40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 9 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If I was going to try and interpret that precip map, which isn’t easy, I’d say it screams a cutter pattern. How else do you end up with positive anomalies along the apps and Ohio Valley and simultaneous abnormal dryness along the southeast and mid Atlantic coasts? Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 On 11/12/2019 at 3:37 PM, wxdude64 said: Hey, I see some brown! All the ones up here I have seen are zero brown, all black!! Black is better for winter storms etc... so your good. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UniversesBelowNormal Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Not a big fan of the Pacific this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 16 hours ago, UniversesBelowNormal said: Not a big fan of the Pacific this Winter. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UniversesBelowNormal Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 No established ENSO pattern.. in non-El Nino it's been a bad run for the last 5 years. I also see that the jet stream is generally lifting north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 3 hours ago, UniversesBelowNormal said: No established ENSO pattern.. in non-El Nino it's been a bad run for the last 5 years. I also see that the jet stream is generally lifting north. I don’t disagree totally but the last enso neutral winter we had was 2013/14 so I don’t think we can use a “trend” to dismiss this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 On 11/16/2019 at 2:08 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Miller B. Exactly. But for us it’s trouble with the exception of when those cutters can cut close to the west side of the apps before they jump. We can get front end out of those with some hp to our ne. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 Webb says winter will arrive! Although early/mid January seems pretty normal for a Nino, not that early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Webb says winter will arrive! Although early/mid January seems pretty normal for a Nino, not that early. Yea in most ninos with a torch December the flip happens sometime in January, typically in a step down that starts early January. So no idea how he gets that conclusion. I agree the progression based on the mjo is ahead. If we actually do enter the warm phases early December it’s unlikely that it lasts into January. Last year we entered mjo hell about Dec 15 and by early Jan we were getting colder and that was a record long warm phase wave. His timing of a month long warm phase mjo induced torch seems odd imo. Maybe there are other factors he isn’t articulating well in the posts here. But his January flip idea wouldn’t be early either, actually typical for a nino. ETA: it’s kind of like he is the anti JB. Where everything is skewed towards the best case scenario for snow with JB...Webb skews everything towards the worst. So getting a typical outcome is like the best case scenario to him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Raleigh on board with similar pattern evolution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Raleigh on board with similar pattern evolution everybody leaning on Nino climo evolution. They seem hesitant to think the beginning of December might be coldish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UniversesBelowNormal Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Not a bad roll into Winter for the NAO, I don't like the AO though (+AO wave) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now