BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Perspecta Weather's winter outlook includes all three of my analogs! https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2019/10/14/800-am-2019-2020-winter-outlook-by-perspecta-weather?fbclid=IwAR13Rxrc-fcKctrDYjW9Vn-sN6p2tUPG08K_ilYBtCUM4KXIY5GX1155IDY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 3 hours ago, frd said: @poolz1 a little tidbit for you Take 2004/5 and remove the god awful start and replace it with anything remotely mediocre and that becomes a pretty good year. Just a thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 17, 2019 Author Share Posted October 17, 2019 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Take 2004/5 and remove the god awful start and replace it with anything remotely mediocre and that becomes a pretty good year. Just a thought. Hell, take last year and sub in a "normal" December and it ends up being borderline great year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 This is pretty remarkable and a huge driver to the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Again, the GEFS is not backing down on the warming over Siberia. Its actually a pretty big reversal in temps at 10mb. From much below normal to highly anomalous warmth occurs over the course of about 7 days and continues through the end of the run. I like the elongation predicted...nosing into Canada. Also note the strengthening stops/pauses?.... Nothing Earth shattering but notable as @frd pointed out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Interesting thoughts from Cranky on the upcoming winter: http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e101819.htm Something you've seen me post since the summer and the process continues to reinforce. We just watched two October storm setups born off this very pattern being emulated by our stream flows. We'll watch the next attempt to do the same.Does this persist into winter? If so I continue to say we could see several more classic arctic outbreaks and classic coastal winter storm tracks.I am not talking about a ceaseless onslaught. The overall winter pattern in my opinion likely features the blander milder November, a colder active December, then January/February maybe a little above norms, with March/April possibly featuring another late period colder/active return.Yet within all of that? Expect a few more classic outbreaks and storm tracks.Of course, it is still early, and it will be another 4 to 8 weeks before we truly know if the support we see now is still in play by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 NOAA predicts warmer than normal in our region..wetter as well. We shall see. I have gotten used to warmer than normal temps. Almost expected. It’s a crap chute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Typhoon Tip and others in the New England thread don't pay much attention to the Climate models. They just expect " the rust colors to be spread throughout most of the country". Keep the faith Bristow and pick up a new "toy"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Personally I prefer that we change to a wet pattern first then around Thanksgiving have the cold pattern on our doorstep. I could give two squats if it's cold on Halloween....too early 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 On 10/18/2019 at 8:27 PM, BristowWx said: NOAA predicts warmer than normal in our region..wetter as well. We shall see. I have gotten used to warmer than normal temps. Almost expected. It’s a crap chute. Even if we end up with a warmer winter, would rather roll the dice with wetter than normal and just time up cold shots with precip. Doubtful its wall to wall warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Hopefully a preview.... If the GEFS is correct, the MJO will have been in 8/1/2 for 40 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 12 hours ago, nj2va said: Even if we end up with a warmer winter, would rather roll the dice with wetter than normal and just time up cold shots with precip. Doubtful its wall to wall warmth. Agree on all points. Leesburg 04 scenario is exactly what we want. I’m feeling good about this winter which is not far away now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Siberian snow cover should resume shortly . Also read that sea ice should resume making a recovery form recent all time lows. Area with highest opportunity to improve would be NE of Greenland, extending to the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 From bluewave, and this is pretty remarkable. I hope to see some sort of reshuffle down the road that has some staying power. From bluewave 's recent post : <<<<<. We just need some help from the Pacific. The -PNA/SE Ridge combo has been running the table this year. 2019 pattern to date >>>>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 7 hours ago, frd said: From bluewave, and this is pretty remarkable. I hope to see some sort of reshuffle down the road that has some staying power. From bluewave 's recent post : <<<<<. We just need some help from the Pacific. The -PNA/SE Ridge combo has been running the table this year. 2019 pattern to date >>>>> Is it going to take big changes to get things the way we want them for winter? If it is, then i guess we got time, which is good for us i suppose. The qbo and the IOD has me most intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: Is it going to take big changes to get things the way we want them for winter? If it is, then i guess we got time, which is good for us i suppose. The qbo and the IOD has me most intrigued. The SST seasonal models weaken the very positive IOD in the months ahead. The QBO is descending, but there is some debate as to when , if at all, we reap the benefits here in the East. Some say later in the winter, while others say December and onward. Some interesting comparisons were posted a while ago in this thread regarding the QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Big time NA snow cover advance in the days ahead. This is really essential for cold air delivery in the early season . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 More for informational purposes but I am sure there is a link to sensible weather, regardless is rather sad indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 I am not liking this set up. Warm waters shifting further West in time. Wonder if this effects the middle Pacific and feedback towards a WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 #Enough of the #hashtags, Cohen. We #reallydontcare. #enoughisenough 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 I'd like at least 30-32 of snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 4 hours ago, frd said: I am not liking this set up. Warm waters shifting further West in time. Wonder if this effects the middle Pacific and feedback towards a WAR. Well that looks ominous...(and someone commented that such may signal "trough in the west and ridge in the east" (again)...Oof. Just why...If it is like last year, maybe we can still squeeze out our average...(Hey, at least it wouldn't be just us getting screwed...the whole northeast would be too, right? Lol Overall, I'm als)o wondering if we can pull off a nino for a third year in a row next year (2020-21)...or do things go back to nina? (a nina would be tough because then we may not see above average snow for another couple years depending on the strength!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 2 hours ago, mappy said: I'd like at least 30-32 of snow this year. Anything above 20 is usually my mark...I call that good. 30 is what I call great...and 40+ is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Maybe the safest prediction is, well...for things to be like they were last year? Lol (maybe with even a little less?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Anything above 20 is usually my mark...I call that good. 30 is what I call great...and 40+ is awesome! 30-32 is my climo, i always wish for that. anything else is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 This thread is a serious case of bipolar disorder 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: This thread is a serious case of bipolar disorder Just a warm up dude. Wait till December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: This thread is a serious case of bipolar disorder I blame all the conflicting signals giving long range forecasters a case of the we-don't-knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Just for the hell of it, I took a peek at the latest edition of the EPS weeklies. As we all know by now, they are to be taken with a serious grain of salt. Looks anomalously warm for the whole run(outside of maybe 2 weeks that look normal) for the eastern third of the US. That takes us through the first week of Dec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Just for the hell of it, I took a peek at the latest edition of the EPS weeklies. As we all know by now, they are to be taken with a serious grain of salt. Looks anomalously warm for the whole run(outside of maybe 2 weeks that look normal) for the eastern third of the US. That takes us through the first week of Dec. Fits the Seasonal outlook. For those that follow the weeklies may I suggest......... some Zoloft 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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