to say that, more often than not, most LR modeled extremes (hot, cold, HL blocking, etc) tend to moderate somewhat as we get closer in time? That has been my general experience. I figure it has something to do with compounding of modeled errors out in time creating a tendency to overdo things a bit..... Everything except heat. We almost always over perform on that one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Would it be reasonable to say that, more often than not, most LR modeled extremes (hot, cold, HL blocking, etc) tend to moderate somewhat as we get closer in time? That has been my general experience. I figure it has something to do with compounding of modeled errors out in time creating a tendency to overdo things a bit.....I think this is generally true. But, there are instances where you can can say things "should" trend either way. With the advertised h5 look... One can see how an ensemble would wash things milder out in time. True cross polar flow, if this look stays, will produce colder anomalies than currently advertised. We have seen this a handful of times already this fall with the Western cold. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 16 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Would it be reasonable to say that, more often than not, most LR modeled extremes (hot, cold, HL blocking, etc) tend to moderate somewhat as we get closer in time? That has been my general experience. I figure it has something to do with compounding of modeled errors out in time creating a tendency to overdo things a bit..... I think it’s more that long range ensembles typically show a pattern washed out in space and time, where there’s typically more variability, especially in winter, due to storm systems that aren’t seen in long range ensemble means. As you get closer, the ensembles resolve that variability. For example, next week still looks BN overall, but it was looking like wall-to-wall cold a couple days ago. Now you’re seeing the ensembles pick up on a brief warming around next Wednesday due to SW flow ahead of the next cold front. That said, the gfs and GEFS definitely have a cold bias in the long range, and there’s also a tendency to overdo HL blocking. I’m buying the cold look more right now because the Eps is very bullish on cross polar flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: Yeah I seem to remember last year's advertised long range cold didn't verify very often, if I'm not mistaken. Be nice to see long range trends be somewhat better this year. Save a lot of angst. Taking the LR with more grains of salt than usual is what will save angst, lol For me...until we get a better performance...LR is barely worth looking at. All the pretty map posting and all that...nope, lol BUT, that's just my weenism...the more experienced ones will remind us that there is still value in LR watching if you know what expectations to have (or not have) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Certainly a very cold look for next weekend on the ensembles. I’d wait until this weekend before being comfortable with how cold that ends up. Colder looks in the long range tend to modify with time. 18z GEFS has highs in the 30's to around 40 for next weekend with pretty much everyone below freezing for lows. Low 20's for lows Far N+W. Pretty Darn cold for the 1st half of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I think it’s more that long range ensembles typically show a pattern washed out in space and time, where there’s typically more variability, especially in winter, due to storm systems that aren’t seen in long range ensemble means. As you get closer, the ensembles resolve that variability. For example, next week still looks BN overall, but it was looking like wall-to-wall cold a couple days ago. Now you’re seeing the ensembles pick up on a brief warming around next Wednesday due to SW flow ahead of the next cold front. That said, the gfs and GEFS definitely have a cold bias in the long range, and there’s also a tendency to overdo HL blocking. I’m buying the cold look more right now because the Eps is very bullish on cross polar flow. Ah yes, good point that the ensemble washout wouldn't "see" brief warming periods related to return flow, etc....which then start to factor back in closer in time and moderate the original extreme. I think your approach of analyzing the background state and other supporting factors (or lack of)....like the cross-polar flow you mentioned.....is a smart way to evaluate whether the LR might be on to something or if it is just out to lunch (or trying to lure weenies into early reapings). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Saw that. And many Eps members showing pretty strong ( esp this time of year ) sprawling highs penetrating the Conus day 9 -10 . We got 5 or 6 inches last year on Nov 15, maybe an early start again for this season? Would be really nice to get a little appetizer on the board up front, say a couple inches or even some mood flakes. The years where we're completely shutout with torches or "no chance" patterns until late Feb or March are the worst...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 FWIW, 0z GEFS keeps the cross polar flow HL look throughout the entire run's mid-long range, where yesterday's runs broke it down late. Very much EPO/WPO/PNA driven with the AO/NAO going very positive late. EPS has the AO/NAO more neutral at D10. Eta...6z GEFS just loaded on TT and it's pretty similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: FWIW, 0z GEFS keeps the cross polar flow HL look throughout the entire run's mid-long range, where yesterday's runs broke it down late. Very much EPO/WPO/PNA driven with the AO/NAO going very positive late. EPS has the AO/NAO more neutral at D10. Eta...6z GEFS just loaded on TT and it's pretty similar. 0z EPS has the same general look at the end of its run (hr 360).. +AO/NAO, EPO/WPO +heights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 IMO - Someone should shut this down and start the November Thread! November is now the Mid- to Long range AND we need a clean state as the atmosphere gets us into potentials for colder and maybe something... although not really seeing that yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 I changed the title... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I changed the title... You bastard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Like 3 days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 We cold November , we roast in December , unless you wan to gamble against the new normal. Maybe a December - NAO will provide the means to a colder outcome in the East . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 38 minutes ago, frd said: We cold November , we roast in December , unless you wan to gamble against the new normal. Maybe a December - NAO will provide the means to a colder outcome in the East . If we torch in December, we best score in November. Work with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 18 minutes ago, Scraff said: If we torch in December, we best score in November. Work with me. Even areas that scored last November with snow went on to meager seasonal snowfall totals. I am stirring the pot about December. I can see this December going in several directions. It could buck the trend of recent years where November was cold and then the following December went warm or warmer. Hm's post about the period after 12/20 makes you think. Last December had the feeling it would be a more normal month until the ensembles starting painting a different picture. Several forecasters had a snowy holiday period but alas that did not work out. We very well could cycle back to a favorable pattern later in December , even if we turn milder at some point. Again for us, it would be great to get a Western based - NAO in December to increase our odds combined with a -AO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 28 minutes ago, frd said: Even areas that scored last November with snow went on to meager seasonal snowfall totals. I am stirring the pot about December. I can see this December going in several directions. It could buck the trend of recent years where November was cold and then the following December went warm or warmer. Hm's post about the period after 12/20 makes you think. Last December had the feeling it would be a more normal month until the ensembles starting painting a different picture. Several forecasters had a snowy holiday period but alas that did not work out. We very well could cycle back to a favorable pattern later in December , even if we turn milder at some point. Again for us, it would be great to get a Western based - NAO in December to increase our odds combined with a -AO. Well lets throw a CP Nino in there too so we have the holy grail for the MA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Well lets throw a CP Nino in there too so we have the holy grail for the MA. Seeing that Aleutian low pop up on guidance is making me feel better. Going back to those QBO analogs, that was a feature of many of the “good” ones in that set. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Possibly something to watch. Granted it is a few hours down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: Possibly something to watch. Granted it is a few hours down the line. that's the one! it can snow in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 19 hours ago, BristowWx said: that's the one! it can snow in November Quite so.....we got 6 inches on Nov 15 last year..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Euro dropping Barney’s hammer next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Impressive 850 temps -11 , -12 30s for highs n+w ..nice . Even drops trace snow in Carolinas lol Like clockwork 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 46 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Impressive 850 temps -11 , -12 30s for highs n+w ..nice . Even drops trace snow in Carolinas lol November is the new January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 28 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: November is the new January! Cold and active Novembers correlates with March the best. Cold and snowy Decembers I read correlate better with the period Jan 1 to Feb 28 th. Of course as we know there are exceptions. If you believe the notion that this will be a back loaded winter, combined with a possibly colder and more active November leads me to think this March will have higher odds of snow and cold. With the exception of last March, we have trended to winters lasting longer, and starting later in this decade. @MountainGeek This is interesting Granted October 2009 was much colder , then November turned warmer in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Impressive -WPO and +PNA with a -AO and some nice ridging in the NAO domain as well on the EPS. I am totally down with an h5 pattern like this becoming a mainstay for winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Latest CFS runs concur. November may be kinda fun. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Latest CFS runs concur. November may be kinda fun. Not to jinx us, but love seeing the orientation of the PV combined with the location and from there tons of snow will be put down just to our NW and a breeding ground for some very cold air delivery, eventually a direct discharge. We did not have this last year. Also, it seems the atmosphere, at least so far, is conducive to showing ( and delivering ) a good pattern. Hopefully any turn to the milder later in November is just a reload, or a brief moderation. Still like a normal December with snowfall opportunities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 3 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Impressive 850 temps -11 , -12 30s for highs n+w ..nice . Even drops trace snow in Carolinas lol GEFS and EPS suggest a somewhat legitimate Day 9 threat window for sure. Something to casually keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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